Date: April 3rd, 2019
KS cash feedlot trade going early this week at $121 to $124 live, down another couple dollars from last week, quality and actual origin though in question. April Live Cattle futures still hanging north of $126 with some trade in IA yesterday up to $128 live. All the chatter for hogs was positive yesterday as the market expects continued Chinese demand for U.S. pork with now outbreaks of both Foot and Mouth, Bird Flu being reported in China.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 04/01/20019
Receipts: 7,405 Last Week: 7,049 Year Ago: 1,912
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 5.00 higher with instances of 8.00 higher on 750-800 lbs. Feeder heifers steady to 3.00 higher. Steer calves 1.00-6.00 higher. Heifer calves 6.00-9.00 higher.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 04/01/2019
Receipts: 2256 Last Week: 2696 Year Ago: 660
Compared to last week: Steers 5.00-7.00 lower. Heifers mostly steady to 2.00 higher. Demand good. Quality good.
OKC West Livestock Auction – El Reno, OK
Calf Sale for 04/02/2019
Compared to last week: Steer and heifer calves sold sharply higher, few comparable sales were 3.00-5.00 higher with instances of up to 8.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 120,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and up 2,000 compared to a year ago. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 476,000 head, up 5,000 from a week ago and up 13,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values lower on light to moderate demand and heavy offerings for a total of 141 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__225.73 -1.11
Select Cutout__218.49 -.84
CME Feeder Index__142.50 +.08
CME Lean Hog Index__76.78 +.98
Pork Carcass Cutout__81.71 -.44
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live Price__55.92 no comp, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__75.75 no comp
National Wtd Avg Live Price__57.25 -.42, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__75.14 -.14
April live cattle hit a new contract high at $130.45 back on March 21st but since has broken through the long term uptrend and hit a new 2 month low last Friday at $125.62. The next support area is down near $123.50. April feeders still trying to hold a higher trend with support at $143.50 and resistance up near $151. April lean hogs with a new contract high last week at $81.75, resistance next near $84 from last summer then $92.82 from July 2017.
The soy complex led the grains higher yesterday while corn was steady. Wheat opened sharply lower, Chicago came back to finish higher, while KC and MPLS stayed in the red. Spread trading dominated the 3 wheat exchanges. Old crop U.S. offers are competitive but new crop offers from both Russian and EU sources are coming in much cheaper, even before freight factored in. Chinese trade delegates are back in D.C. this week, all hoping to reach a final deal by the end of April now.
Overnight, grains were higher with corn, soybeans and Chicago wheat making new highs for the week, soybeans and wheat able to get back most of last week’s losses as well. Corn finished 1 to 2 higher, soybeans 2 higher and wheat 1 to 4 higher.
South Korea remains active buying more optional origin corn for October through November delivery. There a few wheat tenders out this week as well. No private sales announced by USDA though this morning.
This week’s forecast still calling for heavy rains in the PNW, Southeast and East Coast but still some scattered rains across the Midwest. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook showing normal to above normal precipitation for all except Texas and above normal temps for the southern half of the U.S.
May corn with a new contact low Friday at $3.56, support next at $3.52 ½ (March contract low) and resistance up near $3.80. May soybeans still holding a lower trend since February with resistance at $9.12 and support at $8.83. May KC wheat with resistance up at $4.54, contract low at $4.18 ¼. May Chicago wheat with resistance up at $4.78, contract low at $4.27. May soybean meal still choppy with resistance at $316.50 and support at $303.60.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700