Date: May 26th, 2021
Livestock futures finished steady to higher yesterday as pressure on the grains allowed feeders to breakout higher. Cash feedlot trade so far this week at steady to $1 lower from last week at $119 to $120 live and $190 on a dressed basis. This kept the lid on live cattle futures advancing yesterday. Slaughter numbers will be down this week ahead of the Memorial Day holiday, although week to date is already higher than last week. Markets are closed next Monday and end of the month trading will be present this Friday which could increase volatility for the balance of the week for all markets.
Kingsville Livestock Auction – Kingsville, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/25/2021
This Week: 2,380 Last Week: 1,531 Last Year: 0
Compared to last week, steers sold steady to 3.00 higher and heifers traded steady to 5.00 higher. Demand was moderate to good.
Ozarks Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – West Plains, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/25/2021
This Week: 4,188 Last Week: 3,817 Last Year: 4,590
Compared to last week, steer calves traded 2.00-4.00 higher while heifer calves traded uneven from 2.00 lower to 2.00 higher. Yearling steers and heifers traded 2.00-3.00 higher. Demand was good on a heavy supply, including several drafts of yearlings.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/24/2021
This Week: 5,878 Last Week: 5,234 Last Year: 0
Compared to last week, feeder steers traded 3.00 – 7.00 higher. Feeder heifers traded 3.00 – 5.00 higher. Supply moderate with good demand.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/24/2021
This Week: 8,471 Last Week: 7,834 Last Year: 0
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 1.00-4.00 higher. Feeder heifers 4.00-6.00 higher. Demand good for feeder cattle. Steer and heifer calves lightly tested last week and few this week sold with a higher undertone. Quality average to attractive with several large strings of cattle offered.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/24/2021
This Week: 1,630 Last Week: 2,229 Last Year: 0
Compared to last week: Steers 4.00-6.00 higher. Heifers 3.00-5.00 higher. Demand good. Quality plain thru attractive. Slaughter cows 2.00- 4.00 higher in a light test. Slaughter bulls 2.00 lower, also in a light test.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/24/2021
This Week: 5,819 Last Week: 2,886 Last Year: 0
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 1.00 to 4.00 higher with the exception of 700-750 lbs steady to 2.00 lower and 800 to 850 lbs steady to 1.00 higher, heifers steady to 2.00 higher with the exception of 550-600 lbs 3.00 to 6.00 higher. Demand for this large offering of green, light fleshed cattle was good.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 121,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and up 14,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 485,000 head, up 19,000 compared to last week and up 70,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutouts higher Tuesday on light to moderate demand with 93 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__329.92 +2.09
Select Cutout__304.26 +.87
CME Feeder Cattle Index__136.31 +.65
CME Lean Hog Index__112.20 +.39
Pork Carcass Cutout__124.52 +2.31
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__112.85
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__107.42 -1.89
June live cattle holding support around $116 with resistance at $117.80 then from $119 to $120. May feeders expire tomorrow holding between $135 & $137. August will then become the front month which has held a higher trend since hitting a new recent low back on May 6th. Nearby support is at $152.50 then $150 with nearby resistance taken out yesterday, the next up around $158 and the contract high from April 8th at $162.40. June lean hogs hitting a new contract high yesterday at $115.55 and holding the higher trend this entire year. Support is at $111.60, convergence of the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, with the next upside target at $118.82, the spot high from August 2014.
Corn and soybeans actually started in positive territory the previous night, only beans holding gains in early morning trading. Mid-morning pressure spilled over led by the nearby July corn futures contract. No confirmations yet, but rumors were brewing that China will be cancelling some old crop corn purchases. As of last week’s export sales report, China still had nearly 400 MBU of outstanding sales with approximately 15 weeks left in the marketing year. Weekly inspections have shown over 30 MBU shipped to China 3 out of the past 4 weeks, which means they still could receive the balance remaining this crop year. Chinese corn futures were down hard the night before as they announced zero tolerance on corn futures speculation, banning banks from selling commodity linked investment products and that the five year plan will strive to build sold grain supplies and stabilize prices. Wheat was again a follower lower, heavy rains in the forecast for the Southern Plains pressuring KC wheat more so than MPLS wheat where rain is still only light in the nearby forecast and still much needed in the Northern Plains.
Overnight, corn stabilizing after touching and holding the Tuesday low, soybeans and wheat continued to leak lower. Corn finished 2 lower to 3 higher, soybeans 3 to 7 lower and wheat 1 to 5 lower.
News light again overnight. Markets are very oversold now heading into the end of the month and a 3-day weekend. Grain markets are in essence done trying to buy new crop acres and have possibly rationed enough old crop demand to feel comfortable that the current estimated ending stocks number at 1.257 billion bushels for corn and 120 million bushels for soybeans will hold. Could this sharp downturn though stimulate some additional demand? Soy crush plants have backed off the past couple months and exports are fairly slow with the new crop available and cheaper in South America. Export demand for corn though is still strong as well as positive ethanol plant margins and expanding consumption.
Heavy rains now in the forecast through June 1st for the Southern Plains. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the PNW and all the Northern Border States with below normal moisture and below normal temps with above normal moisture for the Southern Plains.
July corn breaking nearby support with the next at $6.00 and resistance around $6.50 then $6.75. December corn with support at $5.00 and resistance at $5.43 then $5.55. July soybeans trying to hold support around $14.90 and resistance around $15.50. November soybeans the last to break through the higher trendline with support next around $13.15 and resistance at $13.80. July KC wheat with support next at $5.84 and resistance at $6.31. July Chicago wheat with support around $6.25 and resistance around $6.70. July MPLS wheat with support at $6.50 and resistance at $7.05. July soybean meal down over $79/T in the past two weeks with support next around $375 and resistance around $403.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700