Date: April 19th, 2021
Livestock futures were under pressure most of last week. Cattle futures hit new recent highs the week prior and lean hogs new contract and multi-year highs but follow through was nonexistent for all this past week. I wouldn’t say fundamental news was very impactful, but there are concerns about the size of China’s hog herd due to new outbreaks of ASF and of course COVID-19 is still a major concern in many parts of the world. Beef prices were steady to higher this past week along with mixed cash feedlot trade. Live trade from $120 to $124 and dressed trade from $194 to $196 was in the same range of the week previous, $1 off the top end of trade for KS and TX, but the average for the week looks to be steady.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 4/11/2021 – 4/17/2021
Current Week: 32,941 Last Report 4/5/21: 26,929 Last Year: 15,193
Compared to last week: Feeder cattle began the week steady to 3.00 higher, however corn prices moved higher and feeder cattle futures moved lower as the week progressed. Feeder steers and heifers finished the week 2.00-6.00 lower with light to moderate demand. Steer and heifer calves were unevenly steady.
For the week, Thursday April 9th through Friday April 16th, April Live Cattle -$2.57, June -$3.40, April Feeder Cattle -$5.12, May -$5.90, August -$5.40, June Lean Hogs -$7.25. Boxed Beef, Choice +$3.88 @$276.05, Select +$5.03 @ $269.10. Pork Carcass Cutout -$1.08 @ $112.09.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 113,000 head and Saturday at 70,000. For the week, 640,000 head, down 1,000 from the week previous but up 154,000 from last year. Year to date slaughter now only down 0.4% from last year. Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 468,000 head and Saturday at 75,000. For the week, 2,469,000 head, up 24,000 compared to the week previous and up 230,000 compared to a year ago. Year to date slaughter -3.4% compared to a year ago. Remember this week a year ago was the beginning of COVID-19 running through slaughter plants.
Boxed beef cutout values mixed last Friday with Choice lower and Select higher on light demand with only 88 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__276.05 -.57
Select Cutout__269.10 +.67
CME Feeder Cattle Index__141.68 -.62
CME Lean Hog Index__103.24 +.21
Pork Carcass Cutout__112.09 -1.28
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__105.84
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__104.49 +1.71
April live cattle holding support just above $120 last week with resistance at $124.57. April is currently in delivery and will expire at the end of the month. June was holding a higher trend going back to late October, but that was taken out with last week’s lows. Support next at $118 with resistance at $122.30 and the contract high at $125.62. April feeders tested the $148 resistance 2 weeks ago then proceeded sharply lower, through all the major moving averages with support next around $138.50. Deferred contracts continue to hold long term higher trends, but have been under pressure since new contract highs hit on April 8th. May lean hogs are now the front month but hardly carrying any volume. June is holding a higher trend since November with the contract high at $110.75, the technical target matching the spot high from the fall of 2014, support is at $98.
Grains were mixed on Friday, a little quieter trade to end the week, as new highs for corn were hit on Thursday, soybeans continue to recover and wheat is testing resistance levels. News fairly light for grains, the markets will be monitoring the weather as spring fieldwork is a bit behind and cold temps settled in this past week and into this week. Basis levels continue to firm as soy crushers compete against exports and ethanol plants against exporters for these next few months of domestic soy and corn supply. According to the CFTC commitment of trader’s report, managed money or funds through the week ending April 13th, added 15,300 contracts of corn, now net long almost 402k, sold 5,600 contracts of Chicago wheat and net short 13,200, sold 3,400 contracts of KC wheat but still net long 11,000 and sold 12,000 soybean contracts reducing their net length to 142,200.
For the week, Friday April 9th through Friday April 16th, May Corn +$.08 ¼, December +$.15 ¾, May Soybeans +$.30 ¼, November +$.10 ¾, May KC Wheat +$.22 ¾, July +$.22, May Chicago Wheat +$.13 ¾, July +$.14 ½, May MPLS Wheat +$.10 ¼, September +$.09, May Soybean Meal +$1.00/T, July +$.90/T.
Grains higher overnight led by soybeans with a gap higher move that was filled during the overnight trade. Dryness concerns creeping back in the mix in South America. Corn finished the overnight 7 to 9 higher, soybeans 8 to 10 higher and wheat 3 to 7 higher.
Crop progress and conditions will come out this afternoon with updates on corn planting, corn and wheat conditions and the first national number on soybean plantings. This cold snap has us behind some already but warmer and drier conditions expected midweek could easily get us caught back up. The 6-10 day outlooks finally shifting the below normal east, still over the eastern half of the U.S. though with above normal in the western third. Precipitation chances holding below normal from the Rockies through the Corn Belt with above normal only in the PNW and East Coast.
May corn hitting a new contract high last week at $6.01 ½ and December a new contract high overnight at $5.20. Support for the nearby May contract at $5.65 and for December at $5.04 then $4.91. May soybeans back to challenging the contract high hit in March at $14.60 with November testing the contract high from earlier this month at $12.85. Support for May at $14.12 with support for November around $12.45. May KC wheat bouncing off support at around $5.55 with resistance next at $6.30. May Chicago wheat also turning higher the past couple weeks with support around $6.20 and nearby resistance now being tested at $6.50. MPLS wheat has been the leader for the three wheat markets with the May contract adding $.74 since the first of the month and a new contract high overnight at $6.70 ½, support around $6.38 ½. May soybean meal holding support around $395 over this past month with nearby resistance at $404.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700