Date: January 30th, 2019
Fairly tight daily ranges yesterday for livestock futures with a mixed finish. The recent snowstorms and extreme cold temps along with firm beef prices continue to be supportive. There just wasn’t a lot of buyer interest to sustain a decent rally yesterday for live cattle. Feeders continue to trend lower and lean hogs continue to collapse sharply lower into yet again new recent lows yesterday.
Oklahoma National Stockyards – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/28/2019
Receipts Last Reported Year Ago
10,629 4,489 7,501
Compared to last week: Feeder steers sold 2.00-6.00 higher. Feeder heifers 2.00-4.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves sold mostly 5.00-6.00 higher. Demand good to very good. Quality average to attractive with an abundance of uniform, well-conditioned cattle for grazing pasture on offer. Cattle showing very little mud today after the ground hardened up.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 01/28/2019
Receipts: 2352 Last Week: 1081 Year Ago: 2846
Compared to last week: Steers and Heifers 7.00-9.00 higher. Demand good. Quality very good to attractive. 31 percent of the receipt totals are feeder cattle over 600 lbs. while 42 percent of the total receipts are heifers. Slaughter cows 3.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 4.00-6.00 higher.
Joplin Regional Stockyards – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/28/2019
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
7,334 2,920 9,324
Compared to a light test last week, steers under 700 lbs steady, steers over 700 lbs and heifers (all weights) steady to 3.00 higher. Demand moderate to good, supply moderate to heavy.
Winter Livestock Inc – La Junta, CO
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 01/29/2019
Receipts: 2547 Last Week: 3062 Year Ago: 3410
Compared with last Tuesday: Feeder steers under 700 lbs 3.00 to 5.00 instances 8.00 higher with the exception of 350 to 400 lbs and 500 to 550 lbs mostly steady. Feeder Heifers under 600 lbs 3.00 to 5.00 higher, 600 to 700 lbs steady to 1.00 higher. Yearling feeder steers over 700 lbs 1.00 to 2.00 lower. Yearling feeder heifers over 700 lbs 2.00 higher. Slaughter cows 3.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 3.00 to 5.00 higher.
OKC West Livestock Market – El Reno, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/29/2019
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
3,000 4,928 12,022
*** Final report including feeder cattle will be released 01-30-19 ***
Compared to last Tuesday: Steer calves sold 1.00-3.00 higher on limited comparable sales from last week’s light offering. Heifer calves traded 6.00-9.00 higher. Demand good to very good, especially for lighter weight calves.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 119,000 head, up 1,000 compared to last week and up 3,000 compared to a year ago. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 473,000 head, down 2,000 from a week ago but up 5,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values firm to higher on moderate to fairly good demand and moderate offerings for a total of 114 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__218.13 +.73
Select Cutout__212.57 +.96
CME Feeder Index__143.09 -.40
CME Lean Hog Index__57.89 -.33
Pork Carcass Cutout__68.67 +.17
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__51.37 +.45
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__51.44 +.09
Fed Cattle Exchange online auction to be held later this morning with 1,684 head consigned. This compares to last week’s 4,139 head of which only 63 head sold at $123 live out of TX, 1 lot from KS passed out at $123 and the balance all from NE unsold.
February live cattle holding the higher trend in place since mid-November. The contract high set last week is up at $127.95 with the next area of resistance up near $130 from the weekly charts and going back to last February, support near $125. January feeders expire tomorrow. March has been choppy from $140 to $147.50 over these past couple months, still carrying a long term lower trend since setting the contract high at $155.50 back on October 2nd. February lean hogs continue sharply lower, into a new 5-month low with support next around $52 and resistance up at $62. There is a gap still waiting to be filled from $57.07 to $56.57 back from mid-August.
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Over in the grains, the mood was similar with a lack of buying interest and small losses for all the grains. With the government now back up and running USDA has laid out its plans for updated reporting. Weekly export sales will take some time to get caught back up with the next couple weeks only giving us late December information and February 22nd listed now as the day they will update from January forward. January crop reports will be lumped in with the February crop release slated for February 8th. CFTC also stated they will resume their weekly Commitment of Traders Report starting on February 1st. Good news and bad news for wheat yesterday with Egypt not buying any Russian wheat this round due to high prices yet also not buying any U.S. Romania and France sold 3 cargoes, 6.6 MBU, each at values some $3 to $10/MT, $.08 to $.27/BU, cheaper than U.S. offers. This along with South American weather a touch better and extended forecasts improving provided the pressure on the grains yesterday.
Overnight grains were firm with corn 1 to 2 higher, soybeans 2 to 3 higher and wheat 2 to 5 higher.
China continues to buy Brazilian soybeans with 10-12 cargoes booked last week for February through March delivery. Spring Festival is this week so no new buying is expected until next week. Trade negotiations underway in D.C. with the start of trade talks with China taking place the next couple of days.
Indonesia’s state food buyer purchased 150,000 MT or 5.9 MBU of corn from South American origins. After a second confirmed case yesterday, the South Korean Ag Ministry increased their foot and mouth disease alert to help curb the spread of the virus.
Temps remain much below normal in the North and East with pockets of heavy precip in the forecast for the West Coast, Great Lakes and Southeast. The latest 6 to 10 day outlook showing below normal temps north and west with above normal south and east. Above normal precip in the forecast for all except parts of WA, CA and FL.
March corn rangebound since late September from $3.67 to $3.90 with nearby support at $3.76 and $3.71, resistance from $3.82 to $3.84 ½. March soybeans still holding the long term higher trend from this fall with support at $8.90 and resistance from $9.26 to $9.28. March KC wheat breaking the long term lower trend but chopping sideways from the contract low at $4.82 ¼ up to $5.24 ½. March Chicago wheat holding a sideways pattern with support at $5.01 and resistance up at $5.38 ½. March soybean meal stuck in $24 range since mid-August with nearby support at $309 and resistance at $324.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700