Date: December 22nd, 2020
Livestock futures mostly held onto gains to start the week although it was a shaky start. The closing of the Cargill beef plant in Ontario due to the COVID outbreak and the lockdown in the UK due to a new and more highly transmissible strain of COVID pressured all markets in the early trading. Both beef and pork prices rebounded yesterday and should hold their ground this holiday shortened week. Not to say that there still could be some holiday pressure, but at least to start we did hold support levels. Markets close at 12:30 this Thursday and closed Friday, Christmas Day. Last week’s negotiated cash trade only accounted for 60,552 head of which over 40K are for delivery 2 weeks out and the remaining are for delivery 15 to 30 days out. Showlists are larger for this week’s offerings and asking prices are starting around $112 live.
Joplin Regional Stockyards Feeder Cattle – Carthage, MO
Livestock Weighted Average Report for 12/21/2020
Total Receipts: 7,612 Last Week: 4,044
Special Note: This is the last sale at Joplin Regional Stockyards for 2020. JRS will be closed for Christmas and New Year’s. They will resume their regular sale schedule on Monday, January 4th, 2021.
Compared to last week, steers under 700 lbs steady, steers over 700 lbs and heifers (all weights) steady to 2.00 higher. Slaughter cows and bulls steady compared to last Wednesday’s sale. Demand moderate to good, supply heavy.
No report for OKC or Tulsa, next sales for both scheduled for Monday, January 4, 2021.
Cattle slaughter from Monday estimated at 119,000 head, down 1,000 from last week but up 2,000 from last year. Hog slaughter from Monday estimated at 487,000 head, down 2,000 compared to last week and down 9,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values Monday, sharply higher with 110 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__210.92 +2.29
Select Cutout__197.26 +2.99
CME Feeder Cattle Index__139.56 +1.08
CME Lean Hog Index__62.55 -1.17
Pork Carcass Cutout__72.34 +.87
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__51.23 +.23
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__50.58 -.51
December live cattle breaking nearby resistance last week and now premium to cash. February live cattle also breaking nearby resistance and the lower trend with support at $112.50 and resistance next up at the November high at $115.45. January feeders holding a higher trend since mid-October with support at $136.50 and resistance at $142. February lean hogs choppy the past 2 months with support at $63 and resistance at $67.
All markets started this week sharply lower. Soybeans though reversed higher with better than expected weekly export inspections at 93.1 MBU. China again the #1 destination taking nearly 54 MBU. Corn and wheat inspections were disappointing though at 30 & 14.4 MBU respectively. China also the #1 destination for corn at 10.7 MBU followed by Japan at 10.3 MBU whereas the #1 destination for wheat was only 3.3 MBU inspected for South Korea. Grain sorghum inspections totaled 5.3 MBU, most of which headed to China. The continued strong soybean shipments along with the announced $900B stimulus package were enough to offset the COVID risk headlines yesterday. The COVID relief bill includes $11.19B for pandemic related assistance to support producers. It appears there will be a $20 per acre payment for crops and supplemental assistance to cattle producers of $7 per head for calves up to $63 per head for slaughter ready cattle.
Overnight markets were mixed with corn and soybeans hitting new contract highs shortly after the open then pulling lower until coming back into positive territory around 7 this morning. Wheat was unable to follow, finishing 3 to 7 lower overnight.
Weekly export sales will be released tomorrow morning with grains closing at 12:05 on Thursday and of course closed Friday. January soybeans and meal first notice day is next Thursday, please look to exit or roll all positions prior to that as volume will be getting thin and daily limits will not be in place from then until the contracts expire.
Rains look to favor Brazil this week, although light and scattered, as Argentina is expected to remain dry and desperately needing some relief. Today is the first day of winter here in the U.S. with mostly mild conditions. The U.S. 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps through the central part of the country with below normal on both coasts and above normal moisture stretching across the majority of the country.
March corn hitting a new contract high overnight at $4.42 with support at $4.27. January soybeans, for the fourth consecutive trading day in a row, a new contract high at $12.52 ¼ with support around $11.80. March KC wheat with resistance at $5.88 and support at $5.57. March Chicago wheat with resistance at $6.22 and support at $5.90. January Soybean Meal also a new contract high at $415.90 and support around $390.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700