Date: March 29th, 2023
Livestock futures mixed on Tuesday following strong gains on Monday. Lean hogs and feeders struggled and traded fairly tight ranges, both within Monday’s range. The nearby live cattle contract was able to extend gains and it would not surprise me to see steady to $2 higher cash trade this week. Asking prices in the South have already been reported from $165 to $166 live with nothing noted yet up North.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/28/2023 – Final
This Week: 2,363 Last Week: 2,279 Last Year: 3,223
Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers sold 2.00-4.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves sold 3.00-6.00 higher. Demand was good to very good on a light to moderate supply. Following a weekend of heavy rains and flooding, sunshine and warmer temperatures were a welcomed sign of Spring. Pasture conditions are improving but are still in need of warmer nighttime temperatures to get the grass growing faster than the cattle can graze.
Winter Livestock (Tuesday) – La Junta, CO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/28/2023 – Final
This Week: 1,384 Last Week: 1,331 Last Year: 786
Compared with two weeks ago Steer and heifer calves lightly tested, Feeder steers over 700 lbs mostly steady. Heifers over 700 lbs steady to 2.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 127,000 head, matching last week and up 2,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 480,000 head, down 5,000 compared to a week ago and compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on moderate demand with 103 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__280.63 +.27
Select Cutout__270.36 +.64
CME Feeder Cattle Index__191.34 +.10
CME Lean Hog Index__76.57 -.42
Pork Carcass Cutout __80.00 -1.22
April live cattle breaking nearby resistance and filled the gap form earlier this month with the contract high the next upside target which was on March 6th at $166.67 and support down at $161.75. March feeders also breaking through nearby resistance and the next upside target the contract high from March 9th at $194.32 with support at $188, but set to expire tomorrow. The April chart looks similar with support at $192.65, nearby resistance at $198 and the contract high from March 9th at $200.77. April lean hogs down to a new contract low last week at $75.12 with resistance at $82.10.
May soybeans led the way higher yesterday with a strongest single day rally in 3 months. Not much new fundamental news, right now its short covering/chart buying heading into the end of the month and USDA crop report day on Friday. Soybean harvest in Brazil closing in on 70% complete and second crop corn planting over 90% complete. The markets will begin to shift their focus from all of South America weather to only Brazilian corn areas and of course to here in the U.S. during April. More rain in the forecast for the Southeast and ECB later this week along with another snow storm for the Dakotas and MN next week.
Grains traded mostly higher overnight. Outside markets had energies, US$ and equites higher. Corn finished the overnight 1 to 5 higher, soybeans steady to 2 higher and wheat 10 to 17 higher. Cargill announced they will stop shipping Russian wheat starting July 1st. Russia stating this will have no effect on overall grain shipments, but it was enough to spook the markets and continue the short covering rally. USDA announced another private corn sale to China this morning, 204,000 MT or 8 MBU. Total corn sales 11 out of the past 12 business days over 126 MBU, almost all to China.
Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks will be released on Friday at 11AM CST. The average trade estimates are looking for lower corn, soybean and wheat stocks than a year ago. This of course already expected as ending stocks have been projected lower this entire marketing year. Quarterly Stocks provide some important information as 1st quarter usage is confirmed and better estimates for usage can be made for the balance of the year. The average of the pre report trade estimates for the Prospective Plantings have corn acres 2.3 million higher than last year at 90.88 million and soybean acres nearly 800K higher than a year ago at 88.242 million. All wheat acres projected at 48.852 million acres which would be slightly higher than last year and grain sorghum acres at 6.7 million which would be up 377K. So, where’s the acreage cut coming…cotton. The average trade estimate for acres planted to cotton at 11.212 million which would be down 2.5 million from last year.
U.S. weather forecast still showing heaving rains for the Southeast and ECB to end this week then heavy snow from SD into the Great Lakes early next week. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps north and west and above normal temps for the Southern Plains, Corn Belt and entire eastern half of the U.S. with above normal precipitation for most areas.
May corn very choppy this month with the low down at $6.06 ¾ back on March 10th and recovering since with 5 consecutive days of new recent highs and resistance up at $6.85. December has been trending lower since October with a new recent low last week at $5.47 ½, support next at $5.43, nearby resistance at $5.79 then around $5.87. May soybeans down to a new recent low last Friday at $14.05 with support next at $13.80 and resistance at $15.00. The November contract also down to a new recent low last Friday at $12.47 ½, support next at $12.17 and resistance up at $13.30. May KC wheat hit a low on March 10th at $7.72 ½, sharply higher since, and looking to test the resistance around the $9 level. May Chicago wheat a new recent low last week at $6.54, breaking nearby resistance overnight with the next up around $7.60. May MPLS wheat a new contract low on March 10th at $8.14, bouncing higher since with resistance next around $9.20. May soybean meal hit a new contract high on March 7th at $498, down to a new recent low last week at $435, with nearby resistance at $470.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
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