Date: August 14, 2024
Livestock futures were mixed on Tuesday with cattle futures higher, led by $2+ gains for feeders, while lean hogs traded lower. Cattle are testing nearby resistance now, but unable to break through yesterday. Higher futures have certainly led to higher cash. Early week salebarn reports posting higher prices than a week ago and cash fed cattle trade has yet to develop but asking prices in the South were firm at $187 to $188 live.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/12/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 5,428 Last Week: 3,864 Last Year: 8,114
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 2.00-6.00 higher. Steer calves 10.00 higher in a light test. Feeder heifers steady to 4.00 higher. Heifer calves 7.00-10.00 higher. Demand good. Quality plain to average. 7 weight index steers averaged $252 to $257 and 8 weights averaged $236 to $245.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/12/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 2,407 Last Week: 1,846 Last Year: 1,691
Compared to last week: Limited number of lightweight steers, 800 lb steers 7.00-10.00 lower. Heifers 700 lbs steady to 2.00 lower, 800 -900 lbs 12.00-14.00 lower. 8 weight index steers averaged $236 to $247.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/12/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 5,100 Last Week: 2,080 Last Year: 5,838
Compared to last week feeder steers sold steady to 5.00 higher with the exception of light 4 weight and 3 weight calves selling up to 30.00 higher. Feeder heifers under 525 lbs. sold 10.00-15.00 higher with heavier weights selling steady to 5.00 higher. Supply was moderate with very good demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $252 to $267 and 8 weights averaged $236 to $241.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/13/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 3,037 Last Week: 599 Last Year: 2,199
Compared to last week’s very light run, feeder steers and heifers were 2.00-4.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves under 700 lbs. sold 4.00-8.00 higher with spots 12.00 higher. Demand was good on a moderate supply. Receipts were more normal this week due to cooler temperatures and improvement in the cattle future markets. The quality was average with several load lots in the offering.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 122,000 head, matching last week but down 3,955 from last year. Hog slaughter estimated at 482,000 head, also watching a week ago and matching a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on good demand with 138 loads sold.
Choice +1.10 @ 316.93, Select +.44 @ 300.61
CME Feeder Cattle Index 245.09
CME Lean Hog Index 90.34
Pork Carcass Cutout +.06 @ 100.33
August live cattle up to a new 10-month high on July 26th at $189.32 with the contract high at $192.45. Nearby support taken out last week with a spike low last Monday down to $179.80 and back up to test nearby resistance at the 20-day moving average this week now at 184.70. August feeders were holding a 3-month long higher trend, but lost $20 from July 26th to last week’s low at $240.77. That is now the support line with the next the contract low clear down at $229.50 and resistance at $253 then $256. August lean hogs expire today. October hit a new low for the month on Tuesday at $71.32, the contract low from July 10th at $68.05 and resistance at $75.50 then the July high at $78.70.
Grains led lower by the entire soy complex lower, beans down over $.20/BU, meal down over $5/T and oil down over $.01/lb. Two consecutive days of sharp losses were too much for corn which held onto small gains on Monday from the friendly supply and demand update. Wheat futures were steady to lower as well even with neutral to friendly updates also. Mostly favorable weather in the nearby forecast across major growing areas in the U.S. also continues to provide pressure. Trends usually lean towards big crops getting bigger while small crops get smaller and this year’s soybean crop is already projected at a new record along with corn yields.
Brazil’s CONAB updated production estimates with only minor changes. Their corn production estimate is now at 115.6 MMT vs. USDA at 122 MMT and soybean production estimate at 147.4 MMT vs. USDA at 153 MMT. Hot and dry conditions continue across Europe with fall crop production estimates continuing to move lower. USDA on Monday cut Russia, Ukraine and EU corn production estimates by a total of 4.9 MMT. Private estimates for Ukraine now talking about potentially only a 20 MMT crop with USDA still up at 27.2 MMT.
Grains were mixed and traded both sides of unchanged overnight. Beans went down to touch a new low again but finished the overnight 5 higher while corn and all 3 wheat markets finished steady to 3 lower. Egypt’s massive wheat tender earlier this week still has many questioning what’s really going on. The Middle East tensions are still very high and Egypt could be just looking to make sure their needs are booked until next spring. They only purchased 5 cargoes for total of 10.3 MBU compared to original tender looking for 140 MBU. Rumors are swirling and it would not surprise me to see Egypt and Russia working behind closed doors on a massive wheat deal. Outside markets have equities higher, US$ steady and energies steady to higher with crude oil up $.20/barrel. The weekly EIA report will be out later this morning with expectations for 2 to 3% higher ethanol production yet only a modest increase in stocks due to strong blender demand and exports.
U.S. weather this week and into early next week still very good with heat coming back into the Southern Plains but the Corn Belt remaining mild and good rain chances from the Dakota’s down into and across the entire Corn Belt. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps through the central half of the U.S. and in the South with below normal temps on the West Coast and in the Corn Belt, above normal moisture for the western half of the U.S. and in the Northeast with below normal moisture in the Southern Plains and stretching into parts of the Corn Belt.
December corn down to a new low on Monday at $3.90 ¼ with support next around $3.80 and resistance at $4.05 ½ then $4.09. November soybeans hit yet another new low overnight at $9.55 ¼ with support next at $9.45 and resistance at $10.42. September Chicago wheat down to a new contract low on July 29th at $5.14 ¼ with strong resistance around the $5.50 area. September KC wheat hit a new contract low on July 30th at $5.35 ½ with resistance at $5.67 ½. September MPLS wheat a new contract low on July 17th at $5.74 ¾ with resistance at $6.00. September soybean meal down to new contract low yesterday at $299.4. August expires today and this would the first time the front month has broken the $300 level since 2020 with support next around $280 and resistance at $323.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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