Date: August 20th, 2019
Livestock trade was steady to higher to start this week. Cattle futures opened higher, fats ran $1+ higher and feeders $2+ higher in the morning hours but both faded as the day progressed. Lean hog futures opened higher and proceeded to add value throughout the trading session. Beef packer margins continue to climb and provide incentive to ramp up the chainspeeds along with another active weekend schedule.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/19/2019
Total Receipts: 1,749 Last Week: 2,533 Last Year: 5,170
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves steady on a limited test, yearling steers 1.00 to 2.00 higher, yearling heifers steady. Demand moderate to good, supply light.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/19/2019
Total Receipts: 2,382 Last Week: 5,252 Last Year: 4,144
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers sold 4.00-6.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves not well tested. Demand moderate to good. Quality plain to average. Triple digit temps are expected to continue for the next few days. This along with an uncertain market has limited receipts.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/19/2019
Total Receipts: 1,369 Last Week: 1,531 Last Year: N/A
Compared to last week: Steers 2.00-3.00 higher. Heifers 4.00-5.00 higher. Demand good. Quality good. Slaughter cows mostly steady. In a light test. Slaughter bulls mostly steady to 2.00 lower.
Cattle slaughter from Monday estimated at 115,000 head, matching last Monday but down 2,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Monday estimated at 472,000 head, up 14,000 compared to a week ago and up 26,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values firm to higher on moderate demand and light offerings for a total of 60 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__239.13 +.44
Select Cutout__214.52 +1.26
CME Feeder Index__136.33 -1.27
CME Lean Hog Index__79.02 -.32
Pork Carcass Cutout__84.98 -1.28
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__55.66 +.57, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__71.91 -.96
National Wtd Avg Live Price__54.03 -1.18, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__69.71 +.06
August live cattle into a new contract low at $99.70 last week, the first time a nearby contract has been below the $100 level since October of 2016. Support is down at $94.30 with a new recent high on Monday at $101.75, a gap from there up to $105.05, followed by another up to $107.55, the 2 limit lower moves from last Monday and Tuesday. August feeders with a new contract low down at $127.65 but since has filled one gap and nearly the next with a gap remaining from $137.77 up to $138.65. October lean hogs holding a long term lower trend with choppy/sideways trade so far this month from $61.50 to $70.82.
News and volume is fairly light to start the week, some beneficial rains fell over dry parts of IA over the weekend providing the initial pressure on Monday along with a non-threatening nearby forecast.
Export inspections for the week ending August 15th still showing slow corn exports, 20.1 MBU and over 280 MBU with 2 weeks left to meet the USDA estimate. Soybean inspections exceeded expectations at 42.6 MBU with 102 MBU left to ship in the next couple weeks. Grain sorghum continues to hit pace at 2.2 MBU this past week and 6.3 MBU left to meet the USDA estimate. Wheat shipments still good but not great at 18.0 MBU. Mexico, Japan and China were the major destinations for all grains.
Corn dented now at 15% compared to 41% last year and 30% average, all except the Southeast remain way behind. Conditions dropped 1% to 56% rated good to excellent and 1% higher in the poor to very poor to now 14%.
Soybeans setting pods at 68% compared to 90% last year and 85% average. Conditions also dropped 1% to 53% rated good to excellent and up 1% to 14% rated poor to very poor.
Grain Sorghum is now 31% coloring compared to 45% last year and 43% average, 21% of the crop is mature. Conditions down 1% to 65% rated G/E while P/VP +1 to 7%.Winter wheat harvest now 93% complete, WA still behind at 69% complete compared to 82% last year and 87% average. Spring wheat harvest at 16% compared to 56% last year and 49% for a 5-year average.
Overnight, grain markets were higher from the 1% loss in ratings and below average yields found in SD & OH. Corn finished 4 to 5 higher, soybeans 6 higher and wheat steady to 2 higher.
This week’s trade will be impacted by weather and forecast changes along with the highly publicized and typically bullish Pro Farmer Crop Tour. The Pro Farmer Tour Western Leg wrapped up SD last night and the Eastern Leg was in OH. The results are as follows…
• SD Corn 154.1 -13.4% from LY tour & -4.5 BPA from 3 year avg, USDA August 157 -1.9% from LY Final
• OH Corn 154.4 -14% & -10 BPA, USDA August 160 -14%
• SD Soybeans 3X3 area with 832.9 pods -19% from LY tour & -14% from 3 year avg, USDA 45 BPA -2.2%
• OH Soybeans 764 pods -39% & -33%, USDA 48 -17%
Heavy rains in the forecast from Eastern KS & NE through southern IN later this week. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook showing normal to above normal temps west with below normal in the Northern Plains and creeping into the Western Corn Belt with above normal moisture for the eastern half of the U.S. and normal to below normal west.
September corn down into a new recent low at $3.58 ¼ last week with support next at $3.52 ½ and a gap from $3.79 to $3.85 ¼. The December contract dipped down to $3.69 last week with support next down at $3.63 ¾ and a gap from $3.88 to $3.92 ¾. September soybeans with support near $8.40 and resistance up at $8.84. The November contract with support around $8.60 and resistance up at $8.96. September KC wheat holding a lower trend with the contract low down at $3.80 ¾ and resistance up around $4.20. September Chicago wheat trending lower into a new recent low at $4.64 with support next down near $4.53 and resistance up at $4.80. September Soybean Meal trending lower with the contract low down at $286.9, support at $291 and resistance around $300.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700