Date: July 12th, 2021
Livestock futures mixed last week as feeders and hogs able to hold weekly gains. Cash feedlot trade last week remains mostly steady. The full range of negotiated cash was $119 to $120 live in Texas, $118 to $122 in Kansas and $196 to $202 dressed in the North. Packers continue to hold the upper hand with supplies plentiful but volume has picked up. Beef demand must also pick up as prices have tanked the past few weeks and retailers still hold high priced inventory.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 7/4/2021 – 7/10/2021
Current Week: 9,255 Last Week: 21,786 Last Year: 24,242
Compared to last week: Feeder cattle and calves not well tested this week. Many auctions were closed due to the July 4th holiday or recent rains limited numbers at the few sales that were open. Feeder steers and heifers sold with a higher undertone and demand was very good. Slaughter cows sold 2.00-6.00 higher. Slaughter bulls steady to 2.00 higher. Demand also very good for the limited numbers of cows and bulls.
For the week, Friday July 2nd through Friday July 9th, August Live Cattle -$2.77, October -$2.50, August Feeder Cattle +$2.12, September +$2.40, July Lean Hogs +$9.05, August +$1.80. Boxed Beef, Choice -$6.85 @ $278.59, Select -$7.00 @ $257.41, Pork Carcass Cutout +$1.25 @ $116.44.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 120,000 head and Saturday at 95,000. For the week, 582,000 head, down 44,000 from the week previous and down 67,000 from last year. Beef production last week at 473.6 million pounds compared to 510.8 million the week previous and 542.4 million last year. Year to date beef production +5.3% compared to last year with slaughter +4.9%.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 463,000 head and Saturday at 55,000. For the week, 2,923,000 head, down 354,000 compared to the week previous and down 674,000 compared to a year ago. Pork production last week estimated at 406.7 million pounds compared to 485.4 the week previous and 552 million last year. Year to date pork production now only +0.5% compared to a year ago with slaughter +0.1%.
Boxed beef cutout values Friday continued lower on moderate demand with 109 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__278.59 -3.38
Select Cutout__257.41 -2.65
CME Feeder Cattle Index__152.77 +1.22
CME Lean Hog Index__109.74 -.03
Pork Carcass Cutout__116.44 -.45
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__116.08
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__111.86 +2.04
August live cattle still holding the long term higher trend with the contract high on June 16th at $125.77 but into new recent low last week at $118.85. August feeders also holding a higher trend with nearby resistance around $161, the contract high at $162.40 and support at $156.75. July lean hogs with support at $108.45 and resistance at $114.30.
Grains mixed to finish the week but under pressure most of last week. All grains gapped lower after the holiday weekend as weather forecasts added much needed moisture. USDA will update supply and demand later this morning with most looking for minor adjustments to both old and new crop. New crop yields will be the main interest of the markets as USDA does not typically make any adjustments in July. The average trade estimates though are looking for both corn and soybean yields to be lower than the previously reported trendline yields due to drought in the Northern and Western Corn Belt.
For the week, Friday July 2nd through Friday July 9th, September Corn -$.62 ½, December -$.62 ¾, August Soybeans -$.54, November -$.69 ¾, September KC Wheat -$.25 ¼, December -$.25, September Chicago Wheat -$.37 ¾, December -$.37 ¾, September MPLS Wheat -$.24 ½, December -$.24 ½, August Soybean Meal -$27.40/T, December -$29.40/T.
All but KC wheat trading higher in the overnight. Corn finished the overnight 1 to 2 higher, soybeans 2 to 4 higher and wheat 3 lower for KC, steady for Chicago and 7 higher in MPLS. Veg oils continue to trade higher with rapeseed oil gaping into new contract highs, palm oil stocks building but still trading higher and soybean oil back to within a few cents from the all-time highs seen back in June.
USDA pre-report average trade estimates
US 20/21 Corn ending stocks at 1.070 BBU, down from June’s 1.107 BBU
US 20/21 Soybean ending stocks unchanged from last month at 135 MBU
20/21 Argentina Soybean production at 46.7 MMT compared to 47.0 MMT in June
20/21 Argentina Corn production at 47.6 MMT compared to 47.0 MMT in June
20/21 Brazil Soybean production at 136.8 MMT compared to June’s 137.0 MMT
20/21 Brazil Corn production at 91.7 MMT compared to June’s 98.5 MMT (Brazil’s CONAB last week at 93.4 MMT)
US 21/22 Corn production at 15.11 BBU with yield at 178.7 BPA compared to 179.5 trendline yield and ending stocks at 1.36 BBU compared to last month’s 1.357 BBU
US 21/22 Soybean production at 4.39 BBU with yield at 50.6 BPA compared to 50.8 trendline yield and ending stocks at 147 MBU compared to last month’s estimate at 155 MBU
US 21/22 All Wheat production at 1.847 BBU compared to last month’s 1.898 BBU, Winter wheat output is seen at 1.330 BBU compared to last month’s 1.309 BBU, HRW at 786 MBU, SRW at 340 MBU, White wheat at 205 MBU, Other spring wheat production at 460 MBU and Durum wheat at 56 MBU, All wheat ending stocks at 725 MBU down from June’s 770 MBU
21/22 World Corn ending stocks at 286.5 MMT compared to June’s 289.4 MMT
21/22 World Soybean ending stocks at 92.6 MMT compared to June’s 92.55 MMT
21/22 Global Wheat ending stocks at 295.8 MMT compared to June’s 296.80 MMT
Over the weekend, rains blanketing the entire Corn Belt even clipping parts of the Dakota’s and Southern MN. Heavy rains still in the forecast for this week as well. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps and below normal moisture centered on the Northern Plains but also extending into the WCB with below normal temps and above normal moisture in the South.
September corn with support around $5.20 and resistance at $5.60. December corn down to a new recent low at $5.07 last week with support at $5.00 and resistance around $5.50. August soybeans forming a wedge with the lower trend going back to the May contract high but a higher trend holding since mid-June, support at $13.00 and resistance at $14.08. November soybeans have support around $13.10 and resistance at $13.73. September KC wheat with support around $5.88 and resistance at $6.12. September Chicago wheat with support around $6.00 and resistance at $6.50. September MPLS wheat with support at $8.00 and resistance at $8.60.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700