Date: January 24th, 2022
Cattle futures finished the week lower as lean hogs extended their recent rally. Cash fed cattle trade steady last week at $136 to $137 live and $218 dressed. Weekly export sales for the week ending January 13th were fairly routine for beef and bullish for pork. Net beef sales totaled 12,800 MT while pork sales totaled 38,700 MT. Bearish Cattle on Feed report after the close on Friday. Cattle on feed totaled 12.037 million head on January 1, 2022, 1% percent above January 1, 2021. The inventory included 7.36 million steers and steer calves, down 1% from the previous year and 4.68 million heifers and heifer calves, up 2% from 2021. Placements in feedlots during December totaled 1.96 million head, 6% above 2020. Placements were the highest for December since the series began in 1996. Marketings of fed cattle during December totaled 1.86 million head, slightly above 2020.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 1/16/2022 – 1/22/2022
Current Week: 38,458 Last Report 1/10/22: 47,571 Last Year: 46,260
Compared to last week: Feeder steers under 800 lbs. steady 3.00 higher; over 800 lbs. 1.00-2.00 lower. Feeder heifers sold mostly steady. Steer calves mostly steady to 3.00 lower. Heifer calves steady to 4.00 higher. Demand, again good for all classes. Demand for calves still very good, despite dry conditions
For the week, Friday January 14th through Friday January 21st, February Live Cattle -$.05, April -$.02, January Feeder Cattle -$2.42, March -$3.07, February Lean Hogs +$5.30, April +$6.50. Boxed Beef, Choice +$8.10 @ $292.41, Select +$8.36 @ $282.33, Pork Carcass Cutout +$4.22 @ $93.29.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 114,000 head and Saturday at 61,000 head. For the week, 636,000 head, up 18,000 from the week previous but down 26,000 from last year. Beef production estimated at 535.5 million pounds bringing year to date down 8.6% vs. last year and year to date slaughter down 7.9%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 445,000 head and Saturday at 218,000 head. For the week, 2,440,000 head, up 74,000 compared to the week previous but down 278,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 531.4 million pounds bringing year to date down 15% compared to a year ago and slaughter down 13.6%.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday mixed with Choice lower and Select higher on light demand with 72 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__292.41 -.57
Select Cutout__282.33 +.15
CME Feeder Cattle Index__161.10 -.10
CME Lean Hog Index__77.51 +.72
Pork Carcass Cutout __93.29 +1.05, butt and ham over $8 higher
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__ 62.69 -3.87
February live cattle bouncing in a $6+ range since early November with support at $135.50, nearby resistance at $139.15 then the contract high from November 29th at $141.85. January feeders will expire later this week, testing support around $160. The March contract carrying the most volume now, choppy trade the past couple months as well with support also around $160 and resistance at $168. February lean hogs breaking above $85 for the first time in 3 months with resistance next at $87.45 then the contract high up at $90.97 and support around $80.50.
Grains mixed to end the week but still strong gains week over week. Export sales were decent with 14 MBU of wheat, 43 MBU of corn, 24.7 MBU of soybeans and a marketing year high of 18.8 MBU of grain sorghum. Rains and good coverage in South America this past week were the major news, private estimates should continue to come in lower though. Near perfect weather needed in South America for February to prevent more production loss.
For the week, Friday January 14th through Friday January 21st, March Corn +$.20, December +$.07, March Soybeans +$.44 ½, November +$.23 ¼, March KC Wheat +$.48 ¼, July +$.46 ¾, March Chicago Wheat +$.38 ½, July +$.37, March MPLS Wheat +$.57 ¾, September +$.41 ½, March Soybean Meal -$12.90/T, May -$10.70/T.
Grains were mixed overnight as all the grains opened higher but corn and soybeans drifted lower as wheat held gains. Argentina received a very beneficial 2 to 4 inches of rain over most of their major growing regions over the weekend. Corn finished the overnight 4 to 5 lower, soybeans 10 to 13 lower and wheat 2 to 6 higher. Equities pointing lower this morning with crude $1 lower and US$ higher.
USDA announced this morning a private sale of 132,000 MT or 4.85 MBU of soybeans sold to China split between this year and next and 150,000 MT or 5.9 MBU of corn sold for unknown destinations.
Russian troops remain a threat near the Ukrainian border and the U.S. State Department has ordered family members at the U.S. embassy to leave Ukraine which is never a good sign. Russian wheat prices weakened last week as the Ruble pulled back and U.S. wheat futures continue to rally.
U.S. weather looks to be mostly uneventful this week with much below normal temps in the North and a chance of light precip for the Southern Plains later this week. The 6-10 day outlook showing normal to above normal temps for the western half of the U.S. and below normal for the eastern half with above normal precip in the Northwest down through the Corn Belt and Central Plains and below normal in the Southwest and eastern quarter. Rains expected to continue this week in Argentina then reaching into Paraguay and southern Brazil later this week. Temps heat back up as well in the extended forecasts.
March corn a new recent high overnight at $6.19 ½, still holding the higher trend, support at $6.00 and the next upside target the spike high from June 10th at $6.33. March soybeans hit a new 7-month high last week at $14.29 ½, the contract high from June up at $14.45 ½ and support at $13.87 ½. March KC wheat still holding a lower trend the past 2 months with support around $7.50 and resistance at $8.20. March Chicago wheat looks similar with support next around $7.35 and resistance at $8.03 then $8.20. March MPLS wheat with support at $8.72 and resistance being tested at $9.50. March Soybean Meal tested support around $390 last week with resistance around $405.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700