Date: March 6th, 2023
Livestock futures finished higher last Friday which allowed for live cattle to settle near steady for the week and feeders higher week over week. Cash fed cattle trade added another $1 to $5 compared to the week previous with live trade in the South at $165 and trade in North from $165 to $167 live and $262 to mostly $265 on a dressed basis. Negotiated cash has been higher when compared to the year previous every week so far this year and all of 2022 while less than half of the time beef prices have been higher. The leverage continues to shift from packers to cattle feeders and should continue until slaughter ready supplies are back in a surplus so long as demand remains strong.
Weekly closes in the meats had April Live Cattle up $.05, June down $.40, March Feeder Cattle up $.92, May up $2.45, August up $3.15, April Lean Hogs down $1.47 and June down $2.85. Boxed Beef, Choice +$2.04 @ $289.32, Select -$.22 @ $276.86, Pork Carcass Cutout +$.22 @ $85.57. Monthly closes for February had April Live Cattle up $2.45, March Feeders up $3.65 and April Hogs down $1.25.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 2/26/2023 – 3/4/2023
Total Receipts: Current Week 28,906 Last Report (2/20/23) 32,143 Last Year 33,559
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 3.00-5.00 higher. Feeder heifers 3.00-6.00 higher. Demand good for feeder cattle. Stocker cattle sold 3.00-6.00 higher with grass accounts continuing active this week. Steer and heifer calves sold 2.00-6.00 higher. Carcass weights continue to decline some because of the continued winter storms in the north. Slaughter rates have become lighter as well as those cattle are not gaining at the highest of levels. On the other hand, cattle in the south have had good feeding conditions but just dealing with many days of high wind and dust. Rains continue to move thru the state with the bulk of the moisture in the East and South East.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday were higher on Choice but lower on Select on moderate to weak demand with 77 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__289.32 +.82
Select Cutout__276.86 -.72
CME Feeder Cattle Index__185.43 +1.41
CME Lean Hog Index__78.71 +.06
Pork Carcass Cutout __85.57 -.16
April live cattle holding a long-term higher trend with nearby support at $163.50, the contract high at $166.40 and the next upside target at $167.50 which was the contract high and expiration for the February contract. March feeders showing sharply higher trend over the past two months with support at $187.70, resistance at $191.10 (last week’s new recent high) and the contract high from August 18th at $192.62. All contracts April forward hit new contract highs last Wednesday, March 1st. April lean hogs remain very choppy, currently in the middle of the range traded over this past two months from $81.27 to $89.87.
Grains were mixed on Friday and for the week. Soybeans led the charge back higher with wheat continuing to drift lower. Argentine crop ratings and production estimates continue to decline. Brazil soy harvest is over 40% complete, still behind the average pace by more than 10% and still advancing slowly due to multiple rain events. Ethanol and crude oil rallied last week helping support corn but export demand is still lacking.
Weekly closes in the grains had May corn down $.09 ½, December down $.05 ¼, May soybeans down ½ penny, November down $.01, May KC wheat down $.19, new crop July down $.19 ¼, May Chicago wheat down $.13 and July down $.12 ½, May MPLS wheat down $.09 ¾, September down $.03 ½. Monthly closes for February had May corn down $.47 ¼, May soybeans down $.51 ¼, May KC wheat down $.59 and May Chicago wheat down $.65, May MPLS wheat down $.48 ¾.
Grains all lower overnight as both KC and Chicago wheat made new lows but both corn and soybeans holding within Friday’s trading range. All grains opened the overnight just slightly lower but losses expanded up to the morning break. Outside markets show equities higher, US$ steady to lower and energies lower with crude down $.50/barrel. Corn finished the overnight 3 to 4 lower, soybeans 3 to 6 lower and wheat 7 to 16 lower. USDA reported a private sale of 110,000 MT or 4.3 MBU of corn sold to Japan and 182,400 MT or 7.2 MBU of corn sold for unknown destinations.
USDA will update domestic demand and world supply and demand on Wednesday morning. The most influential numbers the markets are waiting for are updates on both Argentina and Brazil corn and soybean production estimates. I would expect to see continued reduction of both Argentina’s crops while USDA will most likely leave Brazil unchanged. The other market mover could be a decrease in both U.S. corn and grain sorghum exports as both sales and shipments are way behind.
Forecasts for Argentina improving with rain chances increasing over the next 10-14 days but still hot and dry this week. India still dealing with extreme heat but forecasted to receive some rain which should hold off the excessive heat later in the week.
Heavy rains over the ECB the past few days could cause some localized flooding. This week looks wet from Eastern KS down into OK and over into MO. The 6–10-day outlook showing below normal temps across the country except for normal to above normal for the Southwest and above normal moisture for the western half of the U.S. with normal to above normal for the eastern half.
May corn down to a new recent low last week at $6.22 ¼ with support next at $6.15 and resistance up around $6.70. December has been trending lower since October with a new recent low last week at the price support line at $5.64, resistance at $5.98. May soybeans down to a new recent low last week at $14.77 ¾ with resistance at $15.49 ¾. The November contract remains rangebound with last week’s low at $13.45, support down at $13.30 from late January and resistance up at $14.02. May KC wheat broke through the $8 support level overnight with the next downside target around $7.40 and resistance at $8.59. May Chicago wheat took out the $7 support level overnight, the next down at $6.70, resistance up around $7.50. May MPLS wheat holding support at $8.60 so far, the contract low is at $8.42 ¼ and resistance at $9.04.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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