Author: ploewen

Date: April 22nd, 2020 Livestock futures remain under pressure as chainspeeds continue to reduce and/or slaughter plants shutdown due to COVID-19 hot spots within employees at the plants. Cash trade this week could be very limited again or near zero as all kill slots are taken from forward contracting obligations. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will hold its weekly sale later this morning after postponing to Friday last week. This week there are 4,671 head consigned compared to last week’s 5,778 head of which 898 head sold at $105 live for delivery 1 to 17 days out. Based off last Friday’s close that is still a positive basis of $9.50 for any hedged fats. Ahead of this Friday afternoon’s monthly USDA cattle on feed…

Meat complex futures enjoyed a strong positive day in the hogs and feeder cattle and most of the live cattle contracts. There was a big exception to the rule on the front end of the live trade though and that came from the April contract being down the $4.50 limit, which pulled the June contract down a little too. Everything past those two months was up nicely and the Dec fats even finished up $2. Besides the fact there were some folks caught up in April live cattle option expiration that may have had a tough time unwinding things because of two limit lower closes, which in turn may have added even more to the weakness, there are other explanations that make better sense in…

Date: April 6th, 2020 More pressure on the front months for cattle futures, deferred live cattle even finished higher last Friday. Meat demand as now dwindled after the mass rush to grocery stores the past few weeks. Cash feedlot trade was reported mid-week at $112 live, down $8 from the week previous with some cleanup trade by the end of the week as low as $105. Dressed trade in the North was down $15 to $175. Processing plants for both pork and beef slowing down this past week as meats fill up cold storage, plant employees are staying home and spread out to slowdown the chains. The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits surged to more than 6.6 million last week, breaking a…

Date: April 1st, 2020 Quite the crazy day for cattle markets with equites lower, boxed beef posting a record breaking one-day move lower, yet futures rallied shortly after the noon hour and closed triple digits higher to close out the month of March. So far the only Covid-19 related slowdown, not shutdown, is taking place at a JBS packing plant in PA. Canada has had at least 1 packing plant shutdown so far this week. Only very light cash feedlot trade so far this week at $122 live, $2 higher than last week on Monday followed by some $180 dressed trade in the North which is $10 lower than last week. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later this morning with another…

Date: March 30th, 2020 Cash feedlot trade in a range from $116-$122 live starting last Wednesday compared to the top end at $113 the week previous. Most of the volume traded this past week was at $119 to $120 live and $190 dressed. Livestock futures have disconnected some from the equity trade but not of course from the economic impacts from the spread of Covid-19. Grocery store demand skyrocketed the past couple weeks in which beef prices shot higher. As consumers have now filled freezer space, hamburger may still continue to move but steaks have stalled without the mass restaurant sales and many trying to keep personal finances in check. The record large 3 million claiming unemployment last week turned the livestock markets from limit…

Date: March 25th, 2020 Cattle futures were limit higher for the second day in a row, expect for the soon to expire March Feeder contract. Equities were supportive with the DOW up over 2100 points or 11%. Cash feedlot trade is light so far this week at $115 to $116 live and $185 to $188 dressed, $3 to $5 higher than last week. Later this morning the Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held with another week of decent volume at 5,886 head compared to last week’s 4,680 head of which 1,813 head sold at $111 to $113. Beef prices were steady to higher yesterday, pork lower. There continues to be good demand for beef but primarily hamburger now after the run on all…

Date: March 23rd, 2020 Livestock futures finished the week mostly higher as some separation continues from the outside market pressure. Cash feedlot trade was $105 live to start the week but by midweek, trade was reported at $113 live. That is $3 higher than the week previous and based on the April Live Cattle close Wednesday, a positive basis over $20. Beef prices continue to climb higher as well as pork prices as grocery stores try to keep shelves stocked and restaurants try to stay in business by offering curb side pickup or delivery. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report was neutral to friendly coming in as expected with 100% on feed compared to a year ago, only 92% placements and 105% marketings. NATIONAL FEEDER &…

Date: March 18th, 2020 Live Cattle futures were the leader yesterday using expanded limits to close $4.50 higher on the front three months. Feeders were impressive also, but did show some wild trading ranges as high as $7 and finished +187 to +505. Nearby Lean hogs also finished the expanded limit higher. This also wasn’t the result of limit higher equites with the Dow +600 points when livestock futures closed. Beef prices shot higher Monday and yesterday after the mass grocery store meat counter cleanout that started late last week. Cash feedlot trade already kicked off Monday on moderate volume at $105 live up to $110 but has ceased since. Later this morning the Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held with 10 times…

Date: March 16th, 2020 Friday closed out a wild week for the markets and the first major separation of the stock market from the cattle market in over a month. Now part of, in fact over half of Friday’s gain for the equites came after the commodity markets closed as President Trump announced a major private/public sector partnership in combatting the spread of COVID-19 and declaring the first public health national emergency since the H1N1 emergency in 2009. After the 10% collapse on Thursday, the stock market rallied back 9.3%. Cattle futures opened sharply higher but failed to hold gains mid-morning and used the expanded limits to set new lows. Nearby through December live cattle contracts closed the expanded limit $4.50 lower while only August…

Date: March 13th, 2020 The World Health Organization officially classifying the COVID-19 coronavirus a world pandemic adding more fuel to the market fire sale. Of the over 118,000 cases reported globally in 114 countries, 4,291 people have died, more than 90 percent of cases are in just four countries, and two of those – China and South Korea have significantly declining epidemics. This coronavirus has spread rapidly but compare these stats with 2019-2020 flu season. According to the CDC, so far this season there have been at least 34 million flu illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths from flu just here in the U.S. President Trump declared a travel ban for 30 days from Europe, all sporting events, conferences cancelled, universities going to online classes…