Author: ploewen

Date: December 20, 2023 Very little follow through buying on Tuesday after new recent highs on Monday across the livestock futures. Cattle traders are a bit nervous heading into the holiday trading season especially with the December Cattle on Feed report coming this Friday after the close and then a 3-day weekend. Most are calling for a higher on feed, 1-2% higher vs. a year ago but lower placements, 2-5% lower than last year. Only very light volume cash fed cattle trade reported so far this week in the North at $169 live which is at the top end of last week’s range. The Quarterly Hog and Pigs report is also coming this Friday afternoon with the average trade estimate for all hogs as of…

Date: December 13, 2023 Cattle futures continued higher on Tuesday as lean hogs finished mixed. This is the third consecutive higher close for both fats and feeders, yet I would still be reluctant to call the bottom in just yet. Charts are looking a little better and bottoms are typically rounded unlike highs which typically are spikes. Both fats and feeders still need to add another $4 to $5 and break nearby resistance levels to get me excited on a new rally beginning. Deferred contracts led the way higher yesterday. Fundamentals sure didn’t call for this 4-month sharp price drop and overall it’s too early to see much inventory building just yet. Only very light volume cash fed cattle reported so far this week in…

Date: December 11, 2023 Livestock futures opened Friday morning steady to $1 higher. Fats and feeders tested support levels but directly after the December USDA S&D reports, grains flashed lower and buying interest began for both cattle and lean hog futures. The buying momentum held into the close with fats finishing $2 to $3+ higher, feeders $4 to $5 higher and lean hogs $.80 to $1.50 higher. This was the first higher week over week close for the nearby feeder contract in over a month and only the third higher weekly close since mid-September. Now the charts/technicals are not fixed yet, but hopefully this late week rally can spill into buying enthusiasm early this week. The report did not have many major changes for the…

Date: December 8, 2023 In the cattle complex, we started the day higher in a lot of contract months, rallied decently and then the sell pressure hit, taking some of the deferred feeders down more than $2 and a few live cattle contracts down over $1. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade this week in the Southern Plains has been parked at $171 live, which is $8 to $9 above futures, meaning crazy positive basis. That’s a very good thing for hedgers, but the collapsing futures markets overall still a very bade thing for everyone else. Dressed trade in the North this week from $267 to $271, $3 to $5 lower than last week. Winter Livestock - Dodge City, KS Livestock Weighted Average Report for 12/6/2023…

Date: November 29, 2023 Gotta love when turnaround Tuesday works higher, at least for all livestock and grains except just a few months for corn. These markets are certainly not for faint of heart lately with the nearby January feeder cattle up the daily limit of $8.25 on Tuesday after losing over $14 the past two trading sessions. Daily trading limits for feeders today out the $12.25 which also pushes live cattle daily limits out to $10! Live cattle followed the feeders higher yesterday with gains of $2.87 to $4.20, but no limit higher moves. Even lean hogs held onto triple digit gains for the front 3 months. Only light volume cash fed cattle trade so far this week at $175 live, $2 lower than…

Date: November 28 The cattle complex took another big punch to the gut yesterday as Friday’s losses spilled over into Monday. Live cattle were actually mixed on either side of unchanged shortly after yesterday’s opening bell, but just couldn’t make anything happen at higher money. Feeders started with shallow losses that just continued to steepen to the tune of $6+ lower. No big news story to point the finger at other than some harsh technical selling and quite frankly some panicking going on. Chart technicals look just absolutely terrible in both fats and feeders but definitely worse in feeders with some new contract lows being made. The January contract has made new recent lows, and ugly ones at that, but they have not quite gotten…

Date: November 27, 2023 Massive fund liquidation and technical selling continued for livestock futures on the holiday shortened Friday trading session. Negotiated cash fed trade last week mostly at $177 live and $280 dressed, steady to $2 lower than the week previous, with the full ranges from $175 to $178 live and $278 to $288 dressed. New 8-month lows for most cattle contracts on Friday with new contract lows for feeders from April forward. Lean hogs sold off as well with February forward triple digits lower and new contract lows for a few contracts there as well. I was a bit surprised to see such a sell off with the winter weather that headed into the Southern Plains over the weekend. Weekly closes for livestock…

Date: November 20, 2023 No fireworks across the cattle complex on Friday as neither live cattle nor feeders had any huge swings either direction, unlike the $3+ moves that we’ve seen throughout the past week. Both fats and feeders tested the waters lower shortly after the open last Friday but managed to climb themselves out of the red and finish mixed for fats with $1+ gains for feeders. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade last week was steady to $3 lower with most live trade at $178 and dressed trade at $282. Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…December Live Cattle +$1.57, February +$2.15, January Feeder Cattle +$2.07, March +$2.35, December Lean Hogs -$.92, February -$.12, Choice Boxed Beef -$6.59 at $293.87 and Pork Carcass Cutout…

Date: November 15, 2023 Moderate to strong follow through buying developed early in cattle futures on Tuesday. By late morning though, some of that enthusiasm had waned as gains were cut in half, yet we still held in positive territory for all but the nearby November feeder contract. Some of that upward momentum was halted as private average trade estimates were released for this Friday’s Cattle on Feed report. Most are looking for another bearish report with November 1st on feed numbers at 102% vs. last year and October placements at 107%. October marketings are expected to be better than month ago but still only 98% vs. a year ago. Cash fed cattle trade yet to develop with only very light volume so far in…

Date: November 13, 2023 Livestock futures were mixed on Friday but severe damage down to both the live cattle and feeder cattle charts last week. New six to seven-month lows were hit throughout the cattle futures last week as funds continue a massive, long liquidation. Choice beef still hovering right around the $300 level, although we did dip below briefly for the first time in over a month. Cash fed cattle trade developed quicker than the previous weeks with futures sharply lower, volume still fairly light. Live trade throughout the country from $178 to $181 live with dressed trade in the North from $283 to $287, all ranging from $4 to $8 lower than the week previous. Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…December Live…