Date: November 21st, 2022
Cattle futures finished higher on Friday to secure week over week gains. Lean hogs though pulled back on Friday and finished mixed for the week. Cash fed cattle trade adding another $1 to $2 compared to the week previous. Trade in KS and TX reported at $151 to $152 live while northern trade still holding a premium at $153 to $155 live and $242 dressed. A friendly Cattle on Feed report after the close could give cattle futures a boost to start this week. Cattle and calves on feed totaled 11.7 million head on November 1, 2022, 98% vs. a year ago and right line with expectations. Marketings of fed cattle during October totaled 1.80 million head, 1% above 2021 and also in line with expectations. Placements though were bullish at 2.11 million head, 6% below 2021 and 3% below the average trade estimate.
For the week, Friday November 11th through Friday November 18th, December Live Cattle +$1.55, February +$2.60, January Feeder Cattle +$2.20, March +$1.97, December Lean Hogs -$.12, February +$1.15. Boxed Beef, Choice -$4.07 @ $254.87, Select -$2.44 @ $232.83, Pork Carcass Cutout -$3.10 @ $93.44.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/13/22-11/19/22
Current Week: 36,547 Last Report 11/7/22: 40,934 Last Year: 43,615
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and steer calves steady. Feeder heifers steady to 2.00 lower. Heifer calves steady to 4.00 lower. Demand moderate to good. Unseasonably cool temps, rain and snow moved across the state this week, however not enough to hurt movement of cattle. Numbers continue to move thru area auctions as winter feed supplies remain a concern.
Ft. Pierre Livestock Auction (Friday) – Ft. Pierre, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/18/2022 – Final
This Week: 9,880 Last Week: 5,553 Last Year: 7,613
Compared to last Friday: Steers from 450 lbs to 499 lbs were 6.00 to 8.00 higher, steers from 500 lbs to 549 lbs were 2.00 to 4.00 lower, steers from 550 lbs to 599 lbs were 6.00 to 8.00 higher, steers from 600 lbs to 649 lbs were steady to 2.00 higher, steers from 650 lbs to 699 lbs were 6.00 to 8.00 higher; Heifers from 400 lbs to 549 lbs were 2.00 to 4.00 higher, heifers from 550 lbs to 649 lbs were steady to 6.00 higher. Good to very good demand for both yearling and calves today.
Cattle slaughter last week estimated at 674,000 head, up 3,000 from the week previous but down 6,000 from last year. Beef production last week estimated at 561.3 million pounds with year to date +1.4% vs. last year and slaughter +1.6%.
Hog slaughter last week estimated at 2,605,000 head, up 102,000 compared to the week previous but down 27,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 559.7 million pounds with year to date -2.4% compared to a year ago and slaughter -2.9%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday lower on Choice but higher on Select on moderate demand with 121 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__254.87 -2.23
Select Cutout__232.83 +1.09
CME Feeder Cattle Index__175.36 -.03
CME Lean Hog Index__87.77 -.37
Pork Carcass Cutout __93.44 +.81
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__81.81 -1.46, 4,746 head
December live cattle bouncing higher after testing support at $151 last week with the contract high from October 25th at $154.25 the next resistance. January feeders gapping higher on the open today, extending the recovery from a new recent low last week at $176.32 and breaking nearby resistance with the next up at $185.40. December lean hogs remain range bound with support around $83 and resistance at $87.57.
Grains mixed last Friday and for the week. Soybeans under the most pressure while wheat and corn futures peaked midweek. The missiles hitting in Poland early in the week confirmed to be from Ukraine not Russia. The most influential news story of the week came out early Thursday morning with the 120-day extension of the “safe corridor” shipping for Ukraine exports through the Black Sea. The two largest rail worker unions are expected to conclude voting by Monday to stave off a massive rail strike. Rains over the past week in Argentina were very much welcomed but more is needed to replenish early dry conditions. Argentina corn panting is way behind normal at only 25% complete. Conditions in Brazil remain mostly favorable but there are also some dry areas in need of better moisture.
The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed managed fund money through the trade week ending 11/15 as surprisingly big sellers of the grains. They sold 60.8k corn contracts (net long 176.8k), sold 3.8k Chicago wheat (net short 46.7k), sold 3.1k KC wheat (net long 21.2k) and sold 10.9k soybeans (net long 92.9k).
For the week, Friday November 11th through Friday November 18th, December Corn +$.09 ¾, March +$.07, January Soybeans -$.21 ¾, March -$.20 ½, December KC Wheat -$.09 ¼, March -$.15 ¼, December Chicago Wheat -$.10 ½, March -$.13 ¼, December MPLS Wheat +$.05 ¾, March +$.00 ½, December Soybean Meal +$3.00/T, January +$2.50/T.
Grains weaker overnight along with energies and U.S. equites pointing lower with the US$ higher. Corn finished the overnight 1 to 2 lower, soybeans steady to 2 lower and wheat 3 to 10 lower. Grains should be fairly quiet this week with markets closed Thursday and only open until 12:05 on Friday. Headlines though will be watched closely for any further escalation in Ukraine and of course the results of the rail union votes.
Wheat the leader lower overnight even with reports of shelling over the weekend at Ukraine’s nuclear plant, the largest in Europe. More pressing is the fact that Russia continues to discount its wheat, down another $3.5/MT from a week ago to $314/MT FOB. This compares to ordinary SRW FOB the US Gulf last Friday at $330/MT+.
U.S. weather wide open this week to wrap up fall harvest and fieldwork with rain chances isolated to the PNW and Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps across the middle of the country with normal to below normal moisture except for above normal moisture in the Northwest.
December corn holding support the past two weeks at $6.51 with resistance at $6.75. January soybeans dipping down to a new recent low last week at $14.06 ¾ with support next at $13.80 and resistance around $14.60. December KC wheat has support at $9.15 with resistance at $9.75. December Chicago wheat holding a lower trend and breaking the $8 mark for the first time since early September with support at $7.83 and resistance at $8.43. December MPLS wheat has support around $9.29 and resistance at $9.83. December soybean meal has support at $402 with resistance at $414.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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