Date: March 6th, 2019
Lean hog futures continued to build upon recent support, now up over $5 from recent lows. Cattle futures were mixed with fats holding small gains while feeders were pressured lower and finishing near their daily lows. Light cash feedlot trade again to start the week in the Western Cornbelt at $127 to $128.50 live and $204 to $205 on a dressed basis, steady to $1 higher than last week’s trade. Fed Cattle Exchange online auction later this morning with only 300 head consigned.
Oklahoma National Stockyards – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/4/2019
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
2,163 7,556 7,029
Compared to last week: All classes of feeder cattle and calves were too lightly tested for an accurate market test but a steady undertone was noted. Demand moderate. Unseasonably cold temperatures over the weekend hampered livestock movement.
Winter Livestock Inc – La Junta, CO
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 03/05/2019
Receipts: 1935 Last Week: 1453 Year Ago: 3244
Compared with last Tuesday: Feeder steers under 700 lbs steady to 2.00 higher. Feeder heifers under 700 lbs steady to 1.00 higher except for 400 to 500 lbs 5.00 higher. Yearling feeder steers over 700 lbs steady. Yearling feeder heifers steady to 2.00 higher advance on 700 to 800 lbs. Slaughter cows 2.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 120,000 head, up 2,000 from a week ago and up 4,000 compared to a year ago. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 478,000 head, up 5,000 from a week ago and up 24,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values firm on fairly good demand and moderate offerings for a total of 115 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__224.04 +.49
Select Cutout__217.79 +.58
CME Feeder Index__139.63 +.04
CME Lean Hog Index__51.94 +.01
Pork Carcass Cutout__62.59 -.34
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__44.95 +.03
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__44.55 -.36
April live cattle still holding but now testing the higher trendline. The first line of support is at $128 with the next down at $126.70 and resistance near $130.50 with the contract high just below that level and just above is the recent high from the continuous weekly chart from a year ago. March feeders still on lower trend since late December, rangebound though since early November from $140.35 to $147.57. April lean hogs trying to break the lower trend in place since December with resistance next up near $60 and support down near $53.
******************************************************************************************************************
Over in the grains, corn and soybeans had a quiet mixed day of trading while wheat bounced higher. Wheat has been under heavy pressure recently trying to find a price for which will make it competitive in the world market. U.S. wheat was the lowest offer for the Iraq tender this week with a couple others in for wheat this week. Hopefully we were able to garner some of this business, still yet to be confirmed though. U.S. winter weather also still supportive to price with the Southern Plains wondering how long until we have a chance to come out of dormancy and for the Northern Plains questioning how in the world will get increased acreage of spring wheat planted.
Overnight grains were fairly quiet trading mixed with corn showing a penny range while soybeans and wheat trading a nickel range. Corn finished steady to ½ lower, soybeans 1 lower and wheat 3 to 4 lower.
Crop report this Friday at 11 AM with USDA updating U.S. and world supply and demand. There isn’t much expected to change based off the average trade estimates for U.S. ending stocks. I would think we could see decreased exports for both corn and wheat, increased feed demand though for corn and increased exports for soybeans with the recent purchases by China to refill state reserves. The world numbers could have more impact to the markets with reduced South American soybean and Australian wheat production estimates expected.
Temperatures remain below normal, heavy snow expected in the North this weekend with heavy rain and possible severe weather for the Midwest and Southeast. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook showing below normal temps for the western half of the U.S. and above normal east with precipitation above normal for all except the PNW.
May corn broke lower out of the 5 month long rangebound trade last week with the low from last fall down at $3.63 ¼, resistance up near $3.87. May soybeans dipped below the higher trend line just briefly last week, holding support at $9.00 with resistance up at $9.34. May KC wheat with a new contact low last week at $4.32 ½, resistance up at $4.70. May Chicago wheat also with a new contract low last week at $4.47 ¼ and resistance up near $4.95. May soybean meal also a new contract low at $302.80, holding a lower trend since early January which is being tested this week from $311 to $313.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700