Date: October 9, 2024
Livestock futures settled in the green on Tuesday with triple digit gains for feeders and fresh new recent highs for both feeders and fats. October feeders closing on the 50% retracement level at $252.25 when using the full range from the contract high at $275.17 back in January to the contract low at $229.35 from mid-August. October lean hogs expire on Monday. Looking at the December contract currently trading well above last winter’s seasonal low suggests we may not see quite the falloff later this year, but I would still expect a little downturn this fall.
No cash feedlot trade yet this week with smaller showlists in TX but larger in KS and NE as packers entered the week with smaller inventory. A full recap of last week’s cash fed cattle trade showed feedlots selling only 59,356 head of negotiated cash fat cattle and again over 80% for nearby delivery. Full price range from $184 to $191 live and $294 to $300 dressed with the weighted averages at $186.87, $.72 higher than the week previous and $295.85, $2.58 higher.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/7/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 4,683 Last Week: 5,878 Last Year: 6,121
Compared to last week: Steers over 700 lbs steady to 2.00 higher. Steers under 700 lbs 7.00-11.00 higher with instances up to 20.00 higher on the lighter steers. Heifers over 650 lbs 5.00-8.00 higher. Heifers under 650 lbs 1.00-5.00 higher. Quality was average to attractive. Demand good. The market continues to be extremely good despite hot and dry conditions across Oklahoma. 7 weight index steers averaged $252 to $257 and 8 weights averaged $242 to $246.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/7/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 2,664 Last Week: 2,125 Last Year: 1,268
Compared to the sale last week: Limited number of light steers both weeks. Steers 850 lbs sharply higher today, 950 lbs 6.00 higher. Heifers 650-750 lbs 7.00-13.00 higher, 850 lbs mostly steady, 900 lbs 4.00-6.00 higher. Most of the sale consisted of load lots of both calves and yearlings. A lot of cattle coming off the grass today. 8 weight index steers averaged $258.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/7/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 6,391 Last Week: 6,406 Last Year: 3,503
Compared to last week feeder steers under 500 lbs. sold 10.00-30.00 higher. Feeder steers over 500 lbs. sold 2.00-8.00 higher. Feeder heifers under 550 lbs. sold 5.00-25.00 higher with heavier weights selling steady to 5.00 lower. Supply was moderate with very good demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $255 to $261 and 8 weights averaged $243 to $249.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/8/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 1,927 Last Week: 1,759 Last Year: 1,821
Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers were 4.00-8.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves under 700 lbs. were 5.00-10.00 higher except for three weights which were 15.00-25.00 higher. Demand was good on a light supply. The largest drafts of the day were 58 head of 821 lb. steers that brought 249.25/cwt. and 58 head of 796 lb. steers that brought 250.00/cwt. Discounts continue to grow on short- weaned or unweaned and non-vaccinated calves.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 124,000 head, matching last week but down 4,138 from last year. Hog slaughter estimated at 484,000 head, down 2,000 compared to a week ago and down 3,164 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on Choice but lower on Select on moderate to good demand with 118 loads sold.
Choice +.91 @ 306.84, Select -.72 @ 288.61
CME Feeder Cattle Index 248.75
CME Lean Hog Index 84.22
Pork Carcass Cutout +.47 @ 96.61
October live cattle up to another new recent high yesterday at $188.65 with support at $182 and resistance next up at $189. October feeders also a new recent high yesterday at $250.62 with support at $248 then $245.20 and resistance at $256.80 then $260. October lean hogs looking to hold right around the $84 level into expiration. December hit a new 5-month high yesterday at $77.47 with resistance at $77.72 then $79 and support at $75.30 then $72.40.
Grains were mixed with soybeans the leader lower once again as fall harvest pressure here in the U.S. and much improved weather outlook for South America remain the driving forces. Wheat held onto to small gains as hot and dry conditions continue from the Canadian Prairies down through the Southern Plains. Outside markets were not helpful as the US$ is still holding onto the strong gains made last week and crude oil scored a key reversal lower finishing over $3.50 a barrel lower. Grains could be quiet for the next couple days as USDA will update supply and demand this Friday morning.
Grains all higher overnight with corn and soybeans finishing 2 higher and wheat 5 to 7 higher. USDA reported a private sale this morning this morning of 126,000 MT or 5 MBU of corn for delivery to unknown destinations. Outside markets have equities steady, US$ higher and energies lower with crude oil down $1.40/barrel. Weekly EIA report out later today with expectations for 1-2% lower ethanol production and stocks 1% lower as demand remains strong.
USDA supply and demand report coming this Friday at 11 AM CST. The average trade estimates looking for slightly lower corn and soybean production estimates. Corn yield down 0.2 to 183.6 and production down 31 MBU vs. a month ago. Soybean yield down 0.1 to 53.1 and production down 7 MBU. Ending stocks though expected to be nearly unchanged for soybeans at 549 MBU while corn stocks expected to dip below the 2 BBU mark with the average trade estimate at 1.962 BBU. U.S. wheat ending stocks also expected to come down 9 MBU to 819 MBU. World stocks for corn and wheat expected to decrease as well while world soybeans stocks expected to be unchanged.
Warm and dry conditions continue across the country heading into the weekend with a cold front coming early next week and frost/freeze dipping into northern KS. The 6-10 day outlook still showing well above normal temps for the western half of the U.S. but now below normal temps for the eastern half and still below normal moisture across most of the country.
December corn recent high last week at $4.34 ¼ with resistance next at $4.41 and support from $4.17 to $4.15. November soybeans recent high last week at $10.69 ¾ with resistance next at $10.80. Nearby support was taken out this week though with the next down at $10.11 then $10.01. December Chicago wheat up to a new 4-month high last week at $6.17 ¼ with resistance next at $6.34 and support holding at the 20-day moving average currently at $5.86 ½. December KC wheat also a new 4-month high last week at $6.23 ½ with resistance next at $6.53 and support at $5.92. December MPLS wheat breaking through resistance and up to a new recent high overnight at $6.55 with the next at $7.04 and support at $6.32. December soybean meal spiking up for a new recent high last week at $351.6 but back to test support yesterday at $320.
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