Date: January 24th, 2023
Livestock futures mostly higher on Monday as cattle futures were able to hold gains into the close but lean hogs slipped into the red. Lower corn prices supportive yesterday along with spillover support from Friday’s neutral to overall friendly Cattle on Feed report.
A recap of last week’s cash fed cattle trade shows Northern cattle mostly at $248 dressed, $3 lower than the week previous and Southern live trade mostly at $155, $1 lower. Volume last week totaled 63,454 head. Of that, 83% (52,835 head) were committed for the nearby delivery, while the remaining 17% (10,619 head) were committed for the deferred delivery. Show lists are smaller this week and asking prices are starting out sharply higher.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 01/21/2023
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week: 267,000 25,700 147,200 439,900
Last Week: 388,000 62,300 75,200 525,500
Year Ago: 248,000 17,900 4,700 270,600
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady to 4.00 lower.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/23/2023 – Prelim
This Week: 8,900 Last Week: 14,391 Last Year: 12,274
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifer are steady to 4.00 lower . Steer calves are trading steady to 4.00 lower and heifer calves are trading 12.00-14.00 with instances to as much as 19.00-22.00 lower. Demand light for calves. 7 weight index steers averaged $176-$177 and 8 weight index steers averaged $169-$175.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/23/2023 – Final
This Week: 3,016 Last Week: 4,342 Last Year: 2,931
Compared to last week: Steers Steady to 4.00 lower. Heifers 7.00-9.00 lower. Demand good. Quality good. 7 weight index steers average $156-$175.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/23/2023 – Final
This Week: 2,795 Last Week: 11,226 Last Year: 10,019
Compared to last week feeder steers and heifers traded steady. 8 weight index steers averaged $173.
Cattle slaughter on Monday estimated at 124,000 head, down 1,000 from last week but up 6,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Monday estimated at 489,000 head, up 65,000 compared to a week ago and up 37,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Monday lower on moderate demand with 107 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__271.44 -.28
Select Cutout__254.49 -1.94
CME Feeder Cattle Index__177.69 -.66
CME Lean Hog Index__72.13 -.52
Pork Carcass Cutout __80.92 +.93
February live cattle holding the long-term higher trend with the contract high at $159.17 back on December 29th. Last week’s low is now support at $155.37 with nearby resistance around $158. January feeders took out the higher trend last week with a new recent low at $177.55 with resistance at $182. February lean hogs also a new recent low last week at $76.40 and resistance around $82.
Grains under pressure to begin this week as all the focus remains on South American crops. Argentina received better than expected and beneficial rains over the weekend, more in the forecast later this week and Brazil’s early soybean harvest has started with better than expected yields being reported.
Export inspections for the week ending January 19th were better than expected for soybeans at 66.3 MBU but down 10 MBU from the week previous. Year to date is still running just 3% behind last year as China remains the #1 destination. Corn and wheat inspections were below expectations. Corn totaled 28.6 MBU, compared to 30.5 MBU last week, while year to date remains 30% behind a year ago. Mexico and Japan were to top 2 destinations. Wheat shipments totaled 12.3 MBU, slightly better than the week previous but still well under the weekly average needed now at 15.2 MBU. China will receive 2.8 MBU of grain sorghum after last week’s marketing year high export sales of 7.4 MBU. Year to date inspections though are still down 77% from last year.
Grains quietly higher overnight, trading within Monday’s trading range. All grains slightly higher with long term forecasts in Argentina dry. Equites were pointing higher overnight but shifted lower this morning, US$ steady to lower and energies mixed trading both sides of unchanged. Corn finished the overnight 1 to 3 higher, soybeans 4 to 8 higher and wheat 1 to 6 higher. USDA reported a private sale of 130,000 MT or 5.1 MBU of corn for delivery to unknown destinations.
Much below normal temps for the North and heavy rains in the Gulf over the next week. The 6–10-day outlook showing below normal temps to remain in the North and covering the western half of the U.S. with normal to above normal moisture across most of the country.
March corn a new recent low two weeks ago at $6.48 ¼ providing support with resistance at last week’s new recent high at $6.88 ¾. March soybeans holding the long-term higher trend with a new recent high last week at $15.48 ½, the contract high from June at $15.72 ¼ and support at $14.65. March KC wheat holding a lower trend since mid-October with support at $8.03 ¼ and resistance $8.66 ¼. March Chicago wheat also holding a lower trend with a new low yesterday at $7.12 ½ and resistance at $7.60. March MPLS wheat also a new recent low yesterday at $8.95 with resistance around $9.20. March soybean meal hit a new contract high last week at $487 with the spot high from August the next upside target at $531.20 and support down around $445.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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