Date: July 8, 2024
Livestock futures were mixed on Friday but all held week over week gains. Weekly export sales for beef were not very impressive at 15,500 MT but pork sales were a new marketing year high at 59,100 MT. Cash fed cattle trade was only reported on light volume as of the close on Friday steady with the week previous. Live trade at $190 in the South and trade in the North mostly $198 to $200 live and $310 to $315 on a dressed basis. Northern trade was holding out for higher money, above $200 live and $317 dressed.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats… August Live Cattle +$1.00, October +$2.30, August Feeder Cattle +$2.17, September +$2.57, July Lean Hogs +$.42, August +$1.07. Choice Boxed Beef +$4.11 at $330.43 and Pork Carcass Cutout -$2.98 at $94.91.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 517,000 head, down 92,000 from the week previous and down 19,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 436.4 million pounds last week with year to date -1.6% vs. last year and year to date slaughter -4.5%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,045,000 head, down 376,000 compared to the week previous but up 91,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 438.2 million pounds with year to date +1.2% compared to a year ago and year to date slaughter +1.1%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on moderate to weak demand with 89 loads sold.
Choice +.59 @ 330.43, Select +.68 @ 305.06
CME Feeder Cattle Index 255.08
CME Lean Hog Index 89.20
Pork Carcass Cutout +1.28 @ 94.91
August live cattle breaking through nearby resistance on Friday for a new 9-month high at $188.25. Resistance next up at $191 with the contract high at $192.45 and support at $185.30 then $183.60. August feeders still very choppy but holding the higher trend since mid-April with resistance at $264.95 and support at $256. Getting above $265 would suggest a challenge of the February highs from $270 to $272. July lean hogs down to a new contract low on June 26th at $88.65, a $22+ drop since the April highs, with support next around the $84 level from the weekly chart and nearby resistance around $92.
Grains traded higher on Friday, locking in weekly gains for all. Coming off the Independence Day holiday and heading into the weekend, forecast across the Corn Belt were looking warmer and drier. This was enough of a change for shorts to take some profit and add some weather premium. World wheat values also rallied helping support the double digit gains for all three wheat markets. Weekly export sales for wheat also bullish with nearly 30 MBU sold. Corn sales were only 14.1 MBU old crop and 12.3 new crop and soybean sales only 8.4 MBU old crop and 5.5 MBU new crop. New crop soybean sales now at 50.5 MBU, the lowest since 2005 and still no new crop soybean sales to China. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported soybean harvest is complete in Argentina with production at 50.5 MMT, right in line with USDA estimates. Corn harvest is 63% complete and they kept their production estimate at 46.5 MMT while USDA last month was still up at 53 MMT.
Weekly closes in the grains… September Corn +$.03, December +$.03 ¼, August Soybeans +$.32 ¾, November +$.25 ¾, September Chicago Wheat +$.18 ¾, September KC Wheat +$.12 ¾, September MPLS Wheat +$.20 ¼, August Soybean Meal +$11.2/T.
Grains all lower overnight as the weather premium is taken back out. Corn finished the overnight 6 to 7 lower, soybeans 13 to 19 lower and wheat 10 to 14 lower. Outside markets have equities higher, US$ steady to lower and energies lower with crude oil down $.70/barrel. USDA announced a private sale of 135,636 MT or 5.3 MBU of corn for delivery to unknown destinations split between old crop and new crop. Weekly export inspections will be released later this morning then crop progress and conditions this afternoon with expectations for another 1-2% lower fall crop conditions vs. last week.
Some hail reports in SW KS, south central NE and MN over the weekend. Temps this week fairly mild, except out West, with triple digits coming back into the Southern Plains by the weekend. Heavy rains expected from the Gulf up to the Great Lakes this week. The 6-10 day outlook shows above normal temps across the entire country with above normal moisture in the Southwest, ECB and East Coast and below normal moisture from the PNW to the Central Plains.
December corn spiking down to a 2-year low at $4.12 on June 28th with support next at $4 and $3.95 and resistance at $4.26 ½ then around $4.50. November soybeans breaking the $11 barrier last Monday, also down to a new 2-year low at $10.97, with resistance at $11.38 then $11.70. September Chicago wheat contract low back on March 6th at $5.50, down to a new recent low 2 weeks ago at $5.56 ¾ with resistance at $5.92. September KC wheat also hit a contract low on March 6th at $5.52, recent low at $5.76 ¼ with resistance at $6.00. September MPLS wheat down to a new contract low on June 25th at $6.02 with resistance at $6.36. August soybean meal trading sideways to lower over this past month with support at $344 and resistance at $360.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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