Date: August 23, 2023
A red day for all Ag futures yesterday with only Chicago wheat and cotton able to settle with small gains. Sell it all Tuesday in the end but at least we did have some mixed trade for feeders. Both fats and feeders closed the gaps from Monday’s strong open. The friendly July feedlot placements still fresh on all our minds but the lower cash fed trade last week wins out with live cattle ready to test nearby support levels again this week. Showlists do appear to be smaller this week, so yet again, I would not expect to see much volume trade until late in the week.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/21/2023 – Final
This Week: 5,259 Last Week: 8,114 Last Year: 7,596
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 2.00 lower. Heifers 2.00 – 4.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves steady to 3.00 lower. Demand moderate to good. Quality mostly average. Extreme heat affecting most of the region over the last week, with more in the forecast. 7 weight index steers averaged $246-$255 and 8 weights averaged $237-$240.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/21/2023 – Final
This Week: 3,529 Last Week: 5,838 Last Year: 4,310
Compared to last week feeder steers under 625 lbs. sold 6.00-8.00 lower with heavier weights steady to 2.00 lower. Feeder heifers under 625 lbs. sold 8.00-10,00 lower with heavier weights selling steady. Supply was light with moderate demand. There was several drafts of the more plain cattle. Very hot temperatures caused supply to be lower. 7 weight index steers averaged $250-$253 and 8 weights averaged $240.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 124,000 head, down 1,000 from last week and down 3,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 476,000 head, matching a week ago but down 6,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on moderate demand with 96 loads sold.
Choice Cutout +1.49 @ 317.05, Select Cutout +2.18 @ 289.51
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 244.96, Lean Hog Index @ 98.04
Pork Carcass Cutout -1.56 @ 103.65
August live cattle with nearby support still at $176.80 then at $175 and resistance at $181.70 then the all-time spot high from July 20th at $182.97. August feeders choppy/rangebound trade for the past couple months. Nearby support taken out last week with the next at $242 and resistance at $250 then the contract and all-time spot high from July 12th at $251.30. October lean hogs pulling back to a new recent low last week at $77.75 from the August high up at $86.75. The contract did rally up to find nearby resistance at the 20-day moving average so far this week just above $82.
Two days into the Pro Farmer Crop tour and so far SD and OH both look great, soybeans still need some help from the weather. NE and IN though looked to be well below last year and the past few year’s for both corn and soybeans. The next two days will wrap up with IA, IL and MN which will all be very interesting and I’m sure a very mixed bag. Remember, do not look at the yields vs. USDA numbers but vs. historical tour data. Corn futures tested resistance Sunday night, now back to test nearby support. Chicago and KC wheat futures still holding support at their new lows last week. Soybeans still holding the higher trend in August.
Grains were mixed overnight on fairly tight trading ranges. More Russian drone strikes on Ukraine ports, yet still not enough new news to spark a rally. The bearish side is still world trade with SE Asian countries buying Brazilian corn and even Russian feed wheat this week. Corn finished the overnight 2 to 3 higher, soybeans 3 to 9 lower and wheat 1 lower to 1 higher. Outside markets have equities higher, US$ higher and energies lower with crude down $1.30/barrel. USDA reported a private sale of 100,000 MT of new crop soybean meal for delivery to unknown destinations.
The Pro Farmer corn tour will have IL wrapped up today with state wide results later this evening. IL has been the yield leader the past two years for both corn and soybeans. The tour estimated corn yield last year at 190.7 with the 3-year average at 192 and soybean pod counts well over 1200.
The excessive heat continues through Friday from eastern KS to southern IN down into the Southeast. The Southwest and Rockies expected to see rains through the weekend with scattered chances in the Plains. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps across the country except for some below normal temps in the Northeast that may creep into parts of the ECB with above normal moisture out West and in the Southeast but below normal still parked right over Corn Belt.
December corn down to a new recent low last week at $4.73 ½ with resistance at $5.07 ½ then at $5.23. November soybeans up to $13.81 on Monday which filled the gap lower move back on July 31st, but no follow through buying since and back testing nearby support just above $13.30 with the next strong support right around the $13 level. September KC wheat down to a new recent low last week at $7.30 ¼ with resistance at $7.61 then $7.75. September Chicago wheat hit a new contract low last week at $5.86 ¼ with resistance at $6.40 then $6.60. September MPLS wheat hitting a new contract low yesterday at $7.69 ¾ with resistance at $8.03.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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