Date: July 11th, 2018
Live cattle futures still trending lower with cash trade premium. Lean hogs were sharply lower yesterday with the August contract down the $3 limit. Feeders though are holding a higher trend with early week salebarn reports coming in at steady to a few dollars higher than last week.
Oklahoma National Stockyards – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Auction Report for 7/2/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
8,001 2,026 5,329
Compared to last week’s limited offerings: Feeder steers and heifers mostly 1.00-4.00 higher. 500-600 lb steer and heifer calves 1.00-3.00 higher, no test on lighter calves. Compared to two weeks ago: Feeder steers and heifers 5.00-10.00 higher. 500-600 lb steer and heifer calves 7.00-12.00 higher with no test on lightweight calves.
Tulsa Stockyards – Tulsa, OK
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 07/09/2018
Receipts: 2213 Last Week: 1597 Year Ago: 2202
Compared to last week: Steers and heifers 3.00-5.00 higher. Quality
good. Demand good.
Joplin Regional Stockyards – Carthage, MO
Livestock Auction Report for 7/9/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
6,481 6,123 5,088
Compared to last week, steers and heifers steady to 3.00 lower, following last week’s sharply higher trade. Demand and supply moderate. Most of the trade area in need of moisture as pastures are short and stock water is a concern for some producers.
OKC West – El Reno, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/10/2018
Receipts Last Reported Year Ago
2,500 10,528 8,866
*** Final report including feeder cattle will be released later today ***
Compared to the last sale two week’s ago: Steer and heifer calves sold 4.00-6.00 higher where comparable sales were noted. Demand moderate to good. Quality mostly plain to average, few attractive.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday is estimated at 120,000 head, up 2,000 from last week and up 1,000 compared to a year ago. Hog slaughter from Tuesday is estimated at 457,000 head, down 6,000 from last week but up 17,000 from last year.
Boxed beef cutout values steady to firm on moderate to fairly good demand and moderate offerings for a total of 144 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__207.32 +.40
Select Cutout__198.39 -.23
CME Feeder Index:__146.75 +.27
CME Lean Hog Index.__81.67 -.25
Pork Carcass Cutout__84.10 -1.29
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live__ N/A, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__76.50 -.34
National Wtd Avg Live__ 58.20 -.75, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__76.36 -.08
August live cattle topped at $108.45 last week with support tested yesterday at $105 and the next resistance level around $110. August feeders still holding the higher trend with last week’s high testing the $154 resistance level, the next up at $156 and good support from $146 to $145. July lean hogs choppy this past month from $78 to $84 which on the chart looks like either a double top or a reverse head and shoulders.
******************************************************************************************************************Grains were mixed yesterday, wheat getting picked on again, now the 10th consecutive week starting with lower prices. The U.S. Spring Wheat crop still looks amazing in the North which is keeping the lid on a winter wheat rally at this time. Still have production concerns in Europe and Russia that are supportive. Brazil’s Ag agency, CONAB, trimmed their second crop corn estimate by another 2.2 MMT now at 56 MMT taking the combined crop down to 82.9 MMT vs. 97.8 MMT last year.
The CME announced yesterday that they are taking both corn and soybean delivery storage rates from $.05/bu to $.08/bu. The change is effective starting with the Nov/Dec contracts of 2019 which should widen carries for the 2019 new crop.
The White House Tuesday evening announced another round of 10% tariffs on an additional $200 billion in Chinese goods, adding it hopes to avoid hitting consumer goods with those tariffs. The White House also said it hopes it can achieve more talks with China about trade.
Overnight, grains were under pressure with corn hitting new lows and soybeans testing the contract lows. Corn finished 2 to 3 lower, soybeans 11 lower and wheat 4 to 7 lower.
USDA Crop Reports Thursday at 11AM CST, Average Pre Report Estimates…
US 2018 Corn production at 14.27 BBU vs. 14.04 in June with yield up .9 BPA to 174.9. 17/18 U.S ending stocks at 2.107 vs. 2.102 BBU and 18/19 at 1.71 vs. 1.577 BBU in June.
2017/18 world corn stocks at 191.4 MMT vs. 192.7 MMT in June. 2018/19 world corn ending stocks at 156.3 MMT vs. 154.7 MMT in June.
2017/18 Argentina corn crop at 32.7 MMT compared to June’s 33.0 MMT and Brazil corn crop at 83.1 MMT vs. 85.0 MMT in June.
US 2018 Soybean production at 4.31 BBU vs. 4.28 in June with yield up .1 BPA to 48.6. 17/18 U.S ending stocks at 507 MBU vs. 505 MBU and 18/19 at 470 vs. 385 MBU in June.
2017/18 world soybean stocks at 91.8 MMT vs. 92.5 MMT in June. 2018/19 world corn ending stocks at 88.2 MMT vs. 87.0 MMT in June.
2017/18 Argentina soybean crop at 36.7 MMT compared to June’s 37.0 MMT and Brazil soybean crop at 118.9 MMT vs. 119.0 MMT in June.
US 2018/19 All Wheat production at 1.86 BBU vs. 1.827 BBU in June with winter wheat at 1.195 vs. 1.198. 2018/19 U.S. ending stocks at 972 MBU vs. 946 MBU in June.
2017/18 world wheat stocks at 272.5 MMT vs. 272.4 MMT in June. 2018/19 world corn ending stocks at 265.1 MMT vs. 266.2 MMT in June.
Over this next week, rains are light in the Plains and Midwest with 1-3 inches expected from NE into the Great Lakes. The latest 6-10 day outlook has temps above normal for the Eastern Corn Belt while the Northern Plains are cooler than normal. Precipitation is above normal for the Southwest and into most of the Corn Belt.
September corn with a new contract low at $3.43 overnight and resistance at $3.68. December corn down to $3.55 ¾ overnight with resistance up at $3.80. August soybeans with support at $8.37, resistance up at $8.80 and then just above $9. November soybeans still on a lower trend with the contract low at $8.53 ¼, resistance at $9 and then $9.20. September KC wheat with support at $4.70 and resistance at $5.16. September Chicago wheat with support at $4.80 and resistance at $5.16.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener / Alex Gasper
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700