Date: August 4th, 2021
Livestock futures continued higher yesterday as grains were off. Cattle futures anticipating higher cash trade this week and beef continues to rally. Negotiated cash feedlot trade so far this week only light movement but steady to higher than a week ago. Nebraska/WCB trade at $125 live and $197 dressed. Texas Cash pool trade yesterday at $120 live compared to no trade the past couple weeks as bids were passed. Higher trends continue to hold for all livestock futures along with mostly friendly fundamentals.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/2/2021
This Week: 7,637 Last Week: 8,494 Last Year: 7,000
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers steady to 3.00 lower. Steer and Heifer calves 2.00 – 5.00 lower. Demand moderate.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/2/2021
This Week: 1,907 Last Week: 1,773 Last Year: 2,752
Compared to last week: Steers mostly steady to 3.00 lower. Heifers 4.00-6.00 higher. Demand good. Quality plain thru attractive. Slaughter cows 4.00-6.00 higher. Slaughter bulls 3.00-4.00 higher.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/2/2021
This Week: 4,295 Last Week: 4,683 Last Year: 7,030
Compared to last week feeder steers traded steady. Feeder heifers traded steady to 4.00 higher. Supply and demand moderate.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 8/3/2021
This Week: 3,006 Last Week: 2,044 Last Year: 4,217
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves traded mostly steady with spots 4.00 higher. There were too few yearlings last week for an adequate comparison, however undertones were steady to firm. Demand was good on a moderate supply.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 122,000 head, up 3,000 from last week and up 6,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 475,000 head, up 1,000 compared to last week and up 10,000 compared to a year ago. Monday’s slaughter though was adjusted lower, -3,000 head for cattle and -6,000 head for hogs.
Boxed beef cutout values on Tuesday continued higher on good demand with 130 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__285.84 +4.84
Select Cutout__267.49 +4.11
CME Feeder Cattle Index__156.15 +.57
CME Lean Hog Index__111.59 -.45
Pork Carcass Cutout__127.67 -1.04
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__100.40 -.60
August live cattle still holding the long term higher trend, contract high back on June 16th at $125.77, nearby support at $122 and resistance at $124. August feeders trending higher since early May with a new contract high last week at $163.15 and support at $157 then $155. August lean hogs holding a month long higher trend, volume already getting thin with expiration on August 13th. On Tuesday, we gapped higher, took out last week’s high which was nearby resistance and hit a new recent high at $109.37 with support at $105.
The soy complex led the charge lower over in the grains pulling all but KC wheat with it. KC Wheat the only to hold gains yesterday as world wheat values have been sharply higher this past week. Soybean conditions actually improved by 2% nationwide last week as corn conditions were reported as 2% lower. Higher rain chances in the forecast by the week’s end and into early next week across the Corn Belt and not solely residing in the ECB has provided some of the pressure. Soybeans, meal and oil all pressing lower to test recent support levels yesterday. Overseas markets also lower as concerns that demand may be backing off. Soybeans pushed through nearby support levels which brought on additional selling and appears to be a bit overdone so far. Private estimates coming out already ahead of next Thursday’s USDA supply and demand report. As a reminder, objective yield and actual field data will not be used until September, so this report is solely based on producer survey data, weather through the end of July and satellite imaging. It would not completing surprise me to see USDA leave yields unchanged again this month, but that might surprise the markets as most feel trendline yields are no longer obtainable.
Grains were fairly quiet overnight, trading both sides of unchanged. Corn finished steady, soybeans 2 to 4 higher and wheat steady to 6 higher.
Outside markets not friendly this morning with equites pointing lower and crude $2 lower. COVID concerns both domestically and overseas also still present and pressuring markets or at least for the time being sparking some fears and chatter about future lockdowns or restrictions.
Heat building back up to end this week and into the weekend. Scattered and light rain chances, more anticipated for the ECB vs. the WCB. The 6-10 day forecast calls for above normal temperatures for most of the country with below normal precipitation except for an area centered on the Great Lakes and stretching into parts of IA and into the ECB. The 7-day total precip map from the NWS yesterday has ½ to 1 ½ inch totals confined to WI, MN and IA.
September corn with support at $5.20 and resistance at $5.80. December corn with support at $5.40 and resistance up around $5.70. August soybeans now in delivery. November soybeans with support at $13.00 and resistance at $13.60. September KC wheat with the 5th consecutive trading day hitting a new recent high, $7.13 overnight with the next resistance up around $7.25 and support at $6.60. September Chicago wheat a new recent high yesterday at $7.34 ¾, resistance around $7.50 and support around $6.70. September MPLS wheat support at $9.00, resistance over this past week at $9.28 and the contract high from July 19th at $9.44 ½.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700