Date: May 24th, 2021
Livestock futures ended last week holding triple digit gains. Cash feedlot trade this past week steady to just a slightly lower undertone with live trade from $118 to $120, mostly $119, and dressed trade ranging from $188 to $193, most at $191. Beef and pork prices continue to rally with supportive domestic demand and export trade.
May Cattle on Feed
USDA Average Estimate
On Feed May 1 105% 103.7%
Placed in April 127% 120.8%
Marketed in April 133% 133.6%
May cattle on feed totaled 11.7 million head compared to 11.2 million last May but below the 11.8 million in May 2019. April 2021 placements totaled 1.82 million compared to only 1.43 million a year ago and 1.84 million in April 2019. Marketings at 1.94 million head compared to 1.46 million last year and 1.93 million in April 2019.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 5/16/2021 – 5/22/2021
Current Week: 25,325 Last Report: 24,842 Last Year: 42,020
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers mostly steady to 1.00 higher. Steer calves steady to 4.00 lower. Heifer calves sold 1.00- 3.00 higher. Demand moderate to good for all classes.
For the week, Friday May 14th through Friday May 21st, June Live Cattle +$2.37, August +$2.10, May Feeder Cattle -$.32, August +$2.55, June Lean Hogs +$5.50, July +$7.55. Boxed Beef, Choice +$8.23 @ $325.17, Select +$9.12 @ $302.31, Pork Carcass Cutout +$5.16 @ $120.86.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 119,000 head and Saturday at 78,000. For the week, 669,000 head, up 29,000 from the week previous and up 127,000 from last year. Year to date slaughter now +6.2% compared to last year. Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 463,000 head and Saturday at 32,000. For the week, 2,393,000 head, down 2,000 compared to the week previous but up 220,000 compared to a year ago. Year to date slaughter now +2.1% compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values Friday higher on light demand with 67 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__325.17 +.99
Select Cutout__302.31 +.70
CME Feeder Cattle Index__135.20 +1.34
Lean Hog Index__111.43 -.01
Pork Carcass Cutout__120.86 +1.64
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__112.77
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__106.8 -2.99
June live cattle holding a higher trend since the recent low from the first of the month with nearby support at $116 and resistance from $119 to $120. May feeders hit a new recent low on May 6th at $128.50, rallied as corn fell off sharply but very choppy trade last week with support at $135 and resistance up around $140. June lean hogs bouncing off the long term higher trendline after filling the gap left from the first of the month with support around $108 and resistance the contract high at $115.
Over in the grains, we ended the week on a mostly lower undertone although grains traded mixed and MPLS wheat futures able to hold gains as the Northern Plains still in a desperate need for rain. The wet weather continues for most of the Southern Plains and Corn Belt along with warmer temps. Corn held gains week over week as the majority of the pressure was on the soy complex then the wheat markets. Soybean basis has tanked both at interior processors and in the export channel as corn basis levels have mostly held firm.
For the week, Friday May 14th through Friday May 21st, July Corn +$.15 ¾, December +$.03 ¾, July Soybeans -$.60, November -$.40 ¼, July KC Wheat -$.33 ¾, September -$.32, July Chicago Wheat -$.33, September -$.29 ½, July MPLS Wheat -$.40 ¼, September -$.40 ¾, July Soybean Meal -$19.60/T, December -$7.20/T.
Overnight grains under pressure from favorable weather forecasts with corn finishing 9 to 14 lower, soybeans 7 to 12 lower and wheat 8 to 16 lower.
Egypt tendering for wheat this morning as Russian prices have fallen $12/MT this past week and Romanian wheat the lowest offer. No USDA export sales announced today, this is the second day in a row now with no new crop corn sales to China after the massive buying spree that began back on May 7th with over 400 MBU purchased.
Heavy rains in the forecast for the Southern Plains and Western Corn Belt, lighter amounts for the Eastern Corn Belt and Northern Plains. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps for the eastern third of the U.S. and in the PNW with above normal moisture from west TX up to the Great Lakes and below normal for the Southeast and PNW.
July corn holding support above the $6.30 area with resistance at $6.70. December corn with nearby support at $5.20 and resistance at $5.56 then $5.70. July soybeans with support at $15.00 and resistance at $15.56 then at $15.70. November soybeans the last to break the higher trendline last week with support next $13.15 and resistance at $13.80 then $14.20. July KC wheat a double top around $7.41 with support next at $5.84 then $5.60 and nearby resistance around $6.30. July Chicago wheat also a double top around $7.68 with support at $6.50 and resistance around $7.00. July MPLS wheat holding support around $6.86 with resistance at $7.26. July soybean meal breaking the $400 support level with the next down around $380 and resistance at $413.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700
