Author: ploewen

Date: October 3rd, 2018 Most livestock futures and all grains higher for the 2nd day in a row. Cattle futures traded mixed throughout the day but pulled higher and closed near the day’s highs. We have seen a few cash fats trade from $109 to $112 live so far this week, yesterday was mostly $111 to $112 which is $1 higher than last week. Fed Cattle Exchange online auction to be held later today with only 358 head consigned. Oklahoma National Stockyards - Oklahoma City, OK Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/1/2018 Receipts Week Ago Year Ago 9,614 5,963 4,866 Compared to last week: Feeder steers trading 2.00-6.00 higher. Feeder heifers mostly steady with limited comparable receipts from last week. 500-600 lb. steer calves 1.00-5.00…

Great start to the week for the bulls since it was a buy it all day on Monday. The meat complex was all solidly up in the green with feeders and hogs enjoying some triple digit gains on some contracts. Grain and oilseed trade was higher in everything as well, which essentially erased all the fall crop market losses following Friday’s Quarterly Stocks report bearishness. For the front months in the meat complex, October live cattle pushed into new recent highs and the highest level traded since mid March. October Feeder Cattle came within 32 cents of the contract high, but just couldn’t quite push up into new high territory. The next two months out, which are the Nov and Jan contracts did make new…

Date: October 1st, 2018 Cash feedlot trade this past week was mostly steady again at $110.50 to $111 live but $1 lower at mostly $174 on a dressed basis. The Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report this week confirmed the hog industry is still expanding with a 3% increase in total hog inventory, breeding inventory and market hogs. Feeders and calves saw some pressure earlier in the week but stabilized when futures jumped higher midweek. NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 09/28/2018 RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total This Week 185,400 47,000 1,900 234,300 Last Week 175,800 114,500 40,000 330,300 Last Year 166,500 42,700 1,800 211,000 Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold uneven; 2.00 lower to 2.00 higher. Good to very good…

Date: September 26th, 2018 Cattle futures moved very little yesterday with less than $1 trading range in both fats and feeders and finishing mildly higher for the day. Lean hogs on the other hand continued to push higher with the front month October gapping higher on the open, finishing triple digits higher for the day and breaking through the $62 resistance area from this past June. The only confirmed cash feedlot trade so far this week is in the North at $173 to $175 on a dressed basis and $110.50 live which is in essence steady with last week. Fed cattle exchange online auction later today with only 424 head consigned compared to last week’s 528 head of which none sold. Oklahoma National Stockyards -…

Date: September 25th, 2018 Cattle futures continued under pressure to start this week as lean hog futures were mostly higher. The bearish cattle on feed report along with corn futures higher provided the initial pressure which could not be reversed out of. Beef prices were lower in the morning trade but bounced back to close higher on light volume. Cold Storage Report for the end of August was overall bearish. Total red meat supplies up 4% from both last month and last year. Total pounds of beef in freezers were up 4% from the previous month and up 6% from last year. Frozen pork supplies were up 6% from the previous month and up 1% from last year. Total frozen poultry supplies were up 5%…

Big week for the meat complex from the standpoint of an overdose of news flow. Hurricane Florence and the flooding aftermath crippled the pork and poultry industry along the East Coast. Poultry loss numbers are all over the board, but I think it’s safe to say the losses were somewhere between 2-4 mln chickens and turkeys. Hog losses were minimal, but slaughter and processing plants that were shut down ahead of the storm still aren’t full online yet. The hog kills two weeks ago were down sharply from normal levels. Last week’s kill looked to me like maybe 1/3 to ½ the capacity that was lost was back up. We’ll find out from today’s slaughter total if there’s anything else online yet. African Swine Fever…

Date: September 19th, 2018 Livestock futures were mixed yesterday with cattle under pressure all day while lean hogs scored triple digit gains. Hogs gapped higher at the open yesterday with the nearby contract touching the $3 limit at one point. Cash prices were higher along with pork while cleanup is ongoing in the North Carolina. China’s sow herd is reportedly down 4.8% in August compared to a year ago and down 1.1% from last month. Total hog herd is down 2.4% from a year ago. Salebarns are reporting decent volume so far this week with feeders and calves mostly higher than last week, some reports stating $8 to $9 higher. There have been a few hundred fat cattle trade this week in NE at $111.50…

After a stellar, bullish close to last week’s cattle complex futures trade, it was a surprisingly dull session yesterday. The daily range from high to low was still more than $1 in most contract months in the live and feeder markets, but the closes were mixed and very quiet on the net changes versus Friday’s finish. Chart technicals across the cattle look really, really bullish with a lot of new highs last week and a few months pushing lightly into new highs again yesterday at the peak. Those technical bullish signs are coming in the face of fundamentals that are pointed the opposite direction though, given total meat supplies across the board. If funds and managed money want to keep hitting the buy button and…

Date: September 17th, 2018 Only light volume to report heading into Friday afternoon for cash feedlot trade. Futures surged higher though, October finishing limit higher for the day, which should result in higher cash trade. NE saw active trade at $108 to $110 live and $172 to $175 dressed which is already steady to $2 higher than the week previous. Trade was confirmed late Friday in the South as high as $112 live. NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – W/E 09/14/2018 RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total This Week 184,400 60,400 44,800 289,600 Last Week 122,200 47,800 57,200 227,200 Last Year 193,100 58,100 20,800 272,000 Compared to last week, calves and yearlings sold fully steady to 5.00 higher with many major markets compared to two…

Grain and oilseed trade got some shocker numbers in the reports and market action was sharply lower in corn, actively lower in wheat and higher in beans. The biggest report focus was corn and soybean yield and production totals. Corn yield was a whopping, record bearish 181.3 bu/ac, yet ending stocks were still bullish at 1.774 bln. Soybean yield was a monster as well at 52.8 bu/ac with carryout badly bearish at 845 mln. New crop world ending stocks totals were all slightly larger than the pre-report estimates. Old crop world numbers were higher than the guesses in corn and wheat and a little lower in beans. Big picture round numbers have world wheat ending stocks down 13 mmt’s from a year ago, world soybean…