Date: July 17, 2024
Cattle futures opened up lower to start the session off yesterday after a very quiet day of trading on Monday. Tuesday’s trade again fairly quiet with no $1+ moves in either direction once again. All cattle contracts, except for the nearby August feeders, finished with small gains. With two uneventful days in a row after testing up trending support late last week, it appears futures are content with waiting for some influence from cash feedlot trade. So far this week, only very light volume has been reported in the North at $195 to $197 live, $1 to $3 lower than the bulk of last week’s trade. We also have a Cattle on Feed report coming this Friday with the average estimate for July 1st on feed at 101% vs. a year ago, June placements only 96% vs. last year but June marketings 91%. Lean hogs though showed some excitement with triple digit gains. The nearby August contract breaking through nearby resistance and rallying now $7.60 off the new contract low hit last week. Both cash and pork prices higher yesterday as well.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/15/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 6,212 Last Week: 4,366 Last Year: 6,134
Compared to last week: Steers and heifers 4.00-8.00 lower. Demand moderate. Quality average with some fancy drafts. 7 weight index steers averaged $263 to $271 and 8 weights averaged $251 to $252.50.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/15/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 2,767 Last Week: 2,298 Last Year: 1,948
Compared to the sale two weeks ago; Steers 950 lbs 12.00-13.00 higher. Heifers 750 lbs steady, 850 lbs 2.00 lower, 900 lbs steady. Most of the auction consisted of load lots of yearlings today, including a sale of over 500 steers weighing 950+ lbs averaging $250.95.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/15/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 6,402 Last Week: 10,622 Last Year: 6,278
Compared to last week feeder steers sold 2.00-4.00 lower. Feeder heifers sold steady to 3.00 lower. Supply was moderate with good demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $256-$266 and 8 weights averaged $250-$257.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/16/2024 – Final
Total Receipts: 1,556 Last Week: 1,797 Last Year: 1,977
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves under 700 lbs. sold steady to 4.00 higher. Feeder steers and heifers were steady to weak with most weights not well tested. Demand was moderate on a light supply. Heat advisories and heat warnings across the area kept receipts light with most of the offering arriving overnight or early morning.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 121,000 head, up 1,000 from last week but down 6,242 head from last year. Hog slaughter estimated at 477,000 head, up 1,000 compared to a week ago and up 14,112 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values lower on very good demand with 150 loads sold.
Choice -2.23 @ 319.26, Select -3.23 @ 301.59
CME Feeder Cattle Index 261.88
CME Lean Hog Index 88.62
Pork Carcass Cutout +2.58 @ 100.87
August live cattle still holding a higher trend since mid-April with support around $181, an open gap from $180.35 to $179.67 and resistance at $184 then the 9-month high at $188.25. August feeders still very choppy but holding the higher trend since mid-April as well with resistance at $264.95 and support at $253.45. August lean hogs hit a new contract low last week at $83.67, again breaking through nearby resistance yesterday with the next at $92.40.
Over in grains, there was little bit of strength coming out of Monday’s overnight session for both corn and beans which thankfully carried over and held through the close on Tuesday. Wheat markets stayed in the red with all three making new contract lows. There was some chatter that China was in the market for U.S. soybeans, still yet to be confirmed though. There is also still the lingering thoughts that corn and wheat production around the Black Sea will be coming in lower than expected. Egypt purchased 770,000 MT or 28.3 MBU of wheat with the majority coming from Russia this round at $241 to $243/MT delivered or roughly $6.60/BU. U.S. HRW from the gulf to Egypt priced around $286/T delivered or $7.80/BU.
Grains all higher overnight, actually led by the wheat markets with KC wheat 10 higher, Chicago and MPLS wheat 7 to 9 higher, corn 3 to 4 higher and beans finishing the overnight 2 to 9 higher. Outside markets have equities lower, US$ lower and into 3-month lows while energies are higher with crude oil up $1.20/barrel.
The weekly EIA will be out later this morning with ethanol production expected to rise 2% week over week. Blender demand and exports were both negatively impacted by Hurricane Beryl with ethanol stocks expected to be slightly higher.
Fall like temps across the country over this next week with heavy rains expected in the Southeast and only light and scattered rain chances across the Corn Belt. The 6-10 day outlook still showing below normal temps centered on the Southern Plains with above normal temps out West and above normal moisture for the southern half of the U.S. with below normal moisture in the Northern Plains.
December corn holding the $4.03 support this week with then next at $4 and resistance at $4.16 then $4.26. November soybeans down to new low yesterday at $10.42 ¾ with resistance around the $11 level then at $11.25. September Chicago wheat down to a new contract low yesterday at $5.25 ¼ with resistance at $5.90. September KC wheat also hit a new contract low yesterday at $5.45 ¾ with resistance at $6.00. September MPLS wheat a new contract low overnight at $5.74 ¾ with resistance at $6.36. August soybean meal breaking nearby support last week down to new recent low yesterday at $332.2, the contract low at $328.6 and resistance at $350.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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