Date: August 16, 2023
Tuesday was an almost entirely red day across all Ag futures. Equites were sharply lower, US$ flat and energies lower. Feeder cattle did spend some of the day trading in positive territory early on, but those gains faded into the close. There seems to be an overall cautious approach when trading cattle lately. Live cattle futures are hard pressed to retest the all-time highs until confirmation cash is ready to rally. Feeders as well still cautious to test the highs from July even with corn into new recent lows. USDA will release the August cattle on feed report this Friday after the close with expectations of 98% on feed compared to a year ago and only 95% for placements and marketings. The past two months have given the markets somewhat bearish placements numbers especially in terms of the trade estimates.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/14/2023 – Final
This Week: 8,114 Last Week: 6,192 Last Year: 6,001
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers mostly steady. Steer and heifer calves steady to 2.00 higher. Demand good. Quality average to attractive. 7 weight index steers averaged $248-$260 and 8 weights averaged $232-$240.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/14/2023 – Final
This Week: 5,838 Last Week: 5,356 Last Year: 4,348
Compared to last week feeder steers sold steady to 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold steady to 2.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaged $256 and 8 weights averaged $242.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/15/2023 – Final
This Week: 2,199 Last Week: 1,998 Last Year: 2,064
Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers were steady to 2.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves sold 3.00-6.00 higher. Demand was good on a light to moderate supply. The supply consisted of mostly small drafts with an abundance of short-weaned calves and bull calves in the offering. Pasture conditions continue to improve and are better than average, for the middle of August, however low hay supplies continue to be a concern.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/14/2023 – Final
This Week: 1,691 Last Week: 1,213 Last Year: 3,000
Compared to last week: Feeder steers sold with higher undertones, there were not any good weight comparisons to make a definite market call. Feeder heifers 800 lbs – 850 lbs 4.00 to 7.00 higher, other weights sold with higher undertones, with no other weights to make a meaningful comparison. Demand for this nice offering of feeder cattle was good.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 125,000 head, up 1,000 from last week but down 2,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 476,000 head, up 5,000 compared to a week ago but down 3,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on good demand with 147 loads sold.
Choice Cutout +1.76 @ 307.26, Select Cutout +2.58 @ 283.03
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 244.64, Lean Hog Index @ 101.93
Pork Carcass Cutout -.45 @ 108.63
August live cattle continue to hold a long-term higher trend with the contract high and all-time spot high on July 20th at $182.97. Nearby support taken out yesterday with the next down at $177.62 and resistance at $181.70. August feeders also holding the long-term higher trend with the contract and all-time spot high hit back on July 12th at $251.30. Nearby support at $244.15 then $242 with resistance at $250. October lean hogs trending lower so far this month with support at $77.57 and resistance up at the recent high at $86.75.
All grains were lower as soybeans gave back all the gains made on Monday while corn and wheat futures broke through for new lows. Fall crop conditions improved more than expected after the close on Monday with corn rated good to excellent up 2% and soybeans up 5%. The weather forecasts for the last half of August though still show above normal temps and below normal moisture. Other news was very light yesterday which allowed the bears to press the sell button even harder once corn and KC wheat broke into new almost 2-year lows on the spot weekly charts.
Grains recovering some overnight but lows tested or fresh new lows for corn and wheat. Corn finished the overnight 1 to 2 higher, soybeans 8 to 10 higher and wheat 1 lower to 4 higher. Outside markets have equities higher, US$ steady to lower and energies steady to higher.
Russian drone strikes reported again overnight on port facilities along the Danube River. These are the last remaining Ukraine ports currently able to send out exports and also very close to Romania. The weekly EIA report will come out later this morning with most looking for a small ethanol production increase week over week after last week’s surprising 4% reduction.
Little to no rain expected over this next week except for some chances of heavy rains in the Southwest. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlook showing above normal temps across the Central Plains to the East Coast with below normal temps only in the Southwest and below normal moisture for the eastern half of the country with above normal precip out West.
December corn a new recent low overnight at $4.73 ½ with the spot September matching yesterday’s low at $4.62 which is the lowest spot price since December 2020. Nearby resistance for the September contract at $4.94 and for December at $5.07. November soybeans holding out the best as August weather premium still in place. Nearby support at $13.00 then $12.82 with resistance at $13.38. September KC wheat a new recent low on Monday at $7.32 ¾, 1 tick below the May low at $7.33 with resistance at $7.80. September Chicago wheat a new recent low overnight at $5.91 ½, support next the May low at $5.87 ¾ and nearby resistance around $6.60. September MPLS wheat also a new recent low overnight at $7.84 ½, support next at $7.78 ¼ then the contract low at $7.71 ¾ with resistance at $8.36 ½.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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