Date: March 5, 2024
Livestock futures spent most of the day in the red on Monday with nearby fats and all feeders finishing triple digits lower. All contracts posted losses yesterday except for deferred lean hogs.
Grains were higher to begin the week and steady to lower cash fed cattle trade last week providing the pressure or cautious start to this week. Last week’s negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 71,697 head with 79% committed to the nearby delivery and 21% committed to the deferred delivery. Southern live cattle sold for mostly $183, steady with the previous week’s weighted average, and Northern dressed cattle traded at mostly $290, $2 lower than last week’s weighted average.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 03/02/2024
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week: 227,500 46,200 6,200 279,900
Last Week: 281,800 40,200 57,900 379,900
Year Ago: 209,200 42,300 41,800 293,300
Compared to last week, steers and heifers in the North and South-Central areas sold steady to 3.00 higher, while the Southeast steers and heifers sold 2.00 lower to 1.00 higher. Demand was reported as good to very good this week as backgrounders were still in the market procuring grazing calves for turnout. The “grass fever” is upon most of the country as warmer than normal temperatures in the past week had spurred on the mindset of spring is just around the corner and we must have those calves. Pastures in many states are seeing a tint of green to them as the calendar just turns to March, uncommon for this time of year and some locations were bumping up against record highs over this past weekend.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/4/2024 – Final
This Week: 9,298 Last Week: 12,173 Last Year: 8,192
Compared to last week feeder steers under 725 lbs. sold 10.00-15.00 higher with heavier weights steady to 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold steady to mostly 5.00 higher with the exception of 4 weights selling up to 12.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaged $247 to $262 and 8 weights averaged $233 to $236.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/4/2024 – Prelim
This Week: 8,500 Last Week: 11,253 Last Year: 10,685
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers sold 3.00-6.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves traded fully 8.00-10.00 higher. Demand moderate to good. Spring is just around the corner and this has many graze out orders to be in top demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $250 to $257 and 8 weights averaged $234 to $243.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/4/2024 – Final
This Week: 4,878 Last Week: 5,975 Last Year: 3,795
Compared to the sale last week: steers 600-700 lbs were 5.00-9.00 higher, 750-950 mostly 1.00-5.00 lower. Heifers 450-650 lbs were mostly 5.00-10.00 higher with instances sharply higher especially in the 450-550 weight range. Heifers 700-800 lbs were mostly 2.00 higher, 850-900 lbs mostly steady today. 7 weight index steers averaged $248 to $271 and 8 weights averaged $237 to $249.
Cattle slaughter on Monday estimated at 116,000 head, down 6,000 from last week and down 8,627 from last year. Hog slaughter on Monday estimated at 493,000 head, up 1,000 compared to a week ago and up 27,298 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Monday higher on Choice but lower on Select on moderate to weak demand with 77 loads sold.
Choice +1.02 @ 306.30, Select -.57 @ 295.17
CME Feeder Cattle Index 246.38
CME Lean Hog Index 80.41
Pork Carcass Cutout -1.63 @ 92.82
April live cattle recent high at $189.20 from February 22nd and the nearby resistance with the next up around $195 and support at $184.50. March feeders up to a new recent high last week at $254.90, with resistance next at $258 and support at $244. April lean hogs recent high back on February 22nd at $88.90, the contract high at $91.62 and nearby support at $85.50.
Grains starting the week higher, led by the wheat markets as they tested the recent lows and bounced higher spurring some additional buying interest. Fundamentally positive news was lacking, funds have been buyers of wheat and corn lately leading to the recent technical or short covering rally.
Export inspections for the week ending February 29th met or exceeded expectations across the board yet still below the average needed per week for both corn and wheat. Corn shipments totaled 42.7 MBU with the average needed at 45.9 MBU. Year to date up 208.5 MBU vs. a year ago. Wheat shipments totaled 13 MBU with the average needed per week at 18.4 MBU. Sales continue to exceed last year but year to date shipments are down 99 MBU and need to pick up the pace here very soon or USDA will again cut the export estimate. Soybeans shipments totaled 37.5 MBU, still respectable, but YTD now down 314 MBU with the USDA export estimate down 272 MBU from last year. Grain sorghum shipments remain impressive at 5.2 MBU last week and year to date up to 140.4 MBU, on track to meet the export estimate.
Three states updated crop progress conditions Monday afternoon. Kansas wheat was rated 53% G/E, down 4% from last week, and P/VP remained unchanged at 13%. Texas wheat was rated 43% G/E, down 3% and 24% P/VP, up 5%. Corn planting moved up 11% week over week to 14% complete. Oklahoma wheat was rated 65% G/E, down 5% and 8% P/VP, up 2%.
Grains pulling back some but not taking out nearby support levels. Russian wheat prices continue to move lower and Australian wheat production estimates coming in higher than expected. Corn finished the overnight 2 to 3 lower, soybeans 2 to 4 lower and wheat 4 to 10 lower. No 8 AM flash export sales a bit disappointing as rumors were swirling yesterday that China was sniffing around for U.S. corn. Outside markets have equities lower, US$ and energies steady to lower.
High winds and a lack of moisture continues to be the main risk this week across the Plains. Light rains possible for the eastern halves of KS, OK and TX later this week and heavy rains expected in the Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook showing normal to above normal temps to continue across the majority of the U.S. with normal to above normal moisture from the Mississippi River west and below normal precip for the ECB and East Coast.
March grain contracts now in delivery. May corn contract low on February 26th at $4.08 ¾. The long term lower trend holding with resistance around $4.50. March corn contract low at $3.94 ½, the lowest for a spot contract since November 2020. May soybeans holding a 4-month long lower trend, a new contract low last week at $11.28 ½ and nearby resistance at $11.69. May Chicago wheat hit a new contract low yesterday and tested again overnight at $5.53 with strong resistance right around the $6 level. May KC wheat contract low on February 16th at $5.56 ¾ with resistance at $5.90. March MPLS wheat contract low on the 26th at $6.41 with resistance at $6.75. May meal new contract low last week at $323.2 with resistance at $345.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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