Date: June 1st, 2022
Red quotes filled the Ag commodity screens yesterday as we came off a 3-day weekend to wrap up the month of May. Yes, some could be position squaring for month end, but it seemed to be a bit aggressive. Grains led the way lower which made sense that feeders caught some support and were triple digits higher for the first couple hours of trading. That didn’t last though as even feeders could not even hold gains with all livestock futures finishing triple digits lower yesterday. Small volume cash fed cattle trade reported in KS and TX at $135, already $2 lower than last week.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/31/2022
This Week: 1,895 Last Week: 2,702 Last Year: 1,848
Compared to last week, steers sold steady and heifers traded firm to 5.00 higher. 8 weight averaging $144 to $152.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/31/2022
This Week: 1,652 Last Week: 5,285 Last Year: 2,812
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded 3.00-6.00 lower with most weights not well tested. Demand was moderate on a light supply. Receipts were lighter than normal as hay harvest started up across the Acorn Belt. 7 weight index steers averaging $156-$164 and 8 weight averaging $151.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 126,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and up 31,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 480,000 head, up 7,000 compared to a week ago and up 82,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday higher on moderate to good demand with 144 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__267.54 +2.12
Select Cutout__248.65 +2.15
CME Feeder Cattle Index__153.22 -.13
CME Lean Hog Index__105.15 +.22
Pork Carcass Cutout __107.71 +1.55
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__111.58 +1.90, 6,326 head
June live cattle down to a new 8-month low with support next at $128.30 and resistance at $134. August feeders showing a key reversal lower yesterday and holding a lower trend now for more than 3 months. The contract low from May 23rd at $162.80 with resistance at $168.50 then $170.25. Looking at the continuous weekly chart, support next at $159.50 then down at $153. June lean hogs testing the 3-week long higher trend with support around $105 and resistance at $111.60.
All grains were sharply lower led by the wheat markets as both KC and Chicago traded limit lower with July Chicago wheat closing there and July KC Wheat closing just one tick from it. Pressure came from a very wet Southern Plains, although way too late for some, along with the stories coming out that Russia wants to work towards allowing Ukraine to export through the Black Sea again. This of course would come with lifting of sanctions and who really knows if this is Ukraine exports or just Russia exporting Ukraine goods. Corn traded lower throughout the day as well as soybeans hit new highs in the overnight then flipped lower and now show key reversals lower on the charts.
Weekly export inspections for the week ending May 26th were all in line with expectations but also all lower than a week ago. Only corn and grain sorghum came in above their respected weekly average needed to meet the current USDA export estimate. Corn inspections totaled 54.8 MBU with over 10 MBU destined for both China and Japan. Year to date still down 17% from last year as USDA is estimating around 9% lower exports. Soybean inspections totaled 13.9 MBU with cargoes for Germany, China and Egypt. Year to date inspections are 13% less than last year with USDA’s estimate only down 5%. Grain sorghum inspections totaled 5.7 MBU, most of which to China. Year to date now down 1% with USDA estimating exports to be up 14% from last marketing year. Wheat inspections at 12.6 MBU with the marketing year ending yesterday. We will still have some old crop shipped in next week’s report and then will have to wait a couple months for Census to see where exports end up. Year to date inspections are down 21% with the export estimate down 19%.
Crop progress released Tuesday afternoon showed decent planting progress again last week and all in line with expectations. Corn planting nationwide now at 86% complete, just 1% behind the 5-year average. Corn emergence at 61%, up 22% from a week ago, but still behind the 5-year average of 68%. Soybeans planted also just a point behind the average at 66% complete. Emergence though still a few points behind at 39%. Spring wheat planted at 73%, a 24% increase from the week previous but still down 19% from the 5-year average. Emergence at 42% compared to 69% for the 5-year average. Winter wheat headed at 72% compared to 76% average and good to excellent conditions improved by 1 point to 29% with poor to very poor unchanged at 40%. Harvest as begun in OK for HRW and in the South for SRW.
Grains mixed to mostly higher overnight as we try to rebound from yesterday’s massive selloff. Equites pointing higher this morning along with crude but also the US$. Corn finished the overnight steady to 1 higher, soybeans 8 to 10 higher and wheat 5 to 10 higher. USDA announced this morning a private sale of 132,000 MT or 4.85 MBU of soybeans for delivery to China split evenly between old and new crop.
Scattered showers remain in the forecast this week then heavy rains for the weekend in the WCB moving into the ECB early next week. The 6-10 day outlook still showing below normal temps in North with above normal temps across the southern half of the U.S. and above normal moisture for the most of the country.
July corn holding a lower trend over this past month with a new recent low yesterday at $7.47 ¼, support next around $7.40 and resistance up at $7.80. The December contract hit a new contract high on May 16th at $7.66 ¼ but holding a lower trend since and honestly choppy trade over the past 2 months with support from $7.05 to $7.00. July soybeans a new contract high 2 nights ago at $17.49 ¼ with support around $16.70. The November contract also a new contract high at $15.60 ½ with support around $15.00. July KC Wheat a new all-time high for a July contract back on May 17th at $13.79 ¼ now testing support around $11.60 with nearby resistance at $12.50. July Chicago wheat a new contract high also on May 17th at $12.84 down to test support now around $10.80 with nearby resistance at $11.50. July MPLS wheat a new contact high May 17th at $14.12 ¾, support at $12.40 and nearby resistance at $13.20. July Soybean Meal with support at $410 and resistance around $440.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336
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