Date: September 18, 2023
Cattle futures continued to rally last week with live and feeder cattle contracts all making new contract highs. Both spot contracts also hit new all-time highs. Funds continue to buy in anticipation of tighter fed cattle supplies and higher prices through the end of the year. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade in the South reported another $2 to $3 higher at $182 to $183 live. Trade in the North also $2 higher than the week previous at $184 to $186 live and $292 dressed.
Weekly closes for livestock futures and meats…October Live Cattle +$3.70, December +$4.40, September Feeder Cattle +$2.02, October +$5.32, October Lean Hogs +$1.60, December +$.65, Choice Boxed Beef -$7.19 at $305.71 and Pork Carcass Cutout +$1.03 at $98.83.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 9/10/2023 – 9/16/2023
Receipts: Current Week 36,713 Last Week 15,023 Last Year 40,457
Compared to last week’s light test: Feeder steers 3.00-5.00 higher. Feeder heifers steady to 3.00 higher. Steer calves 6.00-10.00 higher, instance to 20.00 higher on lighter weights. Heifer calves 3.00-8.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 632,000 head, up 73,000 from the week previous but down 41,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 519.6 million pounds with year to date still -5.0% vs. last year and slaughter now -4.3%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,531,000 head, up 297,000 compared to the week previous and up 45,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production estimated at 521.5 million pounds last week with year to date +0.2% vs. last year and slaughter +1.3%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday lower on good demand with 156 loads sold.
Choice Cutout -.66 @ 305.71, Select Cutout -3.74 @ 283.12
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 253.39, Lean Hog Index @ 86.93
Pork Carcass Cutout -.26 @ 98.83
October live cattle again hitting a new contract and all-time spot high on Friday at $187.30 with support around $182 then $179.50. September feeders also hitting a new contract and all-time spot high on Friday at $257.50 with support at $252.85 then $250. October lean hogs holding a month-long higher trend with resistance at $85.60 then $86.75 and support at $82 then $80.95.
Grains were mixed on Friday with fall crops lower and wheat higher. There was little new news to move the markets beyond a smaller than expected August crush data. NOPA’s August crush came in at 161.45 MBU of soybeans, an 11-month low, below the average trade guess at 167.8 MBU and sharply lower than the July total at 173.3 MBU. Corn tried the upside early but harvest pressure brought the selling in as I would expect this was a large harvest weekend. Wheat futures held gains but it wasn’t very aggressive buying, more than anything just some short covering. Outside markets were mixed as the U.S. dollar continues to rally which doesn’t help the already lethargic exports. Crude is also rallying, getting above the $90 mark for the first time in over a year.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders report on Friday showed managed fund money through the trade week ending 9/12 as sellers of all grains and more than expected. They sold 40.9k corn contracts (net short 134.9k), sold 8.9k soybean contracts but still net long 73.8k, sold 5.4k Chicago wheat contracts (net short 84.1k) and sold 3.3k KC wheat contracts (net short 13.1k).
Weekly closes in the grains…December Corn -$.07 ½, March -$.07 ½, November Soybeans -$.22 ¾, January -$.22 ¼, December Chicago Wheat +$.08 ½, March +$.07 ¾, December KC Wheat +$.14 ½, March +$.16, December MPLS Wheat +$.18 ¼, March +$.16 ¼, October Soybean Meal -$9.1/T, December -$9.3/T.
Grains were mostly lower overnight with wheat the leader. Russian FOB wheat offers down another $5 to $235/MT or $6.40/BU. Corn finished the overnight steady to ½ lower, soybeans 2 to 3 lower and wheat 5 to 10 lower. Outside markets have equities higher, US$ steady to lower and energies higher with crude up $1/barrel. USDA announced a private sale this morning of 123,000 MT or 4.5 MBU of soybeans for delivery to China.
Weather looks fairly wide open this week for fall harvest to continue swiftly. Rains are in the forecast throughout the Plains by the weekend. The 6-10 day outlook showing normal to above normal temps and moisture across the country except for strip of below normal moisture in the Southwest up into the Rockies and a small pocket around the Great Lakes.
December corn breaking nearby support this morning and into new recent lows with support next at $4.70 and resistance at $4.90 then $5.07 ½. November soybeans also breaking nearby support this morning with the next down at $13.03 and resistance at $13.73. December Chicago wheat hit a new contract low last week at $5.70 with resistance at $6.15. December KC wheat hit a new low for the year last week at $7.09 with resistance around $7.50 then $7.70. December MPLS wheat hit a new contract low on September 5th but holding a short-term higher trend since with resistance next at $8.20. October soybean meal breaking nearby support with the next down at $383 and resistance at $403.
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