Date: March 15th, 2021
Livestock futures finished last week mixed, but this time with cattle futures higher and lean hogs steady to lower. Live cattle higher and feeders were triple digits higher on Friday which was enough to score mostly positive gains week over week. Lean hogs were sharply higher already most of last week to secure weekly gains. Cash feedlot trade steady now for the sixth week in a row at $114 live and $180 dressed. Steady to $2 lower though on Thursday in the Western Corn Belt at $112 to $113 live and $178 to $180 dressed. Carcass weights have declined sharply to match a year ago levels. This along with tighter supplies could finally lead to a breakout higher.
Rumors are circulating of a new strain of African swine fever in China and some have reported culling of more than 6 million diseased sows. This is equal to the size of the entire U.S. population. The lean hog futures market has been shooting higher and if the rumor is validated, it could be very positive for beef. There has also been a new PRRS virus this winter here in the upper Midwest wreaking havoc on sows and piglets.
For the week, Friday March 5th through Friday March 12th, April Live Cattle -$.02, June +$2.42, March Feeder Cattle +$1.75, April +$4.20, August +$2.85, April Lean Hogs +$4.22, June +$3.57, April Pork Cutout Futures +$6.22. Boxed Beef, Choice -$5.46 @$225.87, Select Cutout -$.58 @ $220.27. Pork Carcass Cutout +$3.16 @ $98.30.
Oklahoma Weekly Cattle Auction Summary
AMS Livestock, Poultry, & Grain Market News
Oklahoma Dept of Ag Mrkt News
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/7/2021 – 3/13/2021
Total Receipts: 49,148 Last Reported 3/1/21: 45,702 Last Year: 25,170
Compared to last week: Combined weighted average for 7 auctions: : Ada, Apache, McAlester, OKC, OKC West, Tulsa, and Woodward. Feeder steers sold steady. Feeder heifers mostly steady to 3.00 higher. Steer calves steady. Heifer calves mostly steady to 5.00 lower. Demand mostly moderate for all classes.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 113,000 head and Saturday at 53,000 head. This brings the week to date to 647,000 head, down 18,000 from the week previous but up 6,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 489,000 and Saturday at 133,000. For the week, 2,583,000 head, up 20,000 compared to the week previous but down 56,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Friday again lower on Choice and steady to higher on Select on good demand with 134 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__225.87 -.80
Select Cutout__220.27 +.20
CME Feeder Cattle Index__134.13 +.28
CME Lean Hog Index__88.40 +.75
Pork Carcass Cutout__98.30 -1.39
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__86.39 -.85
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__84.40 -1.65
April live cattle breaking trendline support last week with support around $118 then at $116.27 and resistance around $121. March feeders still range bound from $132 to $145 since early November. Nearby support is at $133.65, the low so far this month, with resistance right around $138. April lean hogs hitting a new contract high last week at $91.70 with support around $85.
Grains were able to settle near unchanged last Friday, Chicago Wheat and Soybean Meal finished with small losses. This was actually a large reversal for soybeans and KC Wheat as both were under heavy selling pressure through the morning hours of trading. Grains week over week though were lower with most of the pressure coming from improved weather outlooks. Argentina can still benefit from some moisture which was added in the forecasts early last week. Brazil’s soybean harvest continues with most estimates near 50% complete but still well behind the average pace. The Southern Plains should get a decent amount of moisture over the weekend then into parts of the Corn Belt and Southeast into the mid part of next week.
Soybean oil was the leader again last week as we continue to see strong demand for global verg and oilseeds for food and biofuel needs. Oil closed at yet another new contract high last week with the oil share spread up to a 9 year high.
The weekly CFTC Commitment of Traders report through March 9th held no surprises as funds were small buyers of corn and soybeans and sellers of wheat yet still net long all grains.
For the week, Friday March 5th through Friday March 12th, May Corn -$.06 ½, December -$.02 ¾, May Soybeans -$.16 ¾, November -$.03 ½, May KC Wheat -$.22 ¾, July -$.23, May Chicago Wheat -$.14 ½, July -$.11 ¼, May MPLS Wheat -$.11 ½, July -$.09 ¼, May Soybean Meal -$17.50/T, July -$15.70/T.
Grains mixed to mostly lower overnight as corn finished 3 lower to fractionally higher, soybeans 3 to 7 lower and wheat 1 lower to 2 higher.
NOPA domestic crush out later today with the average pre report trade estimate at 168.6 MBU of soybeans processed in February. This is down from the 184.6 MBU in January but still a reminder that domestic soybean demand continues at a record pace this year.
The Colorado blizzard over the weekend came through with some areas receiving 2 to 3 feet of snow and Denver listing it as the 4th largest in history. Rains soaked the Southern Plains, Western Corn Belt and into Southeast. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps from KS to ND and East to New England and below on the West Coast and Southeast with above normal precip across the U.S. expect for the East Coast.
May corn holding support this past week at $5.30 with resistance at $5.45 then $5.60. May soybeans still holding long term higher trend with support at $14.00, resistance around $14.45 the contract high from earlier this month at $14.60. May KC wheat breaking nearby support last week with the next down at $5.92 and resistance at $6.35. May Chicago wheat with support around $6.30 and resistance at $6.57. May soybean meal holding a lower trend since mid-January with support around $380 and nearby resistance at $420.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700