Date: October 31st, 2018
Cattle futures continued under pressure yesterday although cash feedlot trade jumped higher last week and beef prices continue to rally. Live cattle futures have been trading sideways here for some time and the December contract is still positioned a few dollars above the cash market. Feeders though have been on a lower trend this entire month. Over 1,400 head of fat cattle confirmed so far this week at mostly $114 live in the North. Hogs remain supported with another 3 new African swine fever cases confirmed on small farms in China.
Oklahoma National Stockyards – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/29/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
11,636 7,033 8,743
Compared to last week: Feeder steers uneven with those over 800 lbs steady to 4.00 higher; under 800 lbs 2.00-3.00 lower. Feeder heifers 2.00-3.00 higher. Demand moderate to good for feeder cattle. Best demand for those over 800 lbs. Steer calves 1.00-4.00 higher and heifer calves steady to 2.00 higher. Demand moderate to good for calves. Buyers very selective for number of days weaned and 60-75 days didn’t seem to be enough.
Winter Livestock Inc – La Junta, CO
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 10/30/2018
Receipts: 2381 Last Week: 1642 Year Ago: 1400
Total receipts for Mon and Tues sale: 11,150
Compared with last Tuesday: Steer and Heifer calves in a light test steady to 2.00 lower. Yearling feeder steers steady to 1.00 lower. Yearling feeder heifers too lightly tested last week for a comparison. Slaughter cows 1.00 to 3.00 lower. Slaughter bulls 2.00 lower.
OKC West – El Reno, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/30/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
4,500 11,271 10,597
*** Final report including feeder cattle will be released later today ***
Compared to last Tuesday: Steer calves under 500 lbs that were weaned sold steady to firm, remainder of the cattle including heifers mostly 2.00-3.00 lower.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday is estimated at 117,000 head, down 2,000 from last week and down 1,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday is estimated at 465,000 head, down 12,000 from week previous but up 2,000 from last year.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on moderate to good demand and light offerings for a total of 87 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__215.28 +1.52
Select Cutout__202.88 +1.77
CME Feeder Index:__153.66 +.10
CME Lean Hog Index.__63.93 -.23
Pork Carcass Cutout__77.67 +.15
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live__ N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__58.63 +.31
National Wtd Avg Live__ 45.64 -.14, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__58.14 +.44
October live cattle expire here later this morning making the December contract the front month and still a few dollars above the last cash trade. December support holding at $116 with a slightly higher trend in place over these past couple weeks, resistance at $118.80 then the contact high from October 1st at $119.75. November feeders hit a new recent low yesterday, now below all major moving averages and testing the $152 support with the next at $148. January looks similar, breaking the $148 support yesterday with the next down near $144.50 and resistance from $151 to $152.40. December lean hogs unable to break the $60 resistance level yesterday but while try again today for a new 4 month high.
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Grains were lower as well yesterday from fall harvest pressure and world wheat prices declining. Corn harvest is about wrapped up locally and basis has responded already with a good push forward. Gulf values were up 1 to 3 cents. Corn futures still holding a higher trend while soybeans and wheat on downtrend.
Grains traded mixed overnight, soybeans were higher most of the night as deliveries were lighter than expected, only 13 contracts. Corn finished 1 lower, soybeans steady to 1 lower and wheat 1 to 5 lower.
Again, today is first notice day for November soybeans so no limits on the front month and volume will be getting thin. Please remember to get hedges rolled or positions exited here this week.
Not much new news overnight. Bangladesh cancelled their wheat tender sighting high prices and Jordan cancelled today stating only 1 offer was received.
It should remain mostly dry here in the Plains but heavy rains expected over this next week in the Southeast and Eastern Corn Belt. The latest 6-10 day outlook showing normal to above normal moisture for all except the West Coast with temps above normal on both coasts and below normal from KS up into ND and MN.
December corn breaking the higher trend that was in place from mid-September, support still holding at $3.60 with resistance up at $3.78 ½. November soybeans trending lower over these past couple weeks. January’s low down at $8.26 ¼ with resistance up at $8.76 and $9.06. December KC wheat breaking into new recent lows last week at $4.85 ¼, resistance next at $5.15 then around $5.30. December Chicago wheat looks similar on the charts with last week’s new recent low at $4.85 ½ and resistance from $5.27 to $5.31. December soybean meal still trending lower with support from $303 to $300 and resistance up at $311 and $327.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700