Date: October 20th, 2021
Livestock futures finished mostly lower for Tuesday and at or near their daily lows as selling pressure came in late in the trading day. Feeders started the day reversing from Monday’s losses and were triple digits higher early in the day but broke into new recent lows. The nearby October feeder contract has settled lower now 7 of the last 8 days after scoring a new recent high and back to testing support at $155. Cash feedlot trade so far this week began with a very small package of fed steers on Monday in IA at $125 followed up by small volume in NE at $196 dressed and in TX at $123 to $125 live, all steady with a week ago.
Winter Livestock (Tuesday) – La Junta, CO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/19/2021
This Week: 1,019 Last Week: 2,171 Last Year: 1,045
Compared with last Tuesday: Steer and heifer calves lightly tested. Yearling feeder steers steady to 1.00 higher except for 850 to 900 lb steers 5.00 higher, yearling feeder heifers mostly steady. Slaughter cows and bulls steady. Trade and demand moderate to good.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/19/2021
This Week: 2,047 Last Week: 1,819 Last Year: 1,665
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold steady to 4.00 higher. A mix of both calves and yearlings made up a moderate supply. Several smaller to medium sized groups of yearlings coming off grass are still showing up and finding very good demand, while the good grass and nice weather is keeping several calves at home. Calves sold with moderate to good demand.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/19/2021
This Week: 1,800 Last Week: 1,967 Last Year: 2,050
Compared to last week steer calves traded 3.00-6.00 higher while heifers calves traded steady to 3.00 higher. Demand was good on a light supply. Most weights were not well tested with few peewee and yearling calves in the offering.
Miles City Livestock Commission Auction – Miles City, MT
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/19/2021
This Week: 6,079 Last Week: 5,727 Last Year: 3,525
Compared to last week: Yearling steers were too lightly tested to develop an market trend. Yearling heifers were very lightly tested, lower undertones were noticed. Demand for yearlings was light to moderate on an average quality offering. Steer calves under 350 lbs were not well compared, lower undertones were noticed. Steer calves 350-449 lbs sold mostly steady to 5.00 lower, 450-599 lbs steers sold unevenly steady from 10.00 lower to 5.00 higher, steer calves over 600 lbs sold with higher undertones. Heifers under 450 lbs sold mostly steady to 5.00 higher, however instances of sharply higher prices were noted. Heifers 450-549 lbs sold unevenly steady from 3.00 higher to 4.00 lower. Heifers over 550 lbs sold with steady to weak undertones.
Philip Livestock Auction – Philip, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 10/19/2021
This Week: 8,143 Last Week: 8,227 Last Year: 7,340
Compared to last week: Feeder Steers under 450 Steady, 450 to 600 2.00 to 4.00 lower, 600 to 650 Steady, 650 to 700 3.00 higher, Feeder Heifers under 500 2.00 to 4.00 lower, 500 to 600 2.00 to 4.00 higher, 600 to 650 4.00 higher.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 121,000 head, up 1,000 from last week but down 2,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 478,000 head, up 1,000 compared to last week but down 12,000 compared to a year ago. Monday’s hog slaughter was adjusted lower by 6,000 head.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday higher, only the second time this month for Choice, on moderate to good demand with 147 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__280.88 +.79
Select Cutout__261.53 +1.72
CME Feeder Cattle Index__154.10 +.20
CME Lean Hog Index__86.63 -.25
Pork Carcass Cutout__99.34 -1.44, under 100 for the first time since March 12th
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__66.97 -.27
October live cattle testing resistance at $126, but unable to push through over this past week, support at $123. Only a week and a half left until expiration and cash still hanging on right at $124. The highest volume December contract also testing resistance right above $131 with support at $128. The higher trend is holding this month since hitting a new recent low down at $125. October feeders hit resistance just above $160 early last week and a lower trend holding since with support at $155, yesterday’s low, then last month’s low at $151.92. The November contract does not look as bad with support at $158 and resistance at $162.30. December lean hogs still range bound and positioned right in the middle of last month’s low down at $71.27 and the recent high at $85.67 with nearby resistance at $80 and support around $77.
A mixed day for the grains as corn, KC Wheat and Chicago wheat trading roughly dime ranges and finished slightly lower, soybeans and MPLS wheat though held decent gains for the day. Soybeans continue to recover from last week’s new low on report day as export sales and shipments have been strong this past week and world edible oils remain strong. KC and Chicago wheat futures did hit new recent highs yesterday but pulled back into the close as MPLS looks to test the new contract high hit last Friday. Corn futures also hit new highs during the day and continue their recovery from last week’s new recent lows. The general trend and already being discussed is next year’s corn acres to be lower than this year with increased input costs. This battle for acreage has already begun between corn and soybeans but will play out over the next few months taking into consideration the South American crop production potentials.
Grains higher overnight as energies are lower and the US$ higher. Malaysian palm oil futures up to a new record high close with strong October exports. Corn finished 2 to 4 higher, soybeans 7 to 10 higher and wheat 2 to 5 higher.
Chinese soybean imports in September down 18% from Brazil and down 85% from the U.S. Winter wheat planting in China only 26% complete compared to 53% average due to recent heavy and persistent rains. China also downplaying the weather impact to fall crop harvest though stating 80% has been harvested.
The U.S. forecast call for more rain for the Corn Belt heading into the weekend and early next week. The 6-10 day outlook still showing above normal temps across the majority of the country, below normal on the West Coast, with above normal moisture now across most of the U.S. with below normal in the Southwest and Northeast.
December corn still holding the long term lower trend with support around the $5 level and resistance at $5.48. November soybeans also holding the lower trend with new 6-month lows last week at $11.84 ½ and resistance at $12.50. December KC wheat holding a higher trend since early July with support around $7.20 and resistance around $7.60. December Chicago wheat also a long term higher trend with support at $7.12 and resistance around $7.60. December MPLS wheat another new contract high overnight at $9.81 ¼ and support at $9.30. December Soybean Meal bouncing off the new 12-month low last week at $309.3 with resistance around $325 then $345.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700