Date: October 26th, 2021
The bullish Cattle on Feed report from last Friday triggered a gap higher open for cattle futures yesterday but follow through buying was limited as both fats and feeders finished with modest gains. Cold storage reported last week was also friendly with 6% less beef than a year ago. Lean hogs were mixed but mostly higher on limited volume. Pork still looking for increased demand as export shipments have been very good the past few weeks but sales volumes have pulled back. Pork carcass values still under heavy pressure as hams continue to slide sharply lower and weekly slaughter levels easing.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/25/2021
This Week: estimated 8,500 Last Week: 6,290 Last Year: 3,092
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 2.00 higher. Feeder heifers 2.00 – 4.00 higher. Demand moderate to good for feeder cattle. Cattle futures higher today following a bullish Cattle on Feed Report Friday. Steer calves 5.00 – 7.00 higher. Heifer calves 2.00 – 5.00 higher. Demand very good for calves under 500 lbs.; moderate for other weights. In most cases, un-weaned calves continue to see the typical big discounts from their weaned counterparts.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/25/2021
This Week: 4,137 Last Week: 4,276 Last Year: 2,276
Compared to last week: Steers 4.00-6.00 lower. Heifers mostly steady to 2.00 lower. Quality plain thru good. Demand good. Slaughter cows 4.00-7.00 lower. Slaughter bulls 2.00 lower.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/25/2021
This Week: 4,196 Last Week: 4,494 Last Year: 2,741
Compared to last week feeder steers under 600 lbs. traded 4.00-7.00 higher, heavier weights traded steady. Feeder heifers traded steady to 2.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Monday estimated at 122,000 head, up 2,000 from last week and up 6,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Monday estimated at 478,000 head, up 6,000 compared to a week ago but down 9,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values steady to higher on Monday on moderate demand with 136 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__283.04 +1.22
Select Cutout__263.19 +.08
CME Feeder Cattle Index__155.89 +.55
CME Lean Hog Index__82.98 -.72
Pork Carcass Cutout__94.58 -3.69
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__63.66 -1.97
October live cattle range bound from $126 to $124 the past couple weeks and expiring later this week. The highest volume December contract trading a range from $131 resistance to support at $128. October feeders also expiring later this week with support at $155 and resistance at $157. The November contract has resistance up around $162 with support also at $155 then $152. December lean hogs filling the gap and into a new recent low at $72.87 with support at last month’s low down at $71.27 and nearby resistance at $80.
Grains were steady to higher to start the week as wheat continues to make new highs. Weekly export inspections for the week ending October 21st were again impressive for soybeans at 77.3 MBU. Corn and grain sorghum were routine at 21.5 MBU and 3.2 MBU respectively but wheat inspections disappointing again last week at only 5.2 MBU with the average needed per week above 15 MBU.
After the close, USDA released its weekly Crop Progress report with fall harvest in line with expectations. Corn harvest advancing 14 points last week to now 66% complete nationwide. This compares to 70% last year and 53% 5-year average. Soybean harvest nationwide up 13 points last week to 73% complete compared to 82% last year and 70% average. Grain sorghum harvest up 12% to 71% compared to 72% last year and 60% average. Kansas is now 93% mature with harvest at 61% complete. Winter wheat planted adding another 10% to 80% compared to 84% last year and 80% average. Emergence at 55% compared to 60% last year and 59% average and conditions starting off better than a year ago at 46% rated good to excellent, last year was 41%.
Grains quiet overnight and pulling back some. Corn and soybeans finished the overnight 2 lower while wheat finished 3 to 7 lower.
USDA reported daily sales this morning of 125,730 MT or 4.6 MBU of soybeans sold for delivery to Mexico and 199,000 MT or 7.3 MBU of soybeans sold for delivery to China.
Cool and wet weather this week for the Plains and WCB. The 6-10 day outlook shows above normal temps in the Southwest and below normal across the middle half of the country with normal to below normal moisture.
December corn back to testing resistance from $5.40 to $5.48 ½ and support at $5.30. November soybeans holding a lower trend since the early June highs with new 6-month lows earlier this month at $11.84 ½ and resistance at $12.50. December KC wheat a new contract high on Monday at $7.82 ¼ with support at $7.40. December Chicago wheat a new 2-month high at $7.67, the contract high at $7.86 ½ and support at $7.35. December MPLS wheat another new contract high at $10.31 and support at $9.30. The next upside target is $10.35, the spot high from July 2012. December Soybean Meal bouncing off the new 12-month low at $309.3 on October 13th back to test the 1st of the month high with resistance next up at $345.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700