Date: March 21st, 2022
Livestock futures finished the week with solid gains as cattle futures were higher week over week but lean hogs lower. Cash fed cattle trade mostly steady with the week previous at $138 live and $221 dressed. Packers were a little short bought though with light volume to end the week up to $140 live and $225 dressed.
For the week, Friday March 11th through Friday March 18th, April Live Cattle +$3.20, June +$4.12, March Feeder Cattle +$3.72, April +$4.35, August +$3.62, April Lean Hogs -$3.32, June -$2.10. Boxed Beef, Choice +$3.45 @ $258.16, Select +$1.54 @ $250.65, Pork Carcass Cutout +$2.40 @ $105.95.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/13/2022 – 3/19/2022
Current Week: 29,980 Last Report 3/7/22: 36,338 Last Year: 26,713
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers 2.00-4.00 higher. Steer calves 3.00-6.00 higher. Heifer calves 3.00-8.00 higher. Demand very good for all classes.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 100,000 head and Saturday only 44,000 head. For the week, 644,000 head, matching the week previous and up 15,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 540.9 million pounds with the year to date difference now +0.2% vs. last year and year to date slaughter only down 2,000 head.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 475,000 head and Saturday only 58,000 head. For the week, 2,435,000 head, down 40,000 compared to the week previous and down 89,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 530.6 million pounds with year to date pork production now -7.1% compared to a year ago and hog slaughter -7.2%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday higher on Choice and steady on Select on moderate demand with 95 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__258.16 +1.11
Select Cutout__250.65 -.03
CME Feeder Cattle Index__154.23 from 3/16/22
CME Lean Hog Index__101.36 +.59
Pork Carcass Cutout __104.95 -.25
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__ 103.70 -3.12 on only 4,024 head
April live cattle now holding a higher trend over the past couple weeks with nearby support around $138 and resistance at $141.50. March feeders still stuck in the lower end of recent trading with resistance at $158, support at $155 and the recent new low at $150.17. Deferred contracts look better with a higher trend holding from the new recent lows. The August contract now less than $7 away from the contract high back in mid-February at $187.10. April lean hogs consolidating recently between $99 and $104 after the recent pull back from the contact high back at $112.85 back on February 23rd. The June contract though is holding a two-week long higher trend with a new contract high last week at $122 and support around $116.
Moving over the grains, markets a bit less volatile last week, only 1 day of limit moves for wheat futures. Also the markets seemed to relax a bit as negotiations continue for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine yet Russia continues to push further into Ukraine and continues shelling areas. This could also be labeled as a very indecisive market right now. South American harvest continues with mixed weather, recent rains have stabilized additional crop loss and the 2nd corn crop in Brazil is off to a very good start. Most in the U.S. Southern Plains received decent moisture to end the week with more in the forecast this week.
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report for the week ending 3/15 showed managed money or funds adding 4.1K contracts of corn (net long 372.9K), adding 2.7K contracts of Chicago wheat (net long 22.9K), reducing their net long position of soybeans by 1K contracts (net long 170.6K) and reducing their net long position of KC wheat by 470 contracts (net long 44.2K).
For the week, Friday March 11th through Friday March 18th, May Corn -$.20 ¾, July -$.16 ¼, December -$.09 ¾, May Soybeans -$.08, July -$.05 ½, November -$.24 ¼, May KC Wheat -$.18 ¾, July -$.19, September -$.23 ¼, May Chicago Wheat -$.42 ¾, July -$.32 ½, May MPLS Wheat -$.10, September -$.06, May Soybean Meal -$.10, October -$7.10.
Grains back higher overnight and the fighting continues in Ukraine. Also over the weekend, a Saudi Arabian oil refinery was hit from missiles originating from Yemen. Crude charging higher today as well, now $4 higher and above $109 barrel with the spike two weeks ago topping out above $130 barrel. Corn finished 8 to 10 higher, soybeans 10 to 18 higher and wheat 15 to 30 higher.
Argentina opened back up exports of soybean meal and oil over the weekend but has raised the export tax to 33%. India still negotiating to export wheat to Egypt but the Philippines already jumped at the chance buying at least one cargo. No USDA flash export sales announced this morning although other sources reporting South Korea purchased a cargo of U.S. corn.
A wet forecasts over the next couple days for the southern Plains and Southeast along with scattered moisture for the WCB. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps west and below normal temps east with below normal moisture for the Plains and Corn Belt.
May corn new contract high on March 4th at $7.82 ¾ with nearby support at $7.28. The now expired March contract hit $8 on March 4th, the highest nearby price since September 2012. The December contract continues to trend higher with a new contract high overnight at $6.60 ¾ and nearby support at $6.29. May soybeans hit a new contract high back on February 24th at $17.59 ¼, closing in on the all-time nearby high from 2012 at $17.94 ¾. Support is down around $16.40. The November contract also hit a new contract high on the 24th at $15.55 with support around $14.50. May KC wheat a new contract high on March 7th at $12.99 ½. The all-time spot high from 2008 up at $13.84 ¾. The July contract up to a new contract high $12.59 on March 7th with support at $10.27. May Chicago wheat a new contract high on March 8th at $13.63 ½ with the expired March contract up to $14.25 ¼, the new all-time spot high. The July contract hit a new contract high that day as well at $12.78 ¼ with support at $10.13. May Mpls wheat a new contract high on March 8th at $12.11 ¾ with support at $10.26. May Soybean Meal a new contract high last Monday at $491.60 and support down at $466.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Tyson Loewen
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700