Date: March 16th, 2021
Cattle futures continued the rally from last Friday with most contracts trading triple digits higher. The best thing that can happen to the cattle market would be a breakout higher from the steady cash feedlot trade and along with another drop in carcass weights. Beef prices have fallen recently along with chainspeeds. Showlists do appear to be lower this week in all areas. Hog futures remain under nearby pressure although fundamentals remain supportive. Exports are bullish, cash and product trade continues higher.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 03/13/2021
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
THIS WEEK: 303,200 58,900 31,900 394,000
LAST WEEK: 282,800 56,700 12,900 352,400
YEAR AGO: 198,200 22,000 1,900 222,100
Compared to last week, steers and heifers sold uneven; 2.00 lower to 2.00 higher. Good demand for light weight cattle to background and the supply of these light cattle is tight. When numbers of grazing cattle show up at the auction, the competition is fierce to own them. A much greater supply of heavier, backgrounded steers and heifers exist nationwide as producers have worked years upon years to push weaning weights higher and higher as cow-calf producers get paid on weight. Demand was mostly moderate on the cattle bound for the feedyards, due to the supply abundance. A large offering in the auctions in the Northern Plains again this week as producers work to get their yards emptied out before new crop calves start
hitting the ground.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/15/2021
Total Receipts: 5,452 Last Reported 3/8/21: 11,387 Last Year: 1,724
Compared to last week, feeder steers and heifers traded steady with moderate supply and demand.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/15/2021
Total Receipts: 1,460 Last Reported 3/8/21: 4,045 Last Year: 514
Compared to last week: Heavy rain across the trade area kept receipts too few to establish a trend, however a lower undertone is noted on both steers and heifers. Demand good. Quality average thru good. Slaughter cows 3.00 lower in a light test. Slaughter bulls 2.00 lower also in a light test.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/15/2021
Total Receipts: 9,000 Last Reported 3/8/21: 13,686 Last Year: 1,208
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 2.00-3.00 higher. Steer calves unevenly steady with lighter weights 2.00-3.00 higher. Feeder heifers and heifer calves steady to 3.00 higher. Demand moderate to good for feeder cattle but remains very good for grass cattle. Quality average to attractive as we continue to see large drafts of cattle off wheat or winter pasture.
Cattle slaughter from Monday estimated at 113,000 head, down 8,000 from last week and down 5,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Monday estimated at 490,000, up 1,000 compared to a week ago but down 3,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Monday sharply lower with 103 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__224.77 -1.10
Select Cutout__218.05 -2.22
CME Feeder Cattle Index__133.93 -.20
CME Lean Hog Index__89.35 +.95
Pork Carcass Cutout__102.44 +4.14
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__88.99 +2.30
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__87.40 +3.00
April live cattle breaking trendline support last week with support holding around $118 then at $116.27 and resistance at $120.80. March feeders still range bound from $132 to $145 since early November. Nearby support is at $133.65, the low so far this month, with resistance at $138. April lean hogs hitting a new contract high last week at $91.70 with support around $85.
Grains were steady for the earlier morning trade but export inspections helped boost the nearby contracts. Corn inspections for the week ending March 11th were the 2nd highest weekly total on record at 86.8 MBU. Japan taking 20 MBU and both Mexico and China totaled 14 MBU a piece. The highest weekly total was back in November 1989 at more than 90 MBU. Grain sorghum inspections were double the average weekly need at 9.2 MBU, all destined for China. Even wheat inspections popped higher at 25.1 MBU and soybean inspections were 19.1 MBU.
NOPA domestic crush was the next report out yesterday but it did not impact the markets as the 155.158 MBU of soybeans processed in February was well below the average trade estimate. This is down 7% from a year ago and the lowest monthly figure in 17 months.
State updates on crop progress and conditions showed improving winter wheat conditions in KS and OK. The national report will not be out until April, yet some state reports are already reported weekly. KS winter wheat in good to excellent condition improved 2 points from last week to 38% and poor to very poor decreased by 5 points to 22%. OK winter wheat in good to excellent condition improved by 4 points to 57% with poor to very poor down 1 to 9%. TX winter wheat conditions were unchanged at 27% rated good to excellent and 39% poor to very poor. 22% of the wheat crop is headed compared to 7% for the 5-year average. Corn planting is at 26% complete and grain sorghum at 20%, both in line with the 5-year average.
Grains mixed to mostly lower overnight as corn finished 2 lower to 4 higher, soybeans 3 to 4 lower and wheat 4 to 8 lower.
Some very good news this morning as USDA announced a private sale of 1,156,000 MT or 45.5 MBU of corn for delivery to China. This is the first significant 8 am flash sale in over a month.
Rains continued through the ECB and Southeast yesterday. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps from KS to ND and East to New England and below normal on the West Coast and Southwest with above normal precip across the middle of U.S. with below normal on both coasts.
May corn holding support at $5.30 with resistance at $5.60. May soybeans still holding long term higher trend with support at $14.00, resistance around $14.45 and then the contract high from earlier this month at $14.60. May KC wheat breaking nearby support last week with the next down at $5.92 and resistance at $6.35. May Chicago wheat with support around $6.30 and resistance at $6.57. May soybean meal holding a lower trend since mid-January with support around $380 and nearby resistance at $420.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700