Date: July 25, 2023
Livestock futures all lower yesterday with corn sharply higher and spillover pressure from the bearish June placements reported after the close last Friday. Markets should settle down, if grains calm some this week. Live cattle still supported by higher cash trade last week, mostly $180 live in the South and $295 dressed in the North. Top end trade though reached up to $187 live and $300 dressed. Some very light trade already reported this week in Iowa at $188 to $190 live, steady to $2 higher than last week. Over these next couple weeks and heading in Labor Day, packers will be balancing slaughter levels with the smaller fed cattle supply to try and stabilize boxed beef prices.
NATIONAL FEEDER &; STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 07/22/2023
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week: 121,500 37,900 9,900 169,300
Last Week: 177,600 90,300 422,700 690,600
Year Ago: 142,300 52,100 135,200 329,600
Compared to a week ago, steers sold 1.00 lower to 5.00 higher with the exception of 600 to 700 lbs steers in the North Central region selling 13.00 lower. Heifers sold steady to 6.00 higher with the exception of 600 to 800 lbs heifers in the North Central region selling 4.00 lower. Demand was moderate to good with buyers discounting calves with high health risks which aren’t expected to perform well in the summer heat.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/24/2023 – Final
This Week: 4,808 Last Week: 6,278 Last Year: 6,187
Compared to last week feeder steers sold steady. Feeder heifers sold steady to 5.00 higher with the most gain on weights over 525 lbs. Supply was moderate with good demand. 7 weight index steers averaged $242-$243 and 8 weights averaged $237.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/24/2023 – Prelim
This Week: 6,700 Last Week: 6,134 Last Year: 6,771
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 4.00 lower but most decline over 800 lbs. Feeder heifers steady to 2.00 lower. Demand moderate to good for feeder cattle. Several nice thin fleshed feeders on offer and headed to summer pasture. Steer calves 5.00-10.00 lower with several un-weaned or short weaned calves on offer. Heifer calves 4.00-8.00 lower. Demand moderate to good for calves. 7 weight index steers averaged $243-$248 and 8 weights averaged $232-$236.50.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/24/2023 – Final
This Week: 2,181 Last Report: 1,948 Last Year: 2,885
Compared to two weeks ago: Feeder steers 800-1000 lbs steady to 5.00 higher, heifers 800-950 lbs steady to 5.00 higher, other weights of steers and heifers not well compared. 7 weight index steers averaged $251-$270 and 8 weights averaged $244-$253.
Cattle slaughter on Monday estimated at 126,000 head, up 6,000 from last week and up 3,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Monday estimated at 456,000 head, up 7,000 compared to a week ago and up 4,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on moderate demand with 99 loads sold.
Choice Cutout +1.42 @ 304.16, Select Cutout +.26 @ 276.99
CME Feeder Cattle Index @ 241.93, Lean Hog Index @ 104.60
Pork Carcass Cutout +1.96 @ 117.21
August live cattle hit a new contract high and all-time spot high last week at $182.97 with support at $177 then $175.20. August feeders contract and all-time spot high was hit back on July 12th at $251.30 with choppy trade since. Nearby resistance at $250 with support at $240.80 then $238. August lean hogs up to a new recent high last Friday at $101.87 with resistance next right around $105 and support down at $94.
Over in the grains, wheat the leader out of the gates on Monday as both KC and Chicago wheat contracts race to $.60 higher, the daily limit. Only the spot September Chicago wheat contract was able to close limit higher, but this still triggered the CME to expand limits to $.90 today for both KC and Chicago wheat. Russia continues to hit Ukraine ports, destroying infrastructure, facilities and even stored grain. Specifically, yesterday’s news was highlighted by reports that now ports along the Danube River were being targeted. This was seen as primary alternative to get grains out of Ukraine with the Black Sea deal done and these ports are not too far away from Romania, a NATO member. This along with the blazing heat this week across the U.S. and Europe continues to support higher grain prices. Italy set new all-time record highs yesterday from 115 to 118 as triple digits here in the U.S. this week will reach as far North as SD and MN.
Grain inspections for the week ending July 20th continue to disappoint for corn at only 12.2 MBU. This is the lowest total since November and 2nd lowest weekly total for this current marketing year. The average needed per week is up at 27.8 MBU with only 6 weeks left to go. Soybean inspections were in line with expectations at 10.4 MBU and the average needed per week is at 11.7 MBU. The top destination for corn was Mexico and Germany for soybeans.
Wheat inspections were above expectations at 13.2 MBU and finally getting close the average needed per week at 14.4 MBU. The Philippines were the top destination with 64% headed to SE Asia. Grain sorghum inspections were impressive at 6.7 MBU, most of which heading to China. When you include the Census adjustments through May with inspections, the year to date total now up to 92 MBU which exceeds the USDA export estimate at 90 MBU.
Crop progress and conditions were updated after the close as most expected fall crop conditions unchanged to slightly better. Corn conditions were unchanged at 13% rated poor to very poor and 57% rated good to excellent. Soybean conditions though dropped another point to 54% rated good to excellent. MO remains the worst state with only 27% of both their corn and soybean crop rated good to excellent. The largest percentage drop was seen in MN with corn conditions down 6% and soybean conditions down 7%. Both crops still remain ahead of average with 68% of the corn crop silking and 9% in the dough stage while 70% of the soybean crop is blooming and 35% is setting pods. Winter wheat harvest advanced 12% last week to now 68% complete nationwide. OK and TX are finally wrapped up but KS only at 87% and CO at 48%.
Grains pulled back overnight with corn finishing 11 lower, soybeans 15 to 18 lower and wheat 8 to 12 lower. Outside markets have equities mixed, US$ higher and energies lower with crude down $.20/barrel. Russian air strikes last night in Ukraine the lightest in over a week.
Hazardous heat from the Plains to the East Coast still in the forecast until the end of the month with only light rains expected in parts of the northern Corn Belt and the Great Lakes. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps in the Mountain West and southern half of the U.S., normal temps for the northern half and even below normal temps in the Northeast with below normal moisture in the Southeast and above normal stretching across the middle of the U.S.
September corn has rallied $.90 in two weeks with a new recent high yesterday at $5.64 ½, resistance next at $5.90 and support at $5.22. December corn looks similar with a new recent high yesterday at $5.72 ¼, the low two weeks ago at $4.81, resistance next up around the $6 level and support at $5.31. August soybeans up to a new contract high yesterday at $15.37 with support at $14.90 then $14.70. November soybeans up to a new recent high yesterday at $14.35, the contract high is at $14.48 ¼, and support down at $13.85. September KC wheat breaking out of the 7-month long trading range and a new recent high overnight at $9.29 ¾. Resistance is up at $9.45 then $9.60 with support at $8.42. September Chicago wheat also a new recent high overnight at $7.77 ¼ with the next upside target at $8.18 ¾ and support at $6.93 ½.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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