Date: March 12th, 2021
Another mixed day for livestock futures as cattle continue to search for direction and lean hogs race higher. Cash feedlot trade steady now for the sixth week in a row at $114 live and $180 dressed. Steady to $2 lower though yesterday in the Western Corn Belt at $112 to $113 live and $178 to $180 dressed. Carcass weights have declined sharply to match a year ago levels. This along with tighter supplies could finally lead to a breakout higher.
Farmers and Ranchers Livestock Commission Co. – Salina, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/11/2021
Total Receipts: 3,417 Last Reported 3/4/21: 4,648 Last Year: 1,663
Compared to last week steers 400 to 550 lbs and 600 to 650 lbs were 4.00 to 10.00 higher and steers 800 to 1000 lbs were 1.00 to 3.00 higher. Steers 550 to 600 lbs and 650 to 800 lbs were 1.00 to 2.00 lower. Heifers under 600 lbs were 1.00 to 6.00 higher, heifers 600 to 700 lbs were 1.00 to 5.00 lower, and heifers 700 to 900 lbs were steady to 2.00 higher. Receipts were moderate with good demand.
Winter Livestock – Pratt, KS
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/11/2021
Total Receipts: 6,969 Last Reported 3/4/21: 7,454 Last Year: 2,976
Compared to last week, feeder steers 650 lb to 925 lb sold steady to 2.00 to 3.00 higher. Steers 925 lb to 1000 lb sold steady. Steers 500 lb to 650 lb sold steady to 2.00 lower. Steer calves 400 lb to 500 lb sold 6.00 higher on a light test. Feeder heifers 725 lb to 950 lb sold steady to 2.00 higher. Heifers 475 lb to 725 lb sold 2.00 to 3.00 higher. Heifer calves 300 lb to 475 lb sold 4.00 lower on a light test. Demand was good. Slaughter cows and bull 2.00 to 3.00 lower.
Woodward Livestock Auction Feeder Cattle – Woodward, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/11/2021
Total Receipts: 7,144 Last Reported 3/4/21: 7,765 Last Year: 4,112
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and steer calves steady. Feeder heifers 1.00-3.00 higher. Heifer calves 3.00-5.00 lower. Demand moderate to good. Quality average to attractive.
Cattle slaughter from Thursday estimated at 118,000 head, down 3,000 from last week and down 1,000 from last year. Week to date now at 481,000, down 4,000 from last week and down 10,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Thursday estimated at 496,000 up 1,000 compared to a week ago and a year ago. Week to date now at 1,961,000 head, down 21,000 compared to a week ago and down 7,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values on Thursday lower on Choice and higher on Select on good demand with 133 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__226.67 -.62
Select Cutout__220.07 +.25
CME Feeder Cattle Index__133.85 -.14
CME Lean Hog Index__87.65 +.89
Pork Carcass Cutout__99.69 +2.02
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__87.24 -.69
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__86.05 -.40
April live cattle breaking trendline support yesterday with the next support level down at $116.27 and resistance around $121. March feeders still range bound from $132 to $145 since early November. Nearby support is at $133.65, last week’s low, with resistance just above $138. April lean hogs gapping higher yesterday and hitting a new contract high at $91.70 with support around $85.
Fall crops held small gains yesterday but wheat remained under pressure. The heavy precip in the nearby forecast covering a large area in the Plains provided the most fundamental pressure yesterday. Winter kill will still be looked for as wheat emerges from dormancy but this early spring soaker should be very beneficial and much needed in many areas.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange decreased their 20/21 Argentina Corn production estimate by 1 MMT to 45.0 MMT and their 20/21 Argentina Soybean production estimate by 2 MMT to 44.0 MMT. USDA earlier this week left corn unchanged at 47.5 MMT and lowered the soybean estimate by .5 MMT to 47.5 MMT. Argentina Corn crop conditions dropped 8% this past week and soybean conditions dropped by 4%.
Grains mixed overnight as corn and soybeans stay in the red and wheat holds small gains. No the forecasts haven’t shifted, but 2 days in a row of double digit losses for KC wheat may be enough this week. Corn finished the overnight 3 to 4 lower, soybeans 6 to 8 lower and wheat steady to 3 higher.
Argentina’s forecast offers some beneficial rains has crops have struggled recently through another hot and dry stretch. Brazil soybean harvest and second corn crop planting continues to advance but also remains well behind the average pace.
Heavy snow expected over the weekend in parts of SD, NE and CO with heavy rain from there through the Southern Plains and into the Southeast into the middle of next week. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps across the central U.S. with above normal now moving in from the west and below normal precip from the Southwest up into the Northern Plains with above normal for the East Coast and PNW.
May corn holding support this past week at $5.30 with resistance at $5.45 then $5.60. May soybeans still holding long term higher trend with support at $14.00 and the new contract high last week at $14.60. May KC wheat breaking nearby support this week with $6.00 holding so far the past couple days and resistance at $6.35. May Chicago wheat with support around $6.30 and resistance at $6.57. May soybean meal holding a lower trend since mid-January with support around $400 and nearby resistance at $420.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700