Date: April 30th, 2021
Cattle futures held gains yesterday as lean hogs were under pressure filling the gap left from a couple days ago. The selling in the hog futures came from hitting nearby technical resistance, fundamentals are still friendly. Corn jockeyed back and forth allowing feeder cattle futures then fats to find buying support. Cash feedlot trade picked up midweek mostly at $118 to $119 live in the South and $119 to $120 live along with dressed trade ranging from $188 to $195, mostly $190 to $191, in the North. These are all steady to $2 lower than last week’s trade.
Farmers and Ranchers Livestock Commission Co. – Salina, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/29/2021
This Week: 2,673 Last Week: 2,561 Last Year: 4,783
Compared to last week, Steers over 400 lbs were steady to 7.00 higher and steers 350 to 400 lbs were down 5.00. On the heifers 500 to 600 lbs were 3.00 to 6.00 lower and heifers 400 to 500 lbs were 4.00 to 5.00 higher, while heifers 600 to 850 lbs were steady to 4.00 higher. The demand was light with light to moderate receipts.
Winter Livestock – Pratt, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/29/2021
This Week: 4,541 Last Week: 5,455 Last Year: 3,226
Compared with last week, feeder steers 800 lb to 1050 lb sold 2.00 to 3.00 higher. Steers 550 lb to 800 lb sold steady. Steer calves 400 lb to 550 lb sold 2.00 to 5.00 higher on light receipts. Feeder heifers 700 lb to 900 lb sold steady to 1.00 higher. Heifers 500 lb to 700 lb sold 1.00 to 2.00 lower. Heifer calves 400 lb to 500 lb sold 4.00 higher on very light receipts. Demand was good. Slaughter cows and bulls sold steady.
Woodward Livestock Auction Feeder Cattle – Woodward, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/29/2021
This Week: 3,277 Last Week: 2,974 Last Year: 6,346
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers mostly steady. Steer calves mostly 4.00 to 6.00 lower. Heifer calves steady to 5.00 lower. Demand was moderate. Quality average.
Hub City Livestock Auction – Aberdeen, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/28/2021
This Week: 4,644 Last Week: 3,944 Last Year: 5,945
Compared to last week: best test on steers 650 to 900 lbs mostly steady with instances up to 2.00 higher on 750 to 800 and 850 to 900 lbs, 901 to 950 lbs 3.00 to 5.00 lower. Best test on heifers 600 to 700 lbs and 750 to 800 lbs 3.00 to 5.00 lower. Moderate to good demand for today’s offering of many loads and packages and several strings with best demand seen for light fleshed cattle which have the option to go to grass and replacement quality heifers.
Cattle slaughter from Thursday estimated at 119,000 head, up 1,000 from last week and up 36,000 from last year. Week to date at 477,000 head which is 1,000 less than last week. Hog slaughter from Thursday estimated at 481,000 head, matching last week and up 195,000 compared to a year ago. Week to date at 1,933,000 head which is down 3,000 compared to a week ago.
Boxed beef cutout values higher on Thursday with 125 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__293.76 +1.26
Select Cutout__279.79 +.79
CME Feeder Cattle Index__135.07 -.15
CME Lean Hog Index__106.89 -.12
Pork Carcass Cutout__107.55 -.66
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__117.09 +1.31
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__111.10 -.42
April live cattle expire today. June has lost around $10 since the contract high on April 8th at $125.62. Nearby support is now at this week’s low at $114.55 then around $112 from the beginning of the year with resistance around $120. May feeders are off nearly $20 this month with support at $133.50 then the contract low at $127 and resistance at $140.55 then $144. June lean hogs still holding the long term higher trend but strong resistance so far this month around $110 with support at $101.
Over in the grains, again corn traded back and forth with the nearby May contract still squeezing the shorts out. The bulls continue to tout the dry forecasts in Brazil for the second crop corn as bears point toward the mostly non-threatening weather here in the U.S. over the next couple weeks along with what should be some strong planting progress this week. Soybeans pulled back yesterday as they continue to correct after reversing lower on Tuesday. Wheat futures were mixed with KC futures lower but both Chicago and MPLS wheat higher. Recent rains across the western plains were a little better than expected which kept the lids on KC wheat futures.
Overnight all grains traded both sides of unchanged but mostly weaker on thin volume. Corn finished the overnight 1 to 3 lower, soybeans 4 to 11 lower and wheat 8 to 11 lower for KC and Chicago wheat while MPLS was mixed from 6 lower to 3 higher.
News light again overnight. Europe off work today and China from Monday through Wednesday next week. This is also the end of month after a very volatile trading week. Basis continues to improve domestically for corn as exporters still battle against ethanol plants for bushels. Only 66 soybean certs put out by Cargill along the Illinois River which will most likely get stopped quickly as basis levels are posted above delivery.
The CME will raise daily price limits effective Monday, May 2nd. Soybeans will go from 70 cents to $1.00, meal from $25 to $30, oil from 2.5 to 3.5 cents, corn from 25 to 40 cents and wheat from 40 to 45 cents.
Severe weather and heavy rains through May 3rd expected in the Southeast and heavy rains in the ECB early next week as well. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps in the Southern Plains and Southwest and below normal across the Corn Belt with above normal moisture in the Great Lakes, New England and Southeast and below normal across the Plains and WCB.
Today is first notice day for all May grain contracts, no daily limits on the front month and thin volume, so I will go through support and resistance levels on the heaviest volume July contracts. This is not to say that the technicals don’t matter any longer, they do, especially with this ongoing rally and where the highs end up. July corn hit a new contract high at $6.84 this week with support at $6.29 ½, this week’s low and the 10-day moving average. July soybeans also a new contract high this week at $15.74 ¾ with support being tested at $14.90. July KC wheat up to a new contract high this week at $7.41 ¼ and support at $6.81 ½. July Chicago wheat a new contract high this week at $7.69 ½ with support at $7.11. July MPLS wheat a new contract high this week at $7.73 ¾ with support around $7.25. July soybean meal holding support around $400 with recent high and resistance at $449 and the contract high at $458.20 back on January 13th.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700