Date: April 27th, 2022
Mixed livestock markets on Tuesday with mostly higher grains. Cattle futures started the week under heavy pressure stemming from a bearish cattle on feed report after the close last Friday and bearish outside market influence on Monday. Live cattle futures caught a bid yesterday as packers are still short bought and cash trade already developing this week at steady to higher money. Southern cattle began trading on Monday at $140 live, fully steady with a week ago as northern cattle trade followed at $1 to $2 higher from $144 to $146 live and $230 to $236 on a dressed basis. Feeders remained under pressure on Tuesday with grains higher. Most contracts are still $2 to $3 away from the recent spike lows from earlier this month and holding 2-month long lower trends.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/25/2022
This Week: 6,848 Last Week: 5,357 Last Year: 6,163
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers unevenly steady. Steer calves 10.00 – 12.00 higher. Heifer calves 2.00 – 5.00 higher. Demand moderate to good. Quality average to attractive. Demand for calves improved as moisture fell in some parts of the region while western Oklahoma remains extremely dry. 7 weight index steers averaging $162-$163 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $144-$149.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/25/2022
This Week: 3,361 Last Week: 1,856 Last Year: 1,155
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 2.00 higher, heifers steady to 4.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaging $158-$164 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $148-$160.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/25/2022
This Week: 4,849 Last Week: 4,088 Last Year: 4,825
Compared to last week feeder steers traded 2.00- 6.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded steady to 3.00 higher. 7 weight index steers averaging $160-$163 and the 8 weight index steers averaging $157.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/26/2022
This Week: 2,495 Last Week: 1,992 Last Year: 2,413
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded steady to 3.00 higher with most weights lightly tested. Demand was good on a light to moderate supply. 7 weight index steers averaged $160-$168.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 125,000 head up 1,000 from last week and up 4,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 480,000 head up 1,000 compared to a week ago but down 5,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday lower on very strong demand with 183 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__264.17 -2.43
Select Cutout__256.23 -.29
CME Feeder Cattle Index__156.12 -.40
CME Lean Hog Index__101.67 unch
Pork Carcass Cutout __105.55 -.24
National Wtd Avg Cash Carcass Base__103.03 +3.26, 8,295 head
April live cattle gapped higher last week for a new recent high at $144.22 then gapped lower on Monday to test support at $138.80. April expires this Friday, June will then become the front month with support at $134.50 and resistance at $140. April feeders expire tomorrow and should remain right around $156. May is holding a 2 month long lower trend but over the past couple weeks able to hold a slightly higher trend with support at $160 and resistance at $165. June lean hogs long term higher trend taken out with the past 2 days from the $7.60 combined loss. The next support level is down around $109 with resistance at $118.
Grains out of the gates strong yesterday as crop progress and conditions were again bullish Monday afternoon. Corn planting at 7% and soybeans at 3% still well behind last year and the average pace nationwide. Some prime examples are MN corn with 0% reported to be planted compared to 16% a year ago, IA at 2% planted vs. 18% and IL at 2% vs. 21% last year at this time. Wheat the leader in the grains yesterday as conditions continue to get worse for winter wheat and especially HRW. Good to excellent rated wheat dropped 3% to now only 27% nationwide and poor to very poor increased by 2% to 39%. Forecasts still cool and wet for the Corn Belt and Northern Plains but the western 1/3 of KS down into the TX Panhandle still only isolated chances of measurable rain expected over this next week.
Grains mixed again overnight with wheat backing off, soybeans higher and corn stuck in between but a much quieter overnight compared to the past few days. U.S. equites are higher this morning, US$ is higher and energies are lower.
Russia continues the assault in eastern Ukraine and along the Black Sea. I haven’t seen too many reports specific to grain facilities or logistics until this morning. Russia launched missile strikes destroying a grain facility and rail lines in Ukraine’s’ Odesa region. A bridge linking mainland Ukraine to ports on the Danube River was damaged. This was a strategic route for exports with the Black Sea ports still blocked.
Severe weather and heavy rains in the forecast beginning Thursday and heading into the weekend from the Northern Plains down into the WCB and the eastern halves of KS and OK. The 6-10 day outlook still showing below normal temps for the PNW and northern Border States with above normal in the Southern Plains and Southeast and above normal moisture centered on the Corn Belt.
May corn contract high last week at $8.19 ¾ and support at $7.83. The all-time spot high was back in August 2012 at $8.43 ¾. The December contract also hit another new contract high last week at $7.55 with the 20-day moving average providing support now at $7.20. May soybeans got within 2 cents of the contract high, $17.59 ¼ on February 24th, last Friday before reversing lower finding support at $16.85. The November contract has support at the 20-day moving average currently at $14.86 with resistance at last week’s high up at $15.41 ¼ then the contract high from February 24th at $15.55. May KC Wheat very choppy the past couple months with support at $11.28 and resistance at $11.98. May Chicago wheat trading a $2 range since mid-March with nearby support at $10.45 and resistance at $11.35. May MPLS wheat holding a higher trend over the past 4 weeks with support at $11.40, resistance at $12 and the contract high from March 8th up $12.11 ¾. May Soybean Meal holding a month long lower trend with support at $441 then $435 and resistance at $473.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
785-537-3336