Author: ploewen

Date: November 13th, 2019 Feeder cattle into new highs, fats testing last week’s new recent highs and lean hogs triple digits higher yesterday. Pork prices continue to rally but cash hogs have slipped lower this past week. Cattle futures were able to reach higher during the trading sessions but settle mixed as again finding direction early in the week is a challenge. Beef prices continue to soar higher as cash plays catch up now for these past couple months. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later today with 1,393 head consigned compared to last week’s 1,684 head of which 119 sold at $115 in KS. Packers purchased 25,000 more head than a week ago for the 1-15 day delivery at nearly 100,000…

Meat complex futures started the week in great shape. Live and feeder cattle finished on the plus side in all contract months, with quite a few of the feeder contracts up in the triple digits. Hogs were down on the front two months, but higher on everything else and everything closed just in the double digits on the net changes. Negotiated cash feedlot trade was a big success last week, jumping $3 in the Southern Plains up to a $115 top. That actually matched last year’s feedlot trade from the same week, although it was still $9 lower than the same week back in 2017. That’s the first time cash has traded steady with the comparative week from 2018 since the first full week of…

Date: November 6th, 2019 Cattle futures trading their typical early in the week, non-directional trading pattern while lean hogs held to a triple digit rally. This still doesn’t break the long term lower trend for hogs but is a new 2-week high. Pork prices have started to rebound providing some initial support but the real test will be sustaining the rally for the balance of the week. Cash feedlot trade still mostly quiet so far this week, some light volume in the North at values equal to last week’s trade, $115 live and $177 to $182 dressed. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later today with 547 head consigned compared to last week’s 433 head of which 184 sold at $112 in…

Date: November 4th, 2019 Cash feedlot trade higher again last week with KS and TX trade starting midweek at $110 to $112 live. By the end of the week live trade peaked in the North at $116 and dressed trade up to $180 to $182. Live cattle futures have been leading the way now within just a few dollars of this past spring’s highs. Feeders though are still some $10+ from those highs. Compared to last year, cattle prices are still discount but beef prices remain at a premium to a year ago levels keeping packer margins in the green. The concern moving forward is still cheaper alternatives to beef such as pork which has held consistently about 1/3 the price for the majority of…

There was very little reaction in yesterday’s trade to the COF numbers from Friday. Then again, there probably wasn’t much reaction needed either. Those On Feed numbers were mildly bearish versus the pre-report expectations, but big picture it was still friendly. On a daily basis, we marketed about 5.5% more cattle last month than last year, the total inventory at the bunkline is 1% less, but placements last month were up 2%. That higher placement total, albeit just 42,000 head larger than last year was the first increase compared to last year in feedlot placement activity since April. That factor coupled with a pretty good pace on marketings took the On Feed supply below 2018 levels in September finally and kept it below in this…

Date: October 28th, 2019 Cattle futures finished the week higher as higher cash feedlot trade started mid-week. Trade in KS and TX was reported at $110 to $111 live, $1 to $2 higher than the week previous. In the North, trade was reported at $110 to $112 live which was $1 higher and mostly $175 on a dressed basis which was steady to $2 higher. Cattle on Feed as of October 1st at 11.3 million head was still friendly coming in at 99% vs. a year ago but mildly bearish vs. the pre report estimates. Placements in feedlots during September totaled 2.09 million head, 2 percent above 2018, and slightly larger than expected. Marketings of fed cattle during September totaled 1.74 million head, 1 percent…

Date: October 23rd, 2019 Livestock and grain futures were all over the place yesterday. Rumors overnight then reports out of China that they had meetings with importers and were looking to issue tariff free quota for crushers to purchase 10 MMT or 367 MBU of U.S. soybeans was very supportive early on. Grains were higher overnight, beans up double digits, and lean hogs were showing bids before the open at limit higher. When the markets opened at 8:30 though, December lean hogs opened less than $1 higher, cattle mixed to lower while grains were higher but not showing any strength. In the end, hogs finished triple digits lower, live cattle mixed, feeders held gains and grains were mixed which was all disappointing. Cash feedlot trade…

There was a lot of back and forth trade to start the week across the meat complex. At the close, feeders were mostly lower, aside from a couple of unchanged to higher months, hogs were mostly higher except for the front month December and the live market settled unchanged to higher in everything. Last week’s negotiated cash trade was a disappointment with most of the trade lower in the Southern Plains than the previous week. Northern trade was closer to steady. If it wasn’t for Friday’s aggressive selloff in futures, everyone likely would have rung the bell at higher money. Coming up on Friday this week we get monthly COF numbers to digest and the early expectations are positive. The analyst estimates for the On…

Date: October 21st, 2019 Livestock futures finished the week lower as cash feedlot trade slipped lower in the South and was steady to higher in the North. The Cargill Dodge City slaughter plant that suffered an explosion last Thursday put some pressure on the cattle market. So far it appears the plant was only down for a day but still caused some nervousness to end last week. Trade in KS and TX got going Friday at $108 live, $1 lower than the week previous. In the North, trade was reported at $109 to $110 live which was steady with the week previous and $173 to $175 dressed which was $2 to $3 higher than the week previous. NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK…