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The start of the week brought active selling to the lean hog futures that resulted in $2+ losses in quite a few contract months. Interesting setup in the hogs, because deferred futures all develop strong premiums based on the anticipation of continued strong Chinese purchases of US pork. We get good export numbers and inevitably the closer we get to expiration of these hog futures month, the more active the selloff becomes. So, demand potential builds the premium, demand shows up and the premium goes away before the contract expires. Crazy trade. Active expansion is still going on in the pork sector and the balancing act between increased exports and increased production has generally resulted in production outpacing those exports still. Daily and weekly kill…

Date: November 18th, 2019 China continues to source protein and this past week’s export sales showed China as the top buyer of U.S. pork along with amazingly the 4th top buyer of U.S. beef. Cash feedlot trade was unable to push higher this past week which stemmed from heavy pressure on futures midweek. Trade in KS and TX reported at mostly $114 to $115, steady with the week previous while trade in the North was also steady at $115 to $116 live and $180 to $182 dressed. Beef and pork prices continue to move higher, improving packer margins, and hopefully will continue to improve cash prices. NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 11/15/2019 RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total This week: 299,000 51,200…

Date: November 13th, 2019 Feeder cattle into new highs, fats testing last week’s new recent highs and lean hogs triple digits higher yesterday. Pork prices continue to rally but cash hogs have slipped lower this past week. Cattle futures were able to reach higher during the trading sessions but settle mixed as again finding direction early in the week is a challenge. Beef prices continue to soar higher as cash plays catch up now for these past couple months. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later today with 1,393 head consigned compared to last week’s 1,684 head of which 119 sold at $115 in KS. Packers purchased 25,000 more head than a week ago for the 1-15 day delivery at nearly 100,000…

Meat complex futures started the week in great shape. Live and feeder cattle finished on the plus side in all contract months, with quite a few of the feeder contracts up in the triple digits. Hogs were down on the front two months, but higher on everything else and everything closed just in the double digits on the net changes. Negotiated cash feedlot trade was a big success last week, jumping $3 in the Southern Plains up to a $115 top. That actually matched last year’s feedlot trade from the same week, although it was still $9 lower than the same week back in 2017. That’s the first time cash has traded steady with the comparative week from 2018 since the first full week of…

Date: November 6th, 2019 Cattle futures trading their typical early in the week, non-directional trading pattern while lean hogs held to a triple digit rally. This still doesn’t break the long term lower trend for hogs but is a new 2-week high. Pork prices have started to rebound providing some initial support but the real test will be sustaining the rally for the balance of the week. Cash feedlot trade still mostly quiet so far this week, some light volume in the North at values equal to last week’s trade, $115 live and $177 to $182 dressed. The Fed Cattle Exchange online auction will be held later today with 547 head consigned compared to last week’s 433 head of which 184 sold at $112 in…

Date: November 4th, 2019 Cash feedlot trade higher again last week with KS and TX trade starting midweek at $110 to $112 live. By the end of the week live trade peaked in the North at $116 and dressed trade up to $180 to $182. Live cattle futures have been leading the way now within just a few dollars of this past spring’s highs. Feeders though are still some $10+ from those highs. Compared to last year, cattle prices are still discount but beef prices remain at a premium to a year ago levels keeping packer margins in the green. The concern moving forward is still cheaper alternatives to beef such as pork which has held consistently about 1/3 the price for the majority of…

There was very little reaction in yesterday’s trade to the COF numbers from Friday. Then again, there probably wasn’t much reaction needed either. Those On Feed numbers were mildly bearish versus the pre-report expectations, but big picture it was still friendly. On a daily basis, we marketed about 5.5% more cattle last month than last year, the total inventory at the bunkline is 1% less, but placements last month were up 2%. That higher placement total, albeit just 42,000 head larger than last year was the first increase compared to last year in feedlot placement activity since April. That factor coupled with a pretty good pace on marketings took the On Feed supply below 2018 levels in September finally and kept it below in this…

Date: October 28th, 2019 Cattle futures finished the week higher as higher cash feedlot trade started mid-week. Trade in KS and TX was reported at $110 to $111 live, $1 to $2 higher than the week previous. In the North, trade was reported at $110 to $112 live which was $1 higher and mostly $175 on a dressed basis which was steady to $2 higher. Cattle on Feed as of October 1st at 11.3 million head was still friendly coming in at 99% vs. a year ago but mildly bearish vs. the pre report estimates. Placements in feedlots during September totaled 2.09 million head, 2 percent above 2018, and slightly larger than expected. Marketings of fed cattle during September totaled 1.74 million head, 1 percent…

Date: October 23rd, 2019 Livestock and grain futures were all over the place yesterday. Rumors overnight then reports out of China that they had meetings with importers and were looking to issue tariff free quota for crushers to purchase 10 MMT or 367 MBU of U.S. soybeans was very supportive early on. Grains were higher overnight, beans up double digits, and lean hogs were showing bids before the open at limit higher. When the markets opened at 8:30 though, December lean hogs opened less than $1 higher, cattle mixed to lower while grains were higher but not showing any strength. In the end, hogs finished triple digits lower, live cattle mixed, feeders held gains and grains were mixed which was all disappointing. Cash feedlot trade…