Date: March 3rd, 2021
A mixed Tuesday for livestock futures as cattle traded both sides of unchanged, $1+ ranges for live cattle and $2+ ranges for feeders. Buying support for cattle futures still cautious as fundamentals are mixed and again looking for higher cash feedlot trade. Cash trade has stalled now the past few weeks at $114 live and $178 to $182 dressed. Lean hogs sharply lower yesterday has profit taking took hold even though pork prices continue to rally. April lean hogs have added over $20 from mid-January lows to the new contract high last week. We will see if the rally can hold as rumors are swirling that China may be getting hit with another round of African swine fever from this winter. Very few disease outbreaks are being officially reported as the general comments recently from Beijing continue to tout a return to pre ASF herd size.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER CATTLE SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 02/27/2021
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
THIS WEEK: 216,800 46,100 37,300 300,200
LAST WEEK: 77,600 18,300 1,900 97,800
YEAR AGO: 202,700 67,000 1,200 270,900
Larger auction receipts this week nationwide after the second lightest non-holiday receipt week in more than 10 years. No recent price comparisons in the South Central and Southeast regions, however a higher undertone noted on the grazing-type calves and a weaker undertone on the heavier two-way to yearling type steers and heifers. The North Central area auction markets were mostly mixed as some ranchers and feedlot operators will be dealing with muddy pen conditions as warmer weather late week has spread from the West to the East coast.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/1/2021
Total Receipts: 13,551 Last Report 2/22/21: 6,150 Last Year: 3,310
Compared to last week, steers under 600 lbs. traded steady with weights over 600 lbs. steady to 2.00 lower. Feeder heifers under 550 lbs. traded steady to 4.00 lower, while weights over 550 lbs. traded steady to 3.00 higher. Supply was heavy with good demand.
Oklahoma National Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Oklahoma City, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/1/2021
Total Receipts: 12,280 Last Report 2/22/21: 2,723 Last Year: 5,879
Compared to last week’s light test: Feeder steers traded 3.00-4.00 lower, feeder heifers lightly tested but sold 1.00-3.00 lower. Stocker cattle and calves steady to firm.
Tulsa Livestock Auction – Tulsa, OK
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/1/2021
Total Receipts: 3,311 Last Report 2/22/21: 860 Last Year: 1,782
Compared to last week: Following a light test last week with a higher undertone. Steers and heifers are both 8.00-10.00 higher. Demand very good. Quality mostly attractive. Slaughter cows mostly steady to 1.00 higher, following a light test last week. Slaughter bulls 4.00 higher.
Sioux Falls Regional Cattle Auction – Worthing, SD
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/1/2021
Total Receipts: 6,118 Last Reported 2/22/21: 5,817 Last Year: 2,427
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 3.00 to 7.00 lower except 450-500 1.00 to 2.00 higher, heifers steady to 3.00 lower except 450-550 1.00 to 2.00 higher. Another very large offering of attractive cattle this week. Demand for this large offering was very good.
Winter Livestock (Tuesday) – La Junta, CO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 3/2/2021
Total Receipts: 2,315 Last Reported 2/23/21: 1,335 Last Year: 1,437
Compared with last Tuesday: Feeder steers under 400 lbs 3.00 to 5.00 higher, 400 to 700 lbs steady to 2.00 higher except for 500 to 600 lbs 3.00 to 5.00 lower. Feeder heifers under 500 lbs steady to 3.00 lower decline on 450 to 500 lbs, 500 to 700 lbs 1.00 to 3.00 higher. Feeder steers and heifers over 700 lbs mostly steady. Slaughter cows and bulls steady
Cattle slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 123,000 head, up 1,000 from last week but down 1,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Tuesday estimated at 497,000 matching both last week and a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values sharply lower on Tuesday with 112 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__234.68 -4.35
Select Cutout__226.17 -1.47
CME Feeder Cattle Index__137.54 -.81
CME Lean Hog Index__81.90 +1.20 from Feb 26
Pork Carcass Cutout__94.87 +2.50
IA/MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__83.63
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__80.93 +2.28
April live cattle pressing trendline support dipping below $119 yesterday and now down over $7 from the contract high on February 16th. Nearby price support at $118.50 then $115.50 with resistance at $123. March feeders gapping lower yesterday into a new recent low with nearby support next the low from mid-January at $132.67 and resistance at $139. April lean hogs still holding a sharply higher trend since mid-January with support around $84. The new contract high from last week at $90.67 and resistance next up around $93, the spot high from the spring of 2019.
Grains higher yesterday as most contracts gain back all that was lost on Monday. South American weather still the focal point and threatening to soybean crops in Argentina/S Brazil with the pattern returning to mostly hot/dry for the next couple weeks. March is the main pod filling month for Argentina’s bean crop so the absence of moisture is not ideal. Northern Brazil continues to deal with too much moisture yet harvest and second crop corn planting progress is still being made, just very much behind normal. Brazil current vessel lineup has reached a record volume of 19 MMT or nearly 700 MBU soybeans due to the harvest delays and strong demand for the new crop supply.
Wheat remains a follower of the fall crops as the Southern Plains begin to see warmer weather bringing the winter wheat closer to exiting dormancy. Some dry pockets still persisting, but spotty light rains now entering the nearby forecasts.
Grains weaker overnight with corn finishing 3 to 7 lower, soybeans 8 to 10 lower and wheat 5 to 7 lower.
USDA yesterday reported its first 8 am flash export sale since February 12th with 175,000 MT or 6.9 MBU of new crop corn sold to Japan. Taiwan booked a cargo of corn from Argentina though for April/May shipment. No daily sales announced again today.
Private estimates starting to come in ahead of next week’s USDA supply and demand update with most looking at tighter U.S. corn and soybean stocks along with higher Brazil soybean production. The USDA attaché to Argentina filed a monthly report dropping soybean production another ½ MMT.
Very mild and spring like weather to continue for most areas this week, flooding in Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys. The 6-10 day outlook showing below normal temps for the western 1/3 of the U.S. with above normal central and east and normal to above normal precip for all except in the Southeast and East Coast.
May corn key reversal lower on Monday holding with support next down around $5.20 and resistance at $5.47 then $5.60. May soybeans still holding long term higher trend with a new contract high last week at $14.45 ¾ and support around $13.80. May KC wheat with support around $6.15 also hitting a new contract high last week at $6.64. May Chicago wheat with support around $6.40, resistance around $6.86 and the contract high from January 15th at $6.93. May soybean meal with support around $415, resistance at $442 and the contract high from January 13th at $463.60.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700