Date: October 19th, 2022
Livestock futures higher again yesterday with grains lower and equites higher. Triple digit gains for all the feeders except the soon to expire October contract. Live cattle held modest gains as the market awaits what we hope is higher cash trade again this week. The nearby October contract yet again into a new contract high yesterday. Only light volume cash fed cattle trade reported in the WCB at $150 live as $150 and $151 passed so far in NE. Lean hogs continue to rally, now over $13 higher from the spike low earlier this month.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/17/2022 – Final
This Week: 6,579 Last Week: 8,521 Last Year: 6,290
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers 1.00 – 4.00 higher. Steer calves steady to 2.00 higher. Heifer calves 2.00 – 4.00 higher Demand moderate to good. Quality average to attractive. Most of the region received some much needed moisture over the weekend, with more in the forecast for the coming weekend. 7 weight index steers averaged $172-$173 and 8 weight index steers averaged $161-$170.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/17/2022 – Final
This Week: 4,159 Last Week: 4,269 Last Year: 4,276
Compared to last week: Steers 6.00-8.00 higher. Heifers 5.00-9.00 higher. Quality good. Demand good. Slaughter Cows mostly steady to 2.00 lower. Slaughter Bulls 7.00 higher
Tri-State Livestock Auction – McCook, NE
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/17/2022 – Final
This Week: 1,585 Last Week: 2,585 Last Year: 1,465
Not enough for comparison, except steers 450 – 550 were 3.00 – 12.00 lower, heifers were 5.00 – 9.00 lower on 400 lbs and 500 lb weights. Demand was good to moderate. 5 weight steer calves averaged $202-$210 and a light test on 7 weight index steers averaged $177.50.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/17/2022 – Final
This Week: 3,772 Last Week: 4,972 Last Year: 4,494
Compared to last week feeder steers under 525 lbs. traded steady to 4.00 higher with heavier weights 2.00-5.00 lower. Feeder heifers traded mostly steady to 4.00 lower. Extreme dry weather in the area causing ponds to go dry have brought cattle in maybe sooner than normal. Quality cattle are in good demand. On the other hand unweaned, non-vaccinated bull calves are very much less desired. 7 weight index steers averaged $172-$174.
Philip Livestock Auction – Philip, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/18/2022 – Final
This Week: 7,926 Last Week: 4,893 Last Year: 8,143
Compared to last week Feeder Steers under 400 Steady, 400 to 450 4.00 to 6.00 higher, 450 to 500 Steady to 2.00 higher, 500 to 600 3.00 to 5.00 higher, 600 to 650 1.00 to 3.00 higher, 650 to 700 4.00 higher, 700 to 750 Steady, over 750 were lightly tested, Feeder Heifers under 450 2.00 to 3.00 lower, 450 to 600 Steady to 2.00 lower, 600 to 650 4.00 higher, 900 to 950 Steady.
Cattle slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 128,000 head, again matching last week and up 7,000 from last year. Hog slaughter on Tuesday estimated at 490,000 head, up 1,000 compared to a week ago and up 10,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday higher on moderate to good demand with 135 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__250.78 +2.64
Select Cutout__221.28 +1.67
CME Feeder Cattle Index__172.27 -.81
CME Lean Hog Index__93.19 -.16
Pork Carcass Cutout __102.67 -.83
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__93.85 +7.61, 17,120 head
October live cattle still holding the long term higher trend with support at $145 and again a new contract high on Tuesday at $148.50. This is the highest spot price since August of 2015. October feeders holding a two month long lower trend with a new recent low last week at $171.45, the contract low at $168.87 and resistance at $176.62. December lean hogs holding a higher trend so far this month with support around $80 and resistance at $89.
Little fresh bullish news as fall harvest continues at a brisk pace and most of the talk yesterday was “harvest pressure” or “technical selling”. The charts have turned ugly with wheat breaking higher trends last week, corn taking it out this week and soybeans holding their lower trend and looking to test the support again at $13.50 on the nearby November contract. It hasn’t helped that China is now absent after coming in as big buyers of U.S. soybeans last week following their week long holiday. Points along the lower Mississippi setting record low water levels and delaying exports. The wheat markets even seem to be tired of the chatter surrounding Ukraine’s safe corridor for exports potentially not being renewed and the uptick in drone and missile strikes from Russia. U.S. weather still mostly dry for the balance of this week with rain chances for the Southern Plains starting early next week.
Grains were mixed overnight with soybeans the leader the lower, wheat higher and corn stuck in between trading both sides. Equities are lower this morning, US$ higher and energies higher with crude up $1. Corn finished the overnight 4 lower, soybeans 10 lower and wheat 4 to 8 higher.
Putin enacted martial law in the newly annexed areas of Ukraine. China delayed releasing quarterly GDP data amid their week-long congress of the Communist Party. This may have the soy complex a bit nervous as it could be bad news especially after the second quarter results only showed their economy growing by 0.4%.
Another night of well below normal temps across much of the country last night and dry weather until early next week when 1”+ rains expected from the TX Gulf up to the Great Lakes. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps for the western half of the U.S. and above normal temps for the eastern half and above normal moisture for all except in the Northeast.
December corn long term higher trend taken out this week but the shorter term and much flatter higher channel going back to late August still in place with support at $6.60 and resistance at the new recent high last Monday at $7.06 ½. November soybeans holding the 5-week long lower trend with support at $13.50 and nearby resistance at $14.14. December KC Wheat a new recent high last Monday at $10.37 ½ but falling back since and breaking the higher trend with support at $9.26. December Chicago also a new recent high last Monday at $9.49 ¾ with support around $8.30. December MPLS wheat has resistance at $10.24 and support at $9.37. December soybean meal has resistance at $419 and support at $392.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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