Date: October 3rd, 2018
Most livestock futures and all grains higher for the 2nd day in a row. Cattle futures traded mixed throughout the day but pulled higher and closed near the day’s highs. We have seen a few cash fats trade from $109 to $112 live so far this week, yesterday was mostly $111 to $112 which is $1 higher than last week. Fed Cattle Exchange online auction to be held later today with only 358 head consigned.
Oklahoma National Stockyards – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/1/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
9,614 5,963 4,866
Compared to last week: Feeder steers trading 2.00-6.00 higher. Feeder heifers mostly steady with limited comparable receipts from last week. 500-600 lb. steer calves 1.00-5.00 higher, heifer calves 2.00-4.00 higher.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK.
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 10/01/2018
Receipts: 3911 Last Week: 3436 Year Ago: 3440
Compared to last week: Steers 3.00-5.00 higher. Heifers 5.00-7.00 higher. Demand good. Quality plain thru attractive.
Joplin Regional Stockyards – Carthage, MO
Livestock Auction Report for 10/1/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
4,544 5,007 3,654
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves sold 3.00 to 5.00 higher with several weights and classes of cattle fully 7.00 to 9.00 higher. Definitely some renewed optimism around the sale ring after last week’s slight downturn, helped by Friday’s steady negotiated cattle trade and Monday’s modestly higher futures trade. Supply moderate and demand good.
Winter Livestock Inc – La Junta, CO
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 10/02/2018
Receipts: 2822 Last Week: 2863 Year Ago: 1812
Compared with last Tuesday: Steer and Heifer calves under 400 lbs 8.00 to 10.00 higher. Steers 400 to 700 lbs steady to 2.00 higher except for 500 to 550 lbs 2.00 to 3.00 lower. Heifers 400 to 700 lbs steady to 2.00 lower decline on 500 to 550 lbs. Yearling feeder steers and Heifers over 700 lbs too lightly tested last week for a comparison.
OKC West – El Reno, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/2/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
5,000 7,027 7,819
*** Final report will be released 10-3-18 ***
Compared to last Tuesday: Steer and heifer calves sold 2.00-4.00 lower with exception of large groups of long weaned thinner fleshed calves trading mostly steady.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday is estimated at 119,000 head, down 1,000 from last week but matching a year ago. Hog slaughter from Tuesday is estimated at 474,000 head, up 2,000 from last week and up 13,000 from last year.
Boxed beef cutout values steady to weak on light to moderate demand and light offerings for a total of 117 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__204.89 -.19
Select Cutout__193.98 -.65
CME Feeder Index:__157.82 +.34
CME Lean Hog Index.__67.93 +.67
Pork Carcass Cutout__80.48 -.57
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live__ 46.75 -1.09, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__63.38 +.87
National Wtd Avg Live__ 48.95 +.58, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__63.24 +.53
October live cattle still trending higher with a new 6-month high on Monday at $114.35 and support at $111.90. October feeders hit a new contract high back on September 14th at $159.90 which is yet to be taken out, support at $156. January hit new contract highs the past 2 days in a row with support at $154.80 then at $152. October lean hogs are up over $17 in just over a month and into a new 5-month high yesterday at $66.75. The next resistance is up near $69 and support near $60.
******************************************************************************************************************
Grains continued higher yesterday led by the wheat markets actually as the Russian wheat quality issues continue to build. The Russian Agriculture Safety Agency is looking into quality cert violations at 30 facilities in 2 major port regions and stated operations could be suspended for up to 90 days. Australia has had its driest September in history and to date the 2nd driest year since 1900 which also continues to support U.S. wheat. The other supporting factor is the weather and forecast throughout the Midwest delaying fall harvest here in the U.S.
Grains were steady to higher overnight but finished mixed. Corn finished 1 lower, soybeans 3 higher and wheat 2 lower to 2 higher.
USDA announced a private sale of 230,000 MT or 9.05 MBU of corn sold to Japan. Japan also purchased 41,400 MT of feed barley in their weekly tender.
Heavy rains and harvest delays continue this week and into next with the band of the heaviest rain forecasted still from the Southern Plains through the Western Corn Belt and into the Great Lakes. The latest 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal moisture for most of the country with below normal in the Southeast and East Coast and still below normal temps west and above normal east.
December corn testing the nearby resistance yesterday and overnight. A close above $3.70 would be a big hit for the bulls and lead to a push for the next up at $3.88. November soybeans continue to trend higher breaking through the first line of resistance with the next up around $9.00. December KC wheat with the recent low last month at $4.98 ¾ and resistance up at $5.35 then at $5.50. December Chicago wheat looks similar on the charts with support at $4.95 and resistance up at $5.32 & $5.40. December soybean meal rangebound this past month and a half from $301.60 to $320.50, the long term lower trend broke this week with a higher trend now in place since September 18th.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700