Date: August 9th, 2019
Export sales and shipments this past week were friendly for beef while pork sales were light, yet China still made a small purchase. Livestock futures were mixed staying in the green for most of the trading session supported by higher equities but not allowed to rally too much with corn showing some strength the past couple days. Light volume cash feedlot trade continued mostly in the North at $114 live and $180 to $185 dressed, still holding steady compared to a week ago.
OKC West Livestock Auction – El Reno, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/7/2019
Total Receipts: 6,759 Last Week: 8,051 Last Year: 1,400
Compared to last week: Feeder steers sold mostly steady. Feeder heifers traded 2.00-3.00 higher. Demand good. Steer and heifer calves were too lightly tested for an accurate trend but a lower undertone was noted. Demand light to moderate as many producers are running out of good pasture land with nutritional value due to the drought. Quality plain to average.
Farmers and Ranchers Livestock Commission Co. – Salina, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/8/2019
Total Receipts: 3,599 Last Week: 3,699
Compared to last week: Steers 700-800 lbs 1.00- 5.00 lower, 800-950 lbs 2.00-3.00 higher, with 850 lbs lower undertone noted, 700 lbs and under higher undertone. Heifers overall higher undertone noted.
Winter Livestock – Pratt, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/8/2019
Total Receipts: 4,126 Last Week: 7,489 Last Year: 2,217
Compared to last week’s feeder special: Feeder steers mostly 1.00 to 3.00 lower with instances of 7.00 to 10.00 lower on 750-850 weights. Feeder heifers 700-850 lbs sold steady to 3.00 higher. Majority of consignments are green cattle off grass. Overall demand good to very good, quality average to attractive. No market test available for calves or slaughter cows.
Cattle slaughter from Thursday estimated at 121,000 head, matching a week ago and up 3,000 compared to last year. Week to date at 476,000 head, down 1,000 from last week but up 3,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Thursday estimated at 476,000 head, up 4,000 compared to a week ago and up 11,000 compared to a year ago. Week to date at 1,852,000 head, down 12,000 compared to a week ago but up 74,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values firm on Choice and weak on Select on moderate demand and light to moderate offerings for a total of 117 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__216.88 +.39
Select Cutout__192.37 -.34
CME Feeder Index__141.86 +.25
CME Lean Hog Index__82.85 -.58
Pork Carcass Cutout__88.69 +.29
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__73.03 -1.24
National Wtd Avg Live Price__58.33 -.92, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__72.01 -1.52
August live cattle with support near $107 then around $104 with resistance up from $109 to $109.60. August feeders choppy this past month but showing a nearby lower trend with support down around $136 and resistance up at the recent high at $143.90 then at $146. August lean hogs expire next week with a recent test of the contract lows down at $73.95 and resistance up near $81. The October contract is holding a lower trend with support near $62 and resistance up around $74.
Over in the grains, soybeans led the way higher has the extended forecasts not showing much relief from the persistent dry conditions in the Eastern Corn Belt. Export sales were poor for corn, mixed for soybeans and better for wheat this past week with China even taking a cargo of HRS. Most expect small decreases to world wheat production in many areas on this next crop report to be released Monday. The U.S. SRW crop is also smaller this year with many looking at feeding wheat over corn both domestically and worldwide. Chicago wheat futures moved to a new record high over KC wheat yesterday which based on quality is hard to fathom when comparing low pro feed wheat to high quality bread flour wheat. The domestic flour mill basis though is making up for some of that spread by pushing basis levels higher as we wrap up wheat harvest and approach fall crop harvest.
Overnight, grain markets were firm building upon yesterday’s strength. Corn finished 2 higher, soybeans finished 6 higher and wheat steady to 5 higher.
News very light overnight as we trade weather heading into the weekend and then the USDA August crop report coming out Monday morning at 11. Pre report average trade estimate for corn planted acres is at 88 million, down 3.7 million from July, harvested at 80.05, yield at 164.9 for a production estimate at 13.193 billion bushels compared to 13.875 last month. Soybean planted acres at 81, up 1 million form July, harvested at 79.9, yield at 47.6 for a production estimate at 3.8 billion bushels compared to 3.845 in July. Old crop ending stocks are expected to increase slightly from decreases in export demand while new crop stocks for corn at 1.62 billion bushels down from 2.01 billion in July and soybeans stocks at 821 million bushels compared to 795 last month.
Heavy rains in the forecast for IA and the Dakotas through Monday but beyond that light chances of up to an inch throughout the rest of the Corn Belt over this next week. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook pulling above normal temps from the South across most the U.S., PNW and the Northeast still showing below normal. Precipitation is now below normal for the Eastern Corn Belt and Southwest with above normal in the North. The 8-14 day outlook looks worse with above normal temps and below normal moisture for all major growing areas.
September corn down into a new recent low at $3.87 ¼ last week with support next at $3.77 and resistance up at $4.30. The December contract dipped down to $3.97 ¼ last week with support next down at $3.88 with resistance up at $4.36. September soybeans into a new recent low on Monday at $8.41 ½ with support next down near $8.30 and resistance up around $8.90. The November contract dipped down to $8.54 ½ on Monday with support next down near $8.45 and resistance up near the $9.00 level. September KC wheat holding a lower trend with the contract low down at $3.92 ¾ and resistance up around $4.50. September Chicago wheat breaking the lower trend in place since late July with support around $4.74 and resistance up at $5.07. September Soybean Meal trending lower with the contract low down at $286.9, resistance up at $298.50 then $307.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700