Date: November 7th, 2018
Cattle futures yesterday were mixed with most only trading $1 range but December lean hogs were limit lower and deferred contracts followed sharply lower. December lean hogs are now off $4 in the past 2 days and over $6 lower from the new recent high just last week. Cash markets have been lower now the past few days putting pressure on the futures. Only a couple thousand head of fat cattle have traded thus far this week in the North at $112 to $114 live, which is a bit softer than last week, and $180 on a dressed basis which is steady.
Oklahoma National Stockyards – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/5/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
9,992 11,636 10,644
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 600-850 lbs. 1.00-3.00 lower. 850-1000 lbs. firm to sharply higher with very few sales from last week to compare to. 600-700 lb. Feeder heifers likewise brought 1.00-3.00 lower, with heavier cattle unevenly steady on a very light test. Steer and heifer calves steady to 2.00 lower.
Tulsa Stockyards – Tulsa, OK
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 11/05/2018
Receipts: 3505 Last Week: 4836 Year Ago: 3683
Compared to last week: Steers 3.00-5.00 higher, with instances of light weight steer calves 9.00-12.00 higher. Heifers mostly steady with the exception of 500 lb. heifers having a much higher undertone noted.
Joplin Regional Stockyards – Carthage, MO
Livestock Auction Report for 11/5/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
5,437 5,527 8,877
Compared to last week, steer calves under 550 lbs steady to 4.00 higher, over 550 lbs steady, yearling steers 2.00 to 4.00 lower, heifers under 700 lbs 2.00 to 4.00 lower, over 700 lbs steady.
OKC West – El Reno, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 11/6/2018
Receipts Week Ago Year Ago
7,000 9,689 11,387
*** Final report including feeder cattle will be released 11/7/18 ***
Compared to last Tuesday: Steer and heifer calves sold 2.00-4.00 lower with exception of truly long weaned thin fleshed cattle trading steady.
Winter Livestock Inc – La Junta, CO
Feeder Cattle Weighted Average Report for 11/06/2018
Receipts: 1660 Last Week: 2381 Year Ago: 1391
Total receipts for Mon and Tues sale: 8748
Compared with last Tuesday: Feeder steers and heifers under 700 lbs too lightly tested for a comparison. Yearling feeder steers over 700 lbs scarce. Yearling feeder heifers 2.00 higher. Slaughter cows 3.00 to 4.00 lower. Slaughter bulls 2.00 to 3.00 lower.
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday is estimated at 119,000 head, up 2,000 from last week and last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday is estimated at 477,000 head, up 12,000 from last week and up 21,000 from last year.
Boxed beef cutout values steady on Choice and sharply higher on Select on moderate to good demand and moderate offerings for a total of 127 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__218.76 +.17
Select Cutout__204.66 +2.31
CME Feeder Index:__153.32 -.23
CME Lean Hog Index.__64.00 -.08
Pork Carcass Cutout__74.08 -.78
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Live__ 44.81 -.16, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__55.67 -.49
National Wtd Avg Live__ 45.40 -.53, Wtd Avg Carcass Base__55.80 -.55
December live cattle breaking through the $116 support on Monday with the next down at $113.40 then $111 and resistance up at $117. November feeders holding a lower trend since October 1st, also breaking nearby price support to start this week with the next down at $148 and resistance at $154. January looks similar with support at $146.20 then at $144.50 and resistance up at $151.20. December lean hogs again down the $3 limit yesterday with support next at $51.27 then $50.
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Grains were also mixed yesterday with corn and soybeans holding small losses and wheat futures small gains. I wouldn’t expect much until after the crop report this Thursday. Both corn and soybean yields are expected to be slightly lower than last month but soybean exports still need to pick up the pace or USDA will be making adjustments lower and increasing ending stocks. Wheat planting is behind with conditions worse than a year ago, this could decrease acres which is supportive to price but wheat exports are also poor so far this marketing year at 12-15 MBU per week when we really need to see 20-23 MBU shipped out per week. According to USDA on Monday there is still 1.4 million acres of wheat to plant here in Kansas.
Grains are already stagnant awaiting Thursday’s crop report with the overnight trade showing only 1 cent ranges for most contracts. Corn finished 1 lower, beans and KC wheat steady to fractionally lower and Chicago wheat steady to 1 higher.
Light rains then snow expected here in KS this week with heavy rains still in the forecast for the Eastern half of the U.S. The latest 6-10 day outlook showing above normal moisture south and east with below normal finally centered on the Corn Belt and for the PNW. U.S. Temps are forecasted well below normal central and east with above normal on the West Coast.
December corn back to a higher trend with support still at $3.60 and the next resistance up at $3.78 ½. January soybeans with support at $8.78 then around $8.45 and resistance up at $9 and $9.06. December KC wheat breaking into new recent lows last week at $4.84 ½, on a higher trend since with resistance up at $5.30. December Chicago wheat did not hit a new low last week, 2 weeks ago was the new recent low at $4.85 ½ and resistance from $5.27 to $5.31. December soybean meal with support at $302 and resistance at $316 then $327.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell / Matt Burgener
www.loewenassociates.com pete@loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700