Date: February 15th, 2022
Optimistic livestock futures to begin this week as all but a few summer month hog futures finished in the green on Monday. Strong demand the supportive factor heading into this week as pork prices continue to trend higher and cattle slaughter finally pushing past a year ago levels with stronger prices. Negotiated cash fed cattle trade last week totaled 104,457 head of which 80% were committed for nearby delivery. Beef prices though have trending lower the past few weeks with steady cash so far the calls for this week.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 2/14/2022
This Week: est 13,500 Last Week: 1,830 Last Year:
Compared to last week’s light test: Feeder steers and heifers mostly steady to 2.00 lower. Decline on heavier weights. Stocker cattle and calves 2.00-6.00 higher. Again demand very good, especially for those in conditions suitable to return to grass.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 2/14/2022
This Week: 7,911 Last Week: 2,239 Last Year:
Compared to last week feeder steers under 550 lbs. traded 5.00-12.00 higher; with three weight steers trading 20.00 higher. Steers over 550 lbs. traded steady to 3.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded 2.00-5.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Monday estimated at 121,000 head, matching last week and up 44,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Monday estimated at 470,000 head, down 11,000 compared to a week ago but up 65,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values mixed, lower Choice and higher select on Monday on light to moderate demand with 76 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__273.96 -.56
Select Cutout__268.75 +.92
CME Feeder Cattle Index__163.16 +.52
CME Lean Hog Index__90.51 +1.59
Pork Carcass Cutout __107.98 -1.98, hams -10.59
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__ 86.51 +4.15 on only 5,559 head
February live cattle a new contract high last Friday at $143.62 with support tested yesterday at $141.32 and resistance next up around $151. March feeders still very choppy, with new recent lows on January 24th at $158.22, resistance at $169 and the contract high from last August at $171.57. All contracts April forward made new contract highs again last week and holding higher trends. April lean hogs now the front month with a new contract high last week at $107.70. Nearby support tested yesterday at $101 with resistance next up around $110.
Grains were mixed to begin the week as soybeans were the leader lower but both corn and wheat rallied into the close to finish the day in positive territory. A slightly wetter forecast than was seen heading into the weekend for Argentina was the most influential news. Export inspections for the week ending February 10th exceeded expectations. Corn inspections totaled 57.3 MBU, above the average needed per week as China popped up as the #1 destination with 16.3 MBU followed by Mexico at 13.6 and Japan at 11.5 MBU. Soybean shipments also remain strong at 42.4 MBU, China also the #1 destination at 18.7 MBU followed by a Italy at 4.6 and Mexico at 4.1 MBU. Wheat inspections just below the average needed per week at 16 MBU with over 2 MBU headed to Mexico, Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines.
Grains lower overnight as some reporting that Russian troops are pulling back from the Ukraine border. SovEcon also raised Russian wheat production by 3.6 MMT to 84.4 MMT with USDA last week still projection 75.5 MMT. Global equites higher overnight and U.S. markets higher this morning as crude shedding some risk premium, $3 to $4 lower. Wheat the primary leader lower overnight but soybeans also jumping on board with both finishing 14 to 18 lower and corn pulled with them to finish 6 to 11 lower. USDA reported this morning a private sale of 101,000 MT or 2.7 MBU of soybeans sold to Mexico split between this marketing year and next.
U.S. weather remains mild until later this week as much below normal temps come back into the Plains and Corn Belt bringing with it a chance of mixed precip from eastern KS and OK up through OH. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps west and above normal east with above normal precipitation across most of the country. South America forecast still showing some better rain chances for Argentina and central Brazil, below normal though for northwestern Argentina and southern Brazil.
March corn contract high last week at $6.62 ¾ with nearby support at $6.37 and $7.50 still the next upside target. December 2022 corn a new contract high yesterday at $5.98 ¾ with support down around $5.77. March soybeans contract high last week at $16.33 with support being tested yesterday and again overnight at $15.50. November 2022 soybeans contract high last week as well at $14.69 ¾ with nearby support at $14.23. March KC wheat still holding a lower trend the past 2+ months with support right around the $8 level and resistance around $8.30 then $8.50. March Chicago wheat also holding the lower trend with support at $7.80 and resistance around $8.20. March MPLS wheat with support around $9.30 and resistance around $9.75. March Soybean Meal contract high last week at $477.90 with support at $431.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700