Date: May 11th, 2022
Livestock futures mostly triple digits lower on Tuesday as grains were steady to higher. Cash fed cattle trade starting yesterday on light to moderate volume in TX at $139 to $140 live and in KS at $140. This is steady to $1 lower with last week, but with futures remaining under pressure and plenty of supply available, I would not expect any better than steady money this week. Lean hog futures continue to press lower but cash prices have rallied recently as packers are still scrambling to find ready available supplies. Beef and pork prices both continue lower.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/9/2022
This Week: 6,532 Last Week: 8,762 Last Year: 6,086
Compared to last week: Feeder steers over 800lbs steady to 3.00 higher, under 800lbs. 1.00 – 4.00 lower. Feeder heifers unevenly steady. Steer and heifer calves 4.00 – 8.00 higher. Quality average to attractive. Demand very good and improved for calves following last week’s rain. 7 weight index steers averaged $155-$162 with the 8 weight index steers averaging $146-$149.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/9/2022
This Week: 2,372 Last Week: 1,087 Last Year: 1,745
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers sold with higher undertones. Black hided cattle are in biggest demand creating wide price gaps. Overall demand today was good. 7 weight index steers averaging $163-$169 and 8 weights averaging $153-$157.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/9/2022
This Week: 4,053 Last Week: 6,495 Last Year: 3,983
Compared to last week, feeder steers under 700lbs traded 4.00 to 6.00 higher and steers over 700lbs traded mostly steady. Feeder heifers traded from steady to 6.00 higher. Demand was moderate on a moderate to light supply. 7 weight index steers in Joplin averaged $157-$163 with the 8 weight index steers averaging $158.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/10/2022
This Week: 2,117 Last Week: 2,733 Last Year: 2,267
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady. Demand was good for a moderate supply. 7 weight index steers averaging $157-$168 and 8 weight averaging $156.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/10/2022
This Week: 2,781 Last Week: 1,691 Last Year: 2,464
Compared to last week, steers under 600lbs traded 2.00 to 4.00 higher and steers over 600lbs had little to compare to but traded with a firm undertone. Feeder heifers traded mostly steady to 4.00 higher, with 5 weight heifers up to 7.00 higher. Supply was moderate with good demand. 7 weight index steers averaging $164-$172 and 8 weight averaging $146-$149.50.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 125,000 head down 1,000 from last week but up 6,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 480,000 head matching a week ago but down 1,000 compared to a year ago. Monday revised 7,000 lower to 461,000.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday lower on very strong demand with 202 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__255.24 -3.05
Select Cutout__242.35 -.78
CME Feeder Cattle Index__156.33 +.12
CME Lean Hog Index__101.09 unchanged
Pork Carcass Cutout __100.19 -4.20
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__109.10 +2.27, 11,050 head
June live cattle near the lows from March at $130.97 on Monday with resistance at $135.50 then last week’s high at $136.27. May feeders still holding a nearly 3-month long lower trend with support at $156.22 then the contract low from last May down at $153 and resistance at $162.85. June lean hogs gapping lower on Monday, into new recent lows yesterday at $100.15 with support next around $95 and resistance at $107.50.
Grains steady to higher most of the trading session yesterday as planting progress was a bit lower than expected. Forecasts still look good this week to get quite a bit done, but scattered rains are back in the extended forecasts for most of the Corn Belt and Northern Plains. USDA will update domestic and world supply and demand on Thursday. This will be the first official balance sheet for the 2022/2023 marketing year. South American crop production estimates are expected lower and central Brazil, the largest 2nd crop corn area, still forecasted above normal temps and below normal moisture with harvest 45-60 days away.
Grains, energies and equities rallying overnight with the US$ lower. Wheat was the leader again for the grains. Equities fell off as April CPI higher than expected. Year over year, the Consumer Price Index now up 8.3% with food price inflation +9.4% which is the highest since April 1981. Corn finished the overnight 3 to 5 higher, soybeans 1 to 5 higher and wheat 3 to 10 higher. Crude oil currently $2 to $5 higher.
USDA Crop Report tomorrow at 11 AM CST, Average trade estimates as follows…
US 21/22 Corn ending stocks at 1.412 BBU vs. 1.440 BBU in April
US 22/23 Corn ending stocks at 1.352 BBU, production at 14.78 BBU vs. 15.115 BBU last year
Brazil 21/22 Corn production at 113.6 MMT vs. 116.0 MMT in April
Argentina 21/22 Corn production at 51.8 MMT vs. 53.0 MMT in April
World 21/22 Corn ending stocks at 303.8 MMT vs. 305.46 MMT in April
World 22/23 Corn ending stocks at 296.9 MMT
US 21/22 Soybean ending stocks at 225 MBU vs. 260 MBU in April
US 22/23 Soybean ending stocks at 317 MBU, production at 4.63 BBU vs. 4.44 BBU last year
Brazil 21/22 Soybean production at 124.3 MMT vs. 125.0 MMT in April
Argentina 21/22 Soybean production at 42.5 MMT vs. 43.5 MMT in April
World 21/22 Soybean ending stocks at 88.9 MMT vs. 89.58 MMT in April
World 22/23 Soybean ending stocks at 97.2 MMT
US 21/22 Wheat ending stocks at 685 MBU vs. 678 MBU in April
US 22/23 Wheat ending stocks at 660 MBU, production at 1.795 BBU vs. 1.646 BBU last year
US 22/23 Winter Wheat production at 1.24 BBU (HRW 685 MBU, SRW 360, White 199)
World 21/22 Wheat ending stocks at 278.3 MMT vs. 278.4 MMT in April
World 22/23 Wheat ending stocks at 272.1 MMT
Rain chances locally and scatter in the WCB in the forecast later this week as a cool front moves through. The 6-10 day outlook showing normal to above normal temps across the country with normal to below normal moisture. The international forecasts for most of Europe’s wheat areas and central Brazil’s 2nd corn crop areas still calling for below normal moisture.
July corn a new recent low on Monday at $7.69 with support next around $7.55 then $7.40 and resistance at $8.03 then the contract high from April 29th at $8.24 ½. The December contract also hit a new contract high on April 29th at $7.57, a new recent low Monday at $7.03 ¾ with support at $7.00 and resistance at $7.37. July soybeans holding a lower trend since April 22nd, finding support this week around $15.80 and resistance up at $16.60. The November contract still holding a long term higher trend with support tested at $14.38 on Monday and resistance at $15.00. July KC Wheat back testing resistance around the $12 level with support at $11.53 then $10.90. July Chicago wheat has support at $10.80 and resistance at $11.43. July MPLS wheat a new contract high on Monday at $12.34 ¾ with support at $11.54. July Soybean Meal into new 4-month lows yesterday at $398.60 with support next around $385 and resistance at $435.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336