Date: November 9th, 2020
Cattle futures held small gains to end the week as lean hog futures were triple digits lower. Weekly export sales were again friendly for both beef and pork last week. Cash feedlot trade moved higher than the week previous with futures and beef prices higher. Trade in the South reported at mostly $107 live which is $1 higher than the week previous. Nebraska trade was reported at $107 live which was $2 to $4 higher and dressed trade at $167, $4 to $9 higher.
NATIONAL FEEDER & STOCKER SUMMARY – WEEK ENDING 11/06/2020
RECEIPTS: Auctions Direct Video/Internet Total
This Week: 222,900 26,800 18,800 268,500
Last Week: 187,500 11,100 2,100 200,700
Year Ago: 360,400 49,600 23,900 433,900
Compared to last week, steer and heifer calves sold 3.00 to 7.00 higher, with the most advance on the lighter weight calves. Yearling steers and heifers sold 2.00 to 5.00 higher as demand was good throughout the country this week. Buyers were very willing to bid up on calves this week in most areas nationwide after last week’s lackluster volume. The fall marketing season is progressing as reputation calves were in demand in the Northern Plains this week and marketing plans of cow-calf producers got back on track after some bad weather rolled through a couple of weeks ago. Many Northern Plains farmer-feeders have been fortunate enough to complete their corn harvest and are now taking the time to procure calves for winter feeding. Heavily hit drought areas in Nebraska and the Dakotas will no doubt show a lighter weight bawling calf coming off the cow, but those reputable calves will have some compensatory gain for the new owner provided that the health program is in order. Large piles of feed in areas this year have feeders hoping to rein in cost of gains, but December corn is more than 4.00 this week, near 0.85 more than the most recent contract low in early August. Closeouts in feedyards have been a concern as cattle feeders have struggled to keep their marketings current this year. The Southern Plains seem to be the most current at the present time as the percent Choice in the area has moved lower on the latest reported data. Dressed steer carcass weights have broken the record with 931 lbs being reported for week ending October 24, 2020. Cattle processors have continued to try and make inroads into the backlog of cattle from the spring and early summer.
For the week, Friday October 30th through Friday November 6th, December Live Cattle +$.35, February +$1.75, November Feeder Cattle +$.30, January +$1.80, December Lean Hogs -$.67, February +$1.47. Boxed Beef, Choice +$6.22 @ $214.32, Select +$7.25 @ $198.49. Pork Carcass Cutout +$.26 @ $84.06.
Cattle slaughter from Friday estimated at 109,000 head, down 5,000 from the week previous and down 9,000 from last year. Saturday was estimated at 59,000 head, bringing the week to date to 647,000 head, up 9,000 from the week previous but down 10,000 from last year.
Hog slaughter from Friday estimated at 488,000 head, up 3,000 compared to week previous and up 4,000 compared to a year ago. Saturday’s kill is estimated at 260,000 bringing week to date up to 2,713,000 head, up 30,000 compared to the week previous and up 15,000 compared to a year ago.
Boxed beef cutout values Friday, higher on Choice and lower on Select with 115 loads sold.
Choice Cutout__214.32 +1.77
Select Cutout__198.49 -.48
CME Feeder Index__136.63 -1.28
CME Lean Hog Index__71.12 -.40
Pork Carcass Cutout__84.06 -2.32
IA-S.MN Wtd Avg Carcass Base__60.51 +.28
National Wtd Avg Carcass Base__60.18 -.95
December live cattle with support at $107, the 20-day and 10-day moving average then $102.52, the October low, and resistance at $109.30 then $113. November feeders with support around $135 then around $129 with resistance at $140 then just shy of $145. December lean hogs breaking the long term higher trend with choppy, range bound trade the past few weeks from $64 to $70.
Grains finished last week on a weaker note but still held strong gains week over week. Little fresh news hit the markets on Friday as the markets kept an eye on election results and South American weather.
For the week, Friday October 30th through Friday November 6th, December Corn +$.08 ¼, March +$.10 ½, January Soybeans +$.45 ¼, March +$.51 ¼, December KC Wheat +$.14 March +$.15, December Chicago Wheat +$.03 ½, March +$.09, December MPLS Wheat +$.05, March +$.06 ¼, December Soybean Meal +$3.80/T, January +$8.70/T.
Overnight grains were mixed until the early morning hours with soybeans leading a charge higher. Corn finished the overnight 1 lower to 1 higher, soybeans 5 to 8 higher and wheat steady to 1 lower.
The biggest market news early this morning came from an announcement by Pfizer sending the DOW futures 1500 points higher. Their covid-19 vaccine has shown to be more than 90% effective in their large study data, adding they have found no serious safety concerns during the trial. They say they will seek US emergency use authorization later this month.
USDA announced a private sale this morning of 123,000 MT or 4.5 MBU of soybeans sold for unknown destinations.
Average trade estimates for the USDA November Crop Report, released tomorrow at 11 am…
US Corn yield 177.7 BPA compared to 178.4 BPA last month
US Corn production 14.659 BBU compared to 14.722 BBU last month
US Corn ending stocks 2.033 BBU compared to 2.167 BBU last month
US Soybean yield 51.6 BPA compared to 51.9 BPA last month
US Soybean production 4.215 BBU compared to 4.268 BBU last month
US Soybean ending stocks 235 MBU compared to 290 MBU last month
World Wheat stocks projected at 319.78 MMT, +35.77 compared to 2 years ago
World Corn stocks projected at 296.37 MMT, -23.44 compared to 2 years ago
World Soybean stocks projected at 87.44 MMT, -25.6 compared to 2 years ago
Weekend rains were limited and spotty in both Brazil and Argentina with nearby forecasts showing improved chances. Heavy rains still in the forecast over the next couple days from the WCB into the Great Lakes. The 6-10 day outlook showing above normal temps from the Rockies to the East Coast with above normal moisture on both coasts and below normal centered on the Southern Plains.
December corn with support at $3.93 and resistance at the 15-month hit last month at $4.22 ¼. January soybeans hitting a new contract high overnight at $11.18 with support at $10.45. December KC wheat still holding the higher trend going back to early August with support at $5.32 and resistance around $5.80. December Chicago has held a higher trend since late June with support at $5.87 and the contract high hit in October at $6.38 ¼.
Loewen and Associates, Inc.
Pete Loewen / Matt Hines / Doug Biswell
www.loewenassociates.com matt@loewenassociates.com
866-341-6700