Date: April 5th, 2023
It was an entirely red day across all the Ag futures yesterday. Little new fundamental news, China on holiday and a 4-day trading week here could already be influencing traders. Cattle did start the day higher but starting fading shortly after the open. Long term fundamentals for cattle are still supportive, as I’ve said before, even in a bullish market it does not mean we have to go higher every day. The new highs for fats hit on Monday and feeders last Friday, so far this week it appears traders want to make sure the nearby fundamentals remain supportive as well. By that, I mean that beef can at least hold steady if not continue to increase along with the continued strong domestic demand as we approach the summer grilling season. Another boost would of course be higher cash fed cattle trade again this week. Asking prices in the South have already been reported at $170 live.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/3/2023 – Final
This Week: 7,540 Last Week: 6,053 Last Year: 8,181
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers 3.00-6.00 higher, with instances 8.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves 6.00-10.00 higher, with instances 15.00 higher. Demand moderate to good. Strong winds and dry conditions continue to cause early drought conditions. 7 weight index steers averaged $195-$200 and 8 weights averaged $183-$194.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/3/2023 – Final
This Week: 3,066 Last Week: 2,308 Last Year: 2,059
Compared to last week: Steers 5.00-7.00 higher. Heifers unevenly steady with heifers weighing over 600 pounds having a higher undertone noted. Demand good. Quality good
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/3/2023 – Final
This Week: 9,088 Last Week: 7,380 Last Year: 6,364
Compared to last week feeder steers sold 3.00-8.00 higher. Feeder heifers sold 4.00-7.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaged $208-$209 and 8 weights averaged $186-$189.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/3/2023 – Final
This Week: 4,319 Last Week: 3,624 Last Year: 2,006
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 5.00 higher with instances of 29.00 on light cattle except, 550 lbs – 600 lbs 5.00 to 10.00 lower, 850 lbs – 950 lbs steady to 2.00 lower. Feeder heifers steady to 5.00 higher with instances of 20.00 on the light weights except, 800 lbs – 950 lbs steady to 5.00 lower. 7 weight index steers averaged $209-$213 and 8 weights averaged $191-$203.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/4/2023 – Final
This Week: 2,178 Last Week: 2,363 Last Year: 2,531
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves sold steady to 5.00 higher with the largest gain on heifers. Yearling were not well tested with only 8 percent of the offering weighing over 700 lbs. Demand was very good on a light supply.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 126,000 head, down 1,000 from last week but up 1,000 from last year. Monday’s estimate was revised 7,000 lower to 117,000 head. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 481,000 head, up 1,000 compared to a week ago and matching a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on moderate demand with 107 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__287.94 +2.85
Select Cutout__277.95 +3.77
CME Feeder Cattle Index__193.02 +1.34
CME Lean Hog Index__74.68 -.82
Pork Carcass Cutout __76.85 -1.47
April live cattle hit a new contract high on Monday at $169.42 before reversing lower. The next upside target is $170 with the all-time spot high at $171.97 from October 2014 and nearby support is at $166. April feeders hit a new contract high on Friday at $202.25 with the next upside target at $205 and nearby support at $196.60. The all-time spot high, also from October 2014, but a little further away at $245.20. April lean hogs down to a new contract low again yesterday at $72.10. The next downside target is at $70.20, the spot low from December 2021, then what should be some strong support around $64, the lows from the winter of 2020.
Over in the grains, new buying did not come in for corn or soybeans yet no damage has been done to the charts yet. May corn continues to hold a month long higher trend and soybeans up sharply last week seemed to need a bit of a break. Wheat held up the best on Tuesday but I’m still surprised we didn’t see decent gains as the first national crop progress was out Monday after the close and winter wheat conditions remain near the worst in recent history. Good to excellent conditions nationwide only at 28% compared to 34% for the final report last fall. KS, OK and CO were all significantly lower than the prior week’s state reports. U.S. weather forecasts improving some as after this week’s wet weather across the Southeast and ECB, temps look to be above normal and dry for the next couple weeks across the majority of the major grain areas.
Grains all lower overnight led by the wheat markets. Outside markets have equites lower, US$ a shade lower and energies steady to lower with crude oil down $.20/barrel. It’s hard to find much fundamental news to push wheat, especially KC wheat being the leader lower. One rumor swirling yesterday afternoon is talk of a cargo of 13.5 pro Baltic Sea origin wheat being sought to import into the U.S. This could certainly be coming into the Southeast chicken market, as does soybeans or meal sometimes from South America. If it ends up being true, it is certainly a reminder just how high our wheat prices are still compared to other origins. Corn finished the overnight 3 to 6 lower, soybeans 6 to 11 lower and wheat 12 to 19 lower. USDA reported private sales this morning of 125,000 MT or 4.9 MBU of corn and 276,000 MT or 10.1 MBU of soybeans all for delivery to unknown destinations.
Storms rolling through the Midwest today and more heavy rains still in the forecast for the Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps and below normal precipitation across most of the U.S. Only the West Coast showing below normal temps and above normal precipitation. If you want to look further out, the 8-14 day outlook showing about the same temperature chances but above normal precipitation covering the western 2/3 of the U.S. and below normal remains in place for the Southeast, ECB and East Coast.
May corn still holding a higher trend since bottoming out back on March 10th at $6.06 ¾ with resistance up at $6.85. December still holding the long-term lower trend with support at $5.47 ½ and nearby resistance at $5.76. May soybeans sharply higher last week, gaining over $1.20 in 7 trading days with support at $14.65 and resistance at $15.28 then around $15.40. The November contract also sharply higher with nearby support at $12.95 and resistance at $13.43. May KC wheat hit a low on March 10th at $7.72 ½, holding a higher trend since and tested resistance on Monday with a $9.02 high with nearby support at $8.40. May Chicago wheat very choppy over the past month with support at $6.54 and resistance at $7.24. May MPLS wheat hit a new contract low on March 10th at $8.14 but trending higher since with resistance from $9.20 to $9.28. May soybean meal hit a new contract high on March 7th at $498, down to a new recent low on March 24th at $435, with nearby resistance at $470.
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