Date: January 31, 2024
Livestock futures on Tuesday all finished higher yet somewhat cautiously. Beef prices fell off and the recent weakness could keep packers from paying higher money this week. Cash trade has yet to develop. The biggest news of the week will the Biannual Cattle Inventory from USDA after the close today. It is anticipated to show total inventory still below a year ago, primarily fewer beef cows, and the continuation of liquidation. This will be supportive to the cattle market but may not rocket futures higher as both fats and feeders have already gained back 50% from the steep losses this past fall.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/29/2024 – Final
This Week: 11,315 Last Week: 6,700 Last Year: 2,961
Compared to last week feeder steers sold 7.00-22.00 higher with spots up to 27.00 higher. Feeder heifers under 700 lbs. sold 14.00-20.00 higher with heavier weights steady to 3.00 higher. Supply was heavy with very good demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $241 to $247 and 8 weights averaged $231 to $235.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/30/2024 – Final
This Week: 3,971 Last Week: 4,010 Last Year: 2,670
Compared to last week, steer calves under 700 lbs sold 5.00-15.00 higher and heavier weight calves and yearlings sold 5.00-8.00 higher. Heifers sold 5.00-10.00 higher. Demand was good to very good for a heavy supply.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/30/2024 – Final
This Week: 5,854 Last Week: 2,201 Last Year: 799
Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers were 4.00-8.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves were 6.00-12.00 higher. Demand was very good on a heavy supply. The largest draft of the day was 162 hd. of 962 lb. steers that brought 213.00/cwt.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/29/2024 – Final
This Week: 10,051 Last Week: 5,836 Last Year: 2,401
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers 5.00-10.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves 10.00-20.00 higher. Demand extremely good for all classes with very active trade. Quality average to attractive. 7 weight index steers averaged $235 to $242 and 8 weights averaged $226 to $229.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/29/2024 – Final
This Week: 6,337 Last Week: 4,803 Last Year: 2,011
Compared to the special feeder calf sale last Tuesday: steers 500-800 lbs were 5.00-7.00 to sharply higher. Heavier steers, 850 lbs, 11.00 higher. Light heifers, 600-750 lbs 10.00-12.00 to sharply higher. Numerous load lots offered of both calves and yearlings, along with many smaller packages of quality cattle. 7 weight index steers averaged $244 to $256 and 8 weights averaged $229 to $235.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 127,000 head, up 2,000 from last week and up 696 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 492,000 head, up 13,000 compared to a week ago and up 9,941 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday lower on moderate to good demand with 134 loads sold.
Choice Cutout -3.35 @ 296.07, Select Cutout -1.77 @ 287.05
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 236.28, Lean Hog Index @ 71.48
Pork Carcass Cutout -.52 @ 88.55
February live cattle up to a new 2-month high on Monday at $179.52 which is right up against the 50% retracement. Resistance next at $180 then $183 with support at $175. March feeders up to a new recent high on Monday also at $241.92, breaking through the 50% retracement last Friday. Resistance next at $244.50 and support at $231. February lean hogs still holding the long-term lower trend, but closing in on testing that line with a new recent high yesterday.
Grains were higher on Tuesday led by a key reversal higher for soybeans. This came after fresh new recent lows though as corn continues to chop sideways as well. Turnaround Tuesday or month end rebalancing also moving the grains yesterday. South American weather still the primary market mover as forecast turned back to hot and dry for Argentina.
Grains giving back some in the overnight with corn 1 to 2 lower, soybeans 4 to 6 lower and wheat 7 to 10 lower. Outside markets have equities mixed, US$ lower and energies steady to lower with crude oil down $.50/barrel.
The weekly EIA report will be out later this morning with a sizeable bounce back higher, up to 20%, in ethanol production. USDA census crush data will be out Thursday. The average trade guess for December soybean crush is at 206.1 MBU which would be another new all-time record. November’s crush was at 200.1 MBU and last December was 187.4 MBU.
U.S. West Coast and Southeast expected to see the most moisture over this next week. The 6-10 day outlook still holding above normal temps from the Rockies to the East Coast, below normal temps for the West Coast and above normal precip for the western half of the country with below normal precip for the eastern 1/3.
March corn down to a new contract low yesterday at $4.36 ½ before reversing higher with resistance at $4.53. March soybeans down to a new recent low yesterday at $11.87 ¾ before the key reversal higher with support at $11.75 and resistance at $12.47 ½. March Chicago wheat contract low back in late November at $5.56 ¼, rallied sharply higher for a couple weeks, but now holding a lower trend with support at $5.73 and resistance at $6.17. March KC wheat down to a new contract low on the 18th at $5.86 ¾ with resistance around $6.40. March MPLS wheat down to a new contract low on the 18th at $6.78 ¾ with resistance at $7.11. March meal down to a new recent low on Monday at $346.2 with resistance around $370.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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